$10 NLHE 6-max: Facing river X/R by a really aggressive player

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ScottishMatt

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poker stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2231404
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BB: $14.41
UTG: $11.59
Hero (MP): $10.00
CO: $10.79
BTN: $10.73
SB: $17.61

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is MP with A
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A
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1 fold, Hero raises to $0.30, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.30, 1 fold, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.95) 2
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T
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6
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(3 players)
BB bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60, BTN folds

Turn: ($2.15) Q
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(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.30, BB calls $1.30

River: ($4.75) 7
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(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.90, BB raises to $10.10, Hero calls $4.90 all in


Villain plays 25/20/84 (VP/PF/AFq). Versus an aggro player like this I decided not to raise the flop and instead just let him fire away. After he X/C's the turn I put him on a medium strength type of hand. Maybe pocket 9's or a weak ten. I'm pretty sure that if he turned a draw he would bet it, same if he donked air and hit the Q. He definitely barrels a set so there is no way we can put him on that. I think the only set he can ever have OTR is a stubborn pair of 7's that didn't want to give up, again however a player like this is unlikely to check it. I reckon he donks river to avoid me checking it back. With the odds we are getting and villains strange line + aggressive tendencies do we think river is a call?
 
P

pointguard

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I like your line for the reasons you stated. River seems really close. I think it's a fold but I probably would call too in game. What are hero's stats? Can V have AQ or does he 3bet it pre? Our range looks pretty strong to villain so I don't think he's bluffing much otr, and I don't think we beat enough of his value c/r range. Lots of combos of 89 might take his line, TJss, T9ss, 56ss, etc. He's not donking into two players that often with KQ, QJ, and those hands don't c/r otr .
 
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