$10 NLHE 6-max: Flop nut str8, best value vs reg?

fletchdad

fletchdad

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Want best value here, is a call and a small bet OTR best, cause if I raise his min raise OTT, isnt he folding most of his range here?

Or do I believe he is semi bluffing w/ FD enough and just raise it here? $$ in his range but such a small part.


full tilt poker $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2073619
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $18.23 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 14, 3B: 8, AF: 1.3, hands: 452
SB: $10.00 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 14, 3B: 3, AF: 2.2, Hands: 584
BB: $24.18 - VPIP: 42, PFR: 32, 3B: 9, AF: 3.0, Hands: 297
Hero (UTG): $10.54 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 14, 3B: 6, AF: 2.3, Hands: 61996
MP: $11.85 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 17, 3B: 5, AF: 2.7, Hands: 439
CO: $10.68 - VPIP: 12, PFR: 4, 3B: 6, AF: 1.7, Hands: 84

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG with Q :diamond: K :diamond:
Hero raises to $0.30, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.30, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.75) 9 :club: J :spade: T :diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets $0.50, BTN calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.75) 4 :spade: (2 players)
Hero bets $1.10, BTN raises to $2.60, Hero ?, BTN folds
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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if I raise his min raise OTT, isnt he folding most of his range here?

Well you can't answer that without knowing what his range consists of.

...well, what do you think his range consists of for flatting that action flop then raising a blank turn (omitting the BDFD)?
 
forsakenone

forsakenone

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I think I would ship turn. his aggression factor is 1.3 so I think with his raise on the turn he has something good enough to call like 2 pair or a set. his 1.3 AF doesn't tell me he is capable of raising with a draw on the turn.

I guess I am just paranoiac, but I have made this call here many times just so they can hit the river for a full boat, or a back door flush, or even a split if he has something like QJ, or even worse he could turn a bigger straight on riv if he has AQ.

I vote ship.
 
ChuckTs

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What draw even makes it to the turn? AsQs? Maybe a really weird 6s7s?

That's 2 combos of drawing hands that play this way, but realistically more like .5 or just no combos of hands. 67s folds flop usually, and neither hand always raises turn once it gets there. Nobody turns QJ/AT/KT/89s/whatever into a semibluff at these stakes, and if they do, it's because they don't know what they're doing and end up calling it off after you shove.

This is 2pair+ almost always in my experience. Shove.
 
fletchdad

fletchdad

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Well you can't answer that without knowing what his range consists of.

...well, what do you think his range consists of for flatting that action flop then raising a blank turn (omitting the BDFD)?

Pre, I am guessing all PP, big BWs, obviously a lot less combos out there now, He is 3bet 8% overall and 7% from the BTN, so maybe ATs - AJ will call, but IDK.78, 89, 9T, TJ. Probably all s.

His range is pretty much sets and SD, 2P OTF, with an occasional overcard w/BDFD.

But what is your take on my take? I am in a rush so need to read this in more detail later.
 
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ScottishMatt

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You got the nuts and a passive player wants to get his money in the pot. I just shove here. He has to have 2 pair minimum, maybe he decided to play AA tricky. Yeah either way you should just get it in. Can't see how calling is ever more EV than shoving.
 
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js520

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I don't know if 2pair or a set is actually very likely here since u would expect 2pair/set to raise on the flop since it's so wet and the 4 can't have improved his hand unless he has picked up a bdfd along with his pair likes ATss or A9ss and he's turning it into a semi bluff. Could also have like 88 maybe but there really isn't many hands I can see his guy having. Even so I probably would just ship it since we're oop and hope he calls with his pair+fd or whatever, if we were ip id almost certainly just call and let him fire on the river.
 
ChuckTs

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But what is your take on my take?

Pretty much this:

You got the nuts and a passive player wants to get his money in the pot. I just shove here. He has to have 2 pair minimum, maybe he decided to play AA tricky..

Your range looks fine, Jay. Now take that range, look at what continues on the flop. Hand by hand.

[Some nitpicking:

His range is pretty much sets and SD, 2P OTF, with an occasional overcard w/BDFD.

What hand(s) is this (are these) specifically?]

Now look at what part of the flop peeling range that raises the turn.

Sets. Worse straights. Two pair. Overpairs. Pair+draw. And finally, making up maybe <%5 of his range, AsQs.

What's the best course of action against that range?

I tend to answer HH posts with a little bit of a condescending tone - it's not intentional, just a way of getting you to think the way I think one should about a hand analysis.

  • What are my reads on him?
  • What's his range on each street up to this point?
  • What's his range at the point I'm having to make a decision?
  • What do each individual hand type in that range do vs my various possible actions?
  • Taking all this into account, what play yields the highest return?

It's also much easier to coach someone when they're very clear about these steps and where they're having trouble. "I can't get a good read on him preflop, so I'm not sure what he has postflop", or "I know what his range is but have trouble with the math side so I'm not sure what my equity is like postflop", etc
 
fletchdad

fletchdad

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Pretty much this:



Your range looks fine, Jay. Now take that range, look at what continues on the flop. Hand by hand.

[Some nitpicking:



What hand(s) is this (are these) specifically?]

Now look at what part of the flop peeling range that raises the turn.

Sets. Worse straights. Two pair. Overpairs. Pair+draw. And finally, making up maybe <%5 of his range, AsQs.

What's the best course of action against that range?

I tend to answer HH posts with a little bit of a condescending tone - it's not intentional, just a way of getting you to think the way I think one should about a hand analysis.
  • What are my reads on him?
  • What's his range on each street up to this point?
  • What's his range at the point I'm having to make a decision?
  • What do each individual hand type in that range do vs my various possible actions?
  • Taking all this into account, what play yields the highest return?
It's also much easier to coach someone when they're very clear about these steps and where they're having trouble. "I can't get a good read on him preflop, so I'm not sure what he has postflop", or "I know what his range is but have trouble with the math side so I'm not sure what my equity is like postflop", etc


OK, first off, no condescending tone IMO. I am posting to get responses. Yours are constructive and informative. I think if we want to be pampered, we go somewhere else, dont we??;)

Good food for thought, I think I shoot to quick from the hip a lot. I dont get into detailed thinking, its more like "Am I ahead here enough", and often does not go much deeper than that.
 
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