$10 NLHE 6-max: Flop a set - valuetown until flush river?

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ScottishMatt

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poker stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2239415
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CO: $9.75
BTN: $19.81
SB: $7.49
Hero (BB): $10.00
UTG: $6.09
MP: $13.33

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with 6
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6
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UTG raises to $0.30, 1 fold, CO calls $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($1.25) 5
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6
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A
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(4 players)
Hero bets $0.80, UTG folds, CO calls $0.80, BTN folds

Turn: ($2.85) 8
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(2 players)
Hero bets $2, CO calls $2

River: ($6.85) J
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(2 players)
Hero bets $2.50, CO raises to $5, Hero folds

Guy is an unknown but we see he is flatting some hefty sized bets. We can assume he is a fish because of this and make a small valuebet OTR right?

I know, great odds you gotta call etc etc but he never has worse with a river min raise here.
 
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DunningKruger

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Man I dunno lol (hopefully your smallish "I definitely don't have a flush" bet on the river didn't induce a raise). I mean, $2.50 to win $16.85?? Just counting card combos this seems criminal. Give him every pair of diamonds in the deck (92dd, you name it) and AJ as the only hand you beat and it's still a call mathematically. I'm just not sure how you can say an unknown "never" has worse. I've seen players do some pretty ridiculous things myself.
 
John A

John A

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If you're going to lead the flop I'd lead smaller to induce a raise, or larger to get value. On the river I'd bet call larger. Stack sizes kind of suck, and if you had bet flop and turn larger from the start, you could just shove the river. As played definitely call. Someone could value min raise some two pair combos often enough for these odds.
 
Deco

Deco

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Man I dunno lol (hopefully your smallish "I definitely don't have a flush" bet on the river didn't induce a raise). I mean, $2.50 to win $16.85?? Just counting card combos this seems criminal. Give him every pair of diamonds in the deck (92dd, you name it) and AJ as the only hand you beat and it's still a call mathematically. I'm just not sure how you can say an unknown "never" has worse. I've seen players do some pretty ridiculous things myself.

Ditto
I check raise the flop as our position relative to the preflop raiser is perfect for it. If the opener doesn't bet the other players have ample oppurtunity them selves, if he does we act last before our raise so we don't cut anyone out.
 
Aleksei

Aleksei

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If you're going to lead the flop I'd lead smaller to induce a raise, or larger to get value. On the river I'd bet call larger. Stack sizes kind of suck, and if you had bet flop and turn larger from the start, you could just shove the river. As played definitely call. Someone could value min raise some two pair combos often enough for these odds.
Finally someone better than me telling this guy he's an effing nit.

Like seriously wtf. You see ghosts in every board. Try and get a little thin value, it won't kill you.
 
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