$10 NLHE 6-max: Facing a Turn Raise OOP

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 53/25/6

Villain Stats are 53/25/6 and my stats are 22/16/2.7. The sample size I have with villain at this time is 40 hands.
Cake Poker, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: $9.90 (99 bb)
Hero (BB): $12.51 (125.1 bb)
UTG: $10.07 (100.7 bb)
MP: $9.64 (96.4 bb)
CO: $3 (30 bb)
BTN: $16.34 (163.4 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with Q K
CO posts BB OOP, 2 folds, CO checks, BTN raises to $0.30, SB calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.20, CO calls $0.20
Flop: ($1.20) 8 2 A (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.80, CO folds, BTN calls $0.80, SB folds
Turn: ($2.80) T (2 players)
Hero bets $1.87, BTN raises to $3.74
What should hero do? advice on all streets thus far is also appreciated. Thanks for the feedback.

3-bet pre, turn i'm torn between jamming or calling and shoving on a red river card. probably raise turn, this sort of seems FOS.

How many outzzz do you now Have ??

ALL IN CLUBS said:

How many outzzz do you now Have ??

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That's not a serious question is it?

It's good enough odds to call with 13 outs, although I feel its a shove. I'm assuming our villain wants us to call in this situation, so jamming will put the action back on him.

gwaewar said:

That's not a serious question is it?

It's good enough odds to call with 13 outs,

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We have 12 outs...

WHOOPS didn't count that J as a heart for some reason. I just made up an extra suit in my head. Sorry for being a donk.

Is it bad to fold in this spot or is that just playing scared if you fold with my having 12 outs on the river? This is with the knowledge that I'm 80% sure I'm getting the stacks in on the river if one of my outs hits.

New guy here so I am interested in what the regs think here with my reasoning. I dont think shoving here is the best play. Yeah we have twelve outs to make the best hand, but I think I would just call here and if we hit river I would probably bet somewhere around 40% of the pot as the villian is probably never going away with 2 pr.

So that comes to the next question I guess, sense villian will not lay down 2 pr on a heart river are we betting more to get value, or is about 40% of pot on the river good?

I think AT, T8 is definitely in the villians range and he would probably never lay these down to a shove.

Regs care to pick this apart?

OP, what do you think the villain is holding? This would determine whether to shove on the turn or wait for the river.

Folding here isn't awful. I just don't like it. I think if you don't want to have to make a shove or reraise on the turn, folding is okay and waiting for position.

gwaewar said:

OP, what do you think the villain is holding? This would determine whether to shove on the turn or wait for the river.

Folding here isn't awful. I just don't like it. I think if you don't want to have to make a shove or reraise on the turn, folding is okay and waiting for position.

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When you say re-raise what are you making it? Are you just clicking it back or making it ~$11? If we make it ~$11 I guess the best thing to do is just go ahead and shove, no?

Looked at the wrong stack size....~$11 would basically be a shove if my hillbilly match is correct

Around $5 is alrught. Instead of an instant shove it prices us in to be able to make a big bet on the river and force our opponent into a call. I'm only saying I like the shove here because of the potential of a float by villain. I don't think he is, but there is always is that possibility. Why would he raise pre, then call on the flop? He might have hit on the flop, sure, but if he was holding AT or any A and good kicker, he would reraise to force us out from calling our draw, right?

Villain was on the button and one guy posted the BB out of position, so my thought pre flop was a faint attempt to steal the blinds with a marginal holding. I was thinking a range of any PP, Ax suited or unsuited, K10+, and QJ+. This was simply based on his VPIP of over 50.

My thought was if he had AQ+ after the flop he would have raised my flop bet so when he raised me on the turn I am 90% sure he is two pair or set he hit. I don't think he is laying either one of those hands down on the river and thats why I said i was very sure I would get his chips on the river if the heart hit.

I can't answer why he didn't raise me on my flop bet if he hit the flop.

Thanks for the feedback and good discussion on this hand. From the answers so far it seems as of my thinking was right on par where it should have been. Keep the discussion going.

Anyone out there 3-bet this pre, throw around ~80% out on the flop and shove turn? Or is that too spewy? I think we are well ahead of the BTN range and I think I am probably 3-betting this the majority of the time.

Yea I much prefer 3-bet pre then bet flop. Don't think you can shove turn though as stack aren't really set up for it and you'd have to overbet. I'd bet flop smaller than 80% as 3-bet pre probably gets us HU. Something like 62% keeps up with probably the same amount of FE and we can still get stacks in later if villian remains in hand.

titan72offsuit said:

Anyone out there 3-bet this pre, throw around ~80% out on the flop and shove turn? Or is that too spewy? I think we are well ahead of the BTN range and I think I am probably 3-betting this the majority of the time.

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I squeeze here not because we are def ahead of buttons range(which we are)but because of the dead money from the SB.And hope to iso the fish IP.If SB folds i flat here prob 90% of the time.

JOEBOB69 said:

I squeeze here not because we are def ahead of buttons range(which we are)but because of the dead money from the SB.And hope to iso the fish IP.If SB folds i flat here prob 90% of the time.

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If SB folds and we just flat what do you do if the flop comes 975r? C-bet then give up if you do not hit the turn? That flop would definitely hit the villians range of 56/25 or whatever right?

Not doubting you that this play the right play - I just wouldnt know how to play it when we whiff the flop.

this is a stone cold flat we have 12 outs, he is rarely bluffing he is giving us 4.5/1 we are definately behind on the turn so no point in jamming.

call given direct odds

titan72offsuit said:

If SB folds and we just flat what do you do if the flop comes 975r? C-bet then give up if you do not hit the turn? That flop would definitely hit the villians range of 56/25 or whatever right?

Not doubting you that this play the right play - I just wouldnt know how to play it when we whiff the flop.

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Given his agg i figure he cbets a lot,my flat range has a ton of small pairs in it.If villain has a fold button i c/r like a boss.

I agree Sqeeeeeezed pre.

Jurn8 said:

this is a stone cold flat we have 12 outs, he is rarely bluffing he is giving us 4.5/1 we are definately behind on the turn so no point in jamming.

call given direct odds

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Dont you have some fold equity by jamming here or no because we more than likely know villain won't lay his hand down????

no fold equity vs a 53/25 bro

What range of hands do you give him on the turn? I feel like he has a draw a lot himself (like QJdd).

QJdd probs doesnt float flop

his range is mostly Ax , sets, 8x, some combos of 2p , and weaker FDs or Axdd

i dont think he ever has complete air here though raising here, I didnt realise we are 125 deep though. he likes to call pre but raised so his range isnt as wide as his stats may look .

For me, I can't see a set showing up here. TT, maybe, but I don't know. I don't really believe it. AT or something like that isn't likely; I have a feeling we would have been reraised on the flop and villain wouldn't have let us draw out on him just by calling our bet. I was thinking two pair earlier; maybe T8. I still really have a gut feeling he's got nothin', though.

He standard raised 3x pre from the button, and just called on the flop. Couldn't have hit it that hard, right?