$10 NLHE 6-max: Facing weird donk-bet on Flop 4-way

vinnie

vinnie

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 12, 2013
Total posts
1,208
Awards
1
US
Chips
50
This hand is on Bovada, so there's no stats. I have converted it by hand because I can't download the file until tomorrow.

The Villain in this hand is fairly aggressive and doesn't appear completely brain-dead. We have played somewhere around 40-50 hands at this point.

SB: $4.12
BB (Villain): $12.73
UTG: $16.31
MP: $3.53
CO (Hero): $11.19
BTN: $21.77

Pre-flop: [Pot: $0.15] Hero is dealt :kd4::jc4:
UTG calls $0.10, MP calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.55, 1 fold, SB calls $0.50, BB calls $0.45, 1 fold, MP calls $0.45

Flop: [Pot: $2.30] :kc4::3d4::5d4:
SB checks, BB bets $1.15, 1 fold, Hero ???

Villain has 3-bet pre-flop a few times before. So I don't believe he has AK or another premium hand here very often. I also have trouble believing he has two-pair or a set because I am fairly aggressive and, he can be fairly certain I will bet (if no one else does). If he had a very strong hand, I think he'd go for the check raise.

Basically, the only hand I believe he can reasonably have here (based on pre-flop and his donk bet) that worries me is KQ. I think this be represents a lot of flush draw hands, weak Kings, and maybe some middle pairs. He can't have a pair and the flush draw (since I have the K of diamonds).​

So, my questions are: do you think my read is reasonable, based on the play and that he's not super-passive and/or clueless? And, what would your action be here?
 
H

HoldOnTheRail

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 3, 2012
Total posts
72
Chips
0
Yeah call from a BB. I think its a draw. He dont wants to bet so little with a set when theres multi way pot with two diamonds. But who knows. Confusing hand, but I may take some action here. I have two options. Calling and hoping theres no diamond. Then seeing what he does on turn. And option two is raising a draw? Damn thats tuff. He definately shoves his flush on the flop. But its the best what you can expect to see - flush draw. OOH I rethought it. I play it slow I call. I got position and dont want to push all my chips with K and medium kicker.
 
Deco

Deco

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 7, 2009
Total posts
2,544
Chips
0
Call, could be a draw, could be KQ, could be KJ, could be 33. The turn and river action will hopefully narrow that down for us.
 
Yoshimiii

Yoshimiii

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 16, 2012
Total posts
1,058
Chips
0
Call, probably call turn if it's not too big. He bets half pot in a multi-way pot OOP, like a weak king that doesn't want it to get checked around or a flush draw but can't be sure as it is 4 way.
 
vinnie

vinnie

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 12, 2013
Total posts
1,208
Awards
1
US
Chips
50
Ok, as played, I raised here. I felt that most of the hands in his range were really weak. If this was a normal spot, I would raise anyway. Often, I raise weak donk bets with only overs, as it's often a very weak hand that can't handle any pressure. The only thing which made me hesitate here was the size of the bet (relative to the stack sizes) and the number of players. Those two things obviously made it seem stronger than I would normally give it credit for.

It seems that none of you disagree that this is often a weak hand or a draw, why don't you advocate raising and taking the option to "name his price" away from him?
 
Deco

Deco

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 7, 2009
Total posts
2,544
Chips
0
Ok, as played, I raised here. I felt that most of the hands in his range were really weak. If this was a normal spot, I would raise anyway. Often, I raise weak donk bets with only overs, as it's often a very weak hand that can't handle any pressure. The only thing which made me hesitate here was the size of the bet (relative to the stack sizes) and the number of players. Those two things obviously made it seem stronger than I would normally give it credit for.

It seems that none of you disagree that this is often a weak hand or a draw, why don't you advocate raising and taking the option to "name his price" away from him?

Because we fold his weak value hands and set up stacks for his strong value hands. We allow villain to play perfectly hence a raise is terrible.
Only hands we get value from are his draws which have between 33-40%equity.
 
vinnie

vinnie

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 12, 2013
Total posts
1,208
Awards
1
US
Chips
50
But, calling allows him to keep the pot small and also hit his draw cheaper and with deeper stacks behind.

If we're not raising here, are we ever raising donk bets for value?

Raising here is a little sick if he shoves because calling is probably really bad and we've put a lot of our stack out there. So we'll probably have to fold after putting more than a third of our stack out there. If we raise and he folds a hand like K-T, we've made him give up his two pair equity, as small as it is. And, if we raise and he calls (most likely with a draw), we don't always have to see a river. We can shove a blank turn (which happens about 80% of the time) and possibly get a fold there.

