$10 NLHE 6-max: Flopped FD turns a possible bluff opportunity

PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100.5 BB (VPIP: 21.67, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 10.71, hands: 61)
SB: 89 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
BB: 109.8 BB (VPIP: 15.36, PFR: 12.13, 3Bet Preflop: 5.22, Hands: 381)
UTG: 125.2 BB
MP: 101.5 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
Hero (CO): 128.4 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J:heart: 9:heart:

fold, MP raises to 2.5 BB, Hero calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) Q:heart: 4:club: 4:heart:
MP bets 4 BB, Hero raises to 11.8 BB, MP raises to 35 BB, Hero calls 23.2 BB

Turn: (76.5 BB, 2 players) Q:spade:
MP checks, Hero bets 90.9 BB and is all-in,

Here I think given the flop action, villain almost never has Qx in his hand.

turn ship looks fine as played, I'm more interested in the raise/call line on the turn, i would either be r/fing or calling, as on a pair board we don't even have bd2p draws which hurts us a bit,

Im not sure I like this hand so much. What do you think his betting and raising on the flop means here? He is saying he has something decent why are we not believing him? We have no stats to show his tendencies to make player reads. Even if we hit the flush we might still be beat and we can't bluff him off a Q. I prefer saving my big semi bluffs for when Im drawing to the nuts.

Figaroo2 said:

Im not sure I like this hand so much. What do you think his betting and raising on the flop means here? He is saying he has something decent why are we not believing him? We have no stats to show his tendencies to make player reads. Even if we hit the flush we might still be beat and we can't bluff him off a Q. I prefer saving my big semi bluffs for when Im drawing to the nuts.

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Yes he has something decent, that much is obvious. You think he is raising Qx on the flop there?

I think he raises the flop with AA/KK a very random and unlikely 4x and other FDs possibly. I don't think Qx 3 bets the flop, so I think its mostly an overpair.

AQ also plays this way and is around too often for my liking. Sure he more than likely has an overpair but I just think there are better spots.

once we get to the turn AND he checks i like the shove, its the flop play I'm not sold on

duggs said:

once we get to the turn AND he checks i like the shove, its the flop play I'm not sold on

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I called because he had basically turned his hand face up. I think it's pretty marginal looking back.

it also makes some of our outs dirty. i don't like raise/calling flop at all

duggs said:

it also makes some of our outs dirty. i don't like raise/calling flop at all

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Yeah you're right. It's a fold on the flop I think. Jamming is bad obv.

Im a spewtard though so my fold button doesn't always work.

i tihnk your hadn is pretty face up here too though. as villain id hero off turn w 55-JJ.

i tihnk i prefer flat flop and raise turn regardless of what peels

JCgrind said:

i tihnk your hadn is pretty face up here too though. as villain id hero off turn w 55-JJ.

i tihnk i prefer flat flop and raise turn regardless of what peels

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That's a very good point, thanks.

youregoodmate said:

Yes he has something decent, that much is obvious. You think he is raising Qx on the flop there?

I think he raises the flop with AA/KK a very random and unlikely 4x and other FDs possibly. I don't think Qx 3 bets the flop, so I think its mostly an overpair.

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I think if you're trying to convince opponents to fold AA/KK at 10nl by selling them that you have one narrow range, it will end up being a spew fest long term. Just mho.

John A said:

I think if you're trying to convince opponents to fold AA/KK at 10nl by selling them that you have one narrow range, it will end up being a spew fest long term. Just mho.

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generally yes, but double paired boards would be an exception wouldn't it?

duggs said:

generally yes, but double paired boards would be an exception wouldn't it?

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The board wasn't double paired until the turn. I don't know if you can make a typical 10nl villain fold AA/KK if the board doesn't run out so well...

loafes said:

The board wasn't double paired until the turn. I don't know if you can make a typical 10nl villain fold AA/KK if the board doesn't run out so well...

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i know that, the board can't be double paired before the turn. hence my comment saying I'm not sold on flop but fine with turn. also raising flop clearly isn't with the intention of trying to fold over pairs

duggs said:

generally yes, but double paired boards would be an exception wouldn't it?

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No, I think it makes it worse. It cuts down on the opponents combo's when that happens.

John A said:

No, I think it makes it worse. It cuts down on the opponents combo's when that happens.

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how?