$10 NLHE 6-max: FH facing huge overbet shove on the river..deep..

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RamdeeBen

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Gah!


What the hell is this lol.

Ok from my previous experience with this player, he is a terrible player in general but I feel there is no way on earth he can possibly shove anything other than a pair of 33's or 9,7 in this spot.

He doesn't raise a ton, however he's played like nearly 40% of hands..limp/calls a ton preflop etc..

This might sound very contradictory to what I said about him being a bad player, but I was thinking if he actually does think I have a nine here then he's likely to jam if he has those two combos of hands that has us crushed as I can't see anything else doing this :(

Or the other alternative is that he is that bad where he isn't thinking of my hand and just jams 9,x in this spot..

What are you thoughts?

Can you find a fold? Is it an easy fold/easy call or what..



poker stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em $0.02 Ante - 6 players - View hand 1868955
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $25.00
BTN: $24.08
SB: $15.81
BB: $10.00
UTG: $16.45
MP: $21.93

Pre Flop: ($0.27) Hero is CO with 9 :diamond: T :diamond:
1 fold, MP raises to $0.40, Hero calls $0.40, 1 fold, SB calls $0.35, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.42) 3 :club: 9 :spade: 3 :diamond: (3 players)
SB checks, MP bets $0.80, Hero calls $0.80, SB folds

Turn: ($3.02) 7 :spade: (2 players)
MP bets $0.80, Hero calls $0.80

River: ($4.62) 9 :club: (2 players)
MP bets $19.91 all in, Hero ?
 
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RamdeeBen

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Thinking about it more, the only thing I can beat here is a complete bluff or we're splitting the pot at the very best if these spots if played over and over.

I just feel someone surely doesn't jam 200bb on the river as a bluff randomly, so yeah some thoughts on this hand would be very interesting.
 
youregoodmate

youregoodmate

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So you're effectively calling $20.00 to split the $4.62. After rake thats still profitable considering how rarely you're beat here and the odd chance he's spazzing with an overpair (unlikely). For me its a call, he probably has a 9 aswell.

If he doesn't raise much can we not take 97 out of his range?
 
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RamdeeBen

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I considered the rake which is likely to be $1.00+

That's the thing though, we're playing deep stacked 250bb not 100bb.I think it's a snap call everytime when 100bb deep cash...but I think it's different here just based of the stack sizes we have.


As I say, 9x is possible...it just makes no sense why he would jam. Surely he wants "value" from say, something lol not sure what! Jamming just basically says he's got 33 or 9,7 and if he's thinking of my hand being 9x...I call most times ? (that is, IF he's thinking in this spot)


He doesn't raise much..but he's playing nearly half his hands, he just completes the SB which is going to be wide, so there's a chance he's completed with 9,7. // 3,3.


I'm unsure as to how you think we're rarely beat in this spot, I feel we're rarely good when facing a 200bb jam when you think about the hands. I'm thinking from villians point of view, surely he's not happy jamming 9x for "value" as even bad players will likely know you can't call anything that doesn't beat him and he's unlikely to just jam 200bb with air. It kinda feels like a very confident "I deffo have this even if he has a 9" sort of jam.
 
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Four Dogs

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So you're effectively calling $20.00 to split the $4.62. After rake thats still profitable considering how rarely you're beat here and the odd chance he's spazzing with an overpair (unlikely). For me its a call, he probably has a 9 aswell. If he doesn't raise much can we not take 97 out of his range?

So you're basically willing to stack off with top pair weak kicker v. a preflop raiser who proceeds to barrel 3 streets? Calling $20 to win $25, you have to be correct about 45% just to break even. His line makes sense. Even if he were the most bluff happy donk in the world I don't see calling this as +EV and I'm a river pick-off nut. If you don't fold here, when do you?
 
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baudib1

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Would he really bet quad 3s on the flop?

In general I always fold these overbets where you are chopping at best. In this case it seems that you are beat so seldom I think I have to snap this off.
 
Four Dogs

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Man, I suck! Tried to delete the above post three times already. Got to pay more attention to the HH. Call call call.
 
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RamdeeBen

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Would he really bet quad 3s on the flop?

In general I always fold these overbets where you are chopping at best. In this case it seems that you are beat so seldom I think I have to snap this off.

It's dry, I'm going to float a ton IP. Lots of pairs/over cards maybes.


You say seldom but it makes no sense as to why this time he would jam $20.00 in to a $4.00 other than with 9,7/33. Any other hands makes no sense as you turn any other hands in to bluffs.

I also don't think he would just jam 9x on the river as what's he expecting to be called by? If he's on the line of thinking what I might have, if he suspects I have 9x I should/could be snapping of every time here..
 
youregoodmate

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It's dry, I'm going to float a ton IP. Lots of pairs/over cards maybes.


You say seldom but it makes no sense as to why this time he would jam $20.00 in to a $4.00 other than with 9,7/33. Any other hands makes no sense as you turn any other hands in to bluffs.

I also don't think he would just jam 9x on the river as what's he expecting to be called by? If he's on the line of thinking what I might have, if he suspects I have 9x I should/could be snapping of every time here..

If he thinks that deeply then why would he jam with 97 or 33? Surely he would make a sensible value bet?

I think you are thinking too deeply into this, against his possible range you kind of have to call, although I doubt anyone will scream at you for folding.
 
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RamdeeBen

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If he thinks that deeply then why would he jam with 97 or 33? Surely he would make a sensible value bet?

I think you are thinking too deeply into this, against his possible range you kind of have to call, although I doubt anyone will scream at you for folding.

Maybe I am well over thinking this but, the way I see it he can't get any "value" out of any hand, other than exactly a 9,x hand. I feel that he knows I can only call any sort of bet on the river if I hold a 9x combo hand.

So, if we take that in to account, the sizing of the bet is irrelevant. I simply can't call ANY bet with anything other than a 9x combo hand. So, if he min bets/half bets, pot bets, over bets the river, all results are the same if I have 9x in general, I call if I don't I fold, even if the bet size is 50c or $20.00.

By over betting he's just basically getting the maximum value out of any 9x hand for the times I do.


Maybe I am over thinking to much in this spot.
 
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JCgrind

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You're out thinking yourself.
1. If villain is a thinking player, I'm 100% sure he assumes you don't have a 9 cos let's be honest, you flatted an MP open. his shove here literally makes you fold 99% of your range, so it's not bad if he is thinking, but he's not.
2. As stated, Sif he's barreling the flop with quads.
3. He's playing 40% so I'm not sure he even knows what a value bet is.
4. Based on his sizing and fishtard stereotyping, I think his turn bet is suss, and it leads me to believe if he doesn't just have another 9 here, he probably has 77. Then I remember that thinking like that would be using logical analysis vs a player who isnt a thinker, which doesn't make sense.

Tbh I think this is a retarded attempt at trying to rep 9x more often than he actually has one aswell.

Did you have any history at all?

As a side note, if he did bet anything upto like 70% OTR, I'd be calling any PP and AT+ high, and I've got pretty tasty river call efficiency stats :p
 
Arjonius

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It doesn't seem very likely that a guy who limps a lot has open-raised with 33 or 97. Or 77. I don't think we can rule out an over-played premium pair.
 
Deco

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*Someone who barely raises is unlikely to open 97.
*There is one combo of 33.
*We beat 77 yet fish are often to slow to realize and ship here anyway.

Call.
 
WVHillbilly

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Call. You have the best hand the vast majority of the time. You'll see some random overpair more than you will a hand that beats you here.
 
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