It is also possible, albeit unlikely, that he'll call with a weak hand because he believes I am trying to push him off it, or I am raising a flush draw like Ad-Qd. He could call with a hand like K-T. That's extra value for me. I'm not sure how often he calls a weak, made hand but it's almost certainly a non-zero percent.

How is that allowing him to play perfectly? Unless, we think the range of hands I believe he likely has is incorrectly ignoring the amount of times he has a set or two pair here?

Could I be value-towning myself against a weirdly played set? Yes, but I am not sure that a set occurs often enough, in the range I believe he has, to make it -EV.

I'm not saying I am right. But I still like raising better than calling. And, I'm obviously not folding this flop to the single bet. I'm willing to have my mind changed, but how does this cause him to play perfectly if almost all of his range is weak or draws?
 
Deco

Deco

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 7, 2009
Total posts
2,544
Chips
0
But, calling allows him to keep the pot small and also hit his draw cheaper and with deeper stacks behind.

Villain has between 30-40% equity your really not getting much money from the raise on even his draws alone.

If we're not raising here, are we ever raising donk bets for value?

Yes but 4way I'm goiing to need something stronger than this, how strong depends on the villain but generally AK is as weak as I'll go, we need the propsect of getting stacks in against a weaker hand which we do not have here.

If we raise and he folds a hand like K-T, we've made him give up his two pair equity, as small as it is.

Getting a villain to fold a hand with ~12% equity is not a good result, if it was we'd open shove AA preflop.

He could call with a hand like K-T. That's extra value for me. I'm not sure how often he calls a weak, made hand but it's almost certainly a non-zero percent.

If we raised to $3.45 we'd and KT called we'd make $2.30 in the unlikely event he calls.
If we flatted and bet the turn and river for 2/3 of the pot we'd make more from the turn bet alone and about 3-4x more if he calls both.

We make money from making our opponents make mistakes. In this spot villain is way more likely to call off his weaker Kx hands if we were to call/bet/bet and we are more likely to fold to better hand if we call and use our position to determine his hand.

Draws are not as numerous as you may think generally there are far more pairs even on fairly wet boards and their equity on the flop is normally very good. When raising in these spots for value we need to be getting value from more than draws otherwise we could raise K2 or any old top pair regardless of its kicker because unless it's an ace.
 
Deco

Deco

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 7, 2009
Total posts
2,544
Chips
0
Could I be value-towning myself against a weirdly played set? Yes, but I am not sure that a set occurs often enough, in the range I believe he has, to make it -EV.

If I was the BB my donking range here would be {KQs,55,33,AdQd, AdJd, AdTd}. I would not call preflop with any weaker kings or any weaker flush draws.

There would be 3 combos of flush draw which have 11 outs and 42% equity against you.
There would be 8 combos of set/KQ that crush you.

Board: Kc 3d 5d
Hand 0: 21.965%{ KdJc }
Hand 1: 78.035% { 55, 33, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, KQs }


Villain is a $5NL unknown so his range will be wider than mine but the really awful thing for us is that the range above is just my c-betting range, the range you really have to measure up against is villains calling range vs your raise. Unless villain is a hugefish he will not hold many draws here, and if he is you may fold his weaker kings and find yourself up against a range of {AK,KQ,55,33,35s,flush draws} which even against a super wide range of draws you will still be a dog against.
 
vinnie

vinnie

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 12, 2013
Total posts
1,208
Awards
1
US
Chips
50
Villain is a $10NL unknown (not $5NL). Still, reasoning remains very similar.

OK, then let's say I call and look at some potential turns and turn actions.

[Stacks on turn]
BB (Villain): $11.03
CO (Hero): $9.49 :kd4::jc4:

Turn #1: [Pot: $4.60] :kc4::3d4::5d4::8s4:
A) BB bets $3.50, Hero ???
B) BB checks, Hero ???

Turn #2: [Pot: $4.60] :kc4::3d4::5d4::9d4:
C) BB bets $3.50, Hero ???
D) BB checks, Hero ???

Turn #3: [Pot: $4.60] :kc4::3d4::5d4::ah4:
E) BB bets $3.50, Hero ???
F) BB checks, Hero ???

I am sure there are many more options for turns and turn actions, but this seems like a simple array of them. In spot A, I feel like we're stuck calling. At this point, we can't raise because we rep nothing. For spots B, D, and F... we're probably going to bet and we're just as trapped as if we'd raised the turn. For C, I'm pretty sure this is just a fold. And for E, it's close but probably still a fold.
 
Top