$10 NLHE 6-max: Deep ante, super aggro line check, 250bb ess

villain is aggressive and rather stationy, hence my line.

i think flop is std bc i cant rly flat a gutterball, and flop is super dry (pretty sure if hes raising a set on that board, hes not gunna just flat a CiB) but it has great implieds imo so i definitely want to continue with the hand. then when i backdoor a FD OTT, on probably one of the best cards for my range, i decide im shipping the river no matter what peels off.

only other info i really have on villain is a 40% fold to flop Cbet (7samples), and raise Cbet IP OTF 50% (only 2 samples though)
thoughts?



poker stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em $0.02 Ante - 6 players -

CO: $25.51
BTN: $57.19
SB: $22.19
BB: $10.00
UTG: $18.58
Hero (MP): $31.45

Pre Flop: ($0.27) Hero is MP with A 3
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.40, CO calls $0.40, BTN calls $0.40, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.47) 5 7 2 (3 players)
Hero bets $0.92, CO raises to $1.84, BTN folds, Hero raises to $2.76, CO calls $0.92

Turn: ($6.99) K (2 players)
Hero bets $4.40, CO calls $4.40

River: ($15.79) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $23.87 all in (CO has ~$18 behind)

he can have some sets in his range for r/c the flop, espec given you probably have a bluff heavy image.

but given we have overpairs is doesnt make a ton of sense for him to play it this way,

I dont like flop 3bet, just because i think its better to fold this hand and continue with a stronger range earlier in the hand, and especially due to sizing.

If im not folding its either a flat or a larger 3bet, we get close to zero folds setting that price which makes our turn and river bluff need a way higher success freq, and given we only really want to continue on good turn cards for us we arent going to be getting enough folds.

bet bigger on turn as played if you plan on shipping all rivers, as played its hard for him to really have a whole lot, i think we get looked up by Kx that turned us but thats really about it. if he has a set or 75s i dont expect we have any fold equity but its hard to believe those hands play flop and turn like this. 68s/34 and random overcards are all in his range, as are 88-1010 sucks if he rivered a set but whatevs.

I dont think folding flop is really all that bad, especially if you are looking to be risk averse.

JCgrind said:

villain is aggressive and rather stationy, hence my line.

only other info i really have on villain is a 40% fold to flop Cbet (7samples), and raise Cbet IP OTF 50% (only 2 samples though)
thoughts?

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Sounds like a great opponent to get to fold. I'll ignore all that and pretend you picked a better opponent to run a multi-barrell bluff on.

Think the flop raise is fine, but make it a little larger. Make the turn sizing larger. Know your plan ahead of time so you can size better and make for a more believable river shove around pot size or slightly over pot.

Yeah I def mucked up turn sizing- pot was 6.30 after rake though. Why do you guys reckon flop 3b size is bad though? My logic is that villains flop range when he raises is a bare 5 or 7 (some suited connector/gapper or ace), slight overpair, a ton of overcard air, and few straight draws and sets. Bar sets, I don't really want to fold out vil OTF because he's going to hate so many turns and rivers right? And I'm pretty sure he calls the raise even with just overcards cos its so small (he justifies it by 'being IP') etc. I planned to give up on 5 or 7 repeat too fwiw. Granted, the 8 does hit the range I have him on pretty damn hard, but I'd already planned to shove river after bombing the turn. Also, in my experience, very aggressive opponents will always raise their value hands bc they use their image to get paid off- which is why i think vil barely ever has a set here.
Felt like jamming it OTR was far better than check folding.. What do you guys think?
John, river shove is slightly over pot? $18 into $15.80. How slight do you mean?

I love running triples on semi competent lags when theyre in position, cos they often wait til river to fold meaning I win a turn bet. This could be bad logic haha but don't you think given texture, Vils (unconverged) flop tendencies and position that vil is FOS on the flop waaaay often? How much FE do you guys reckon my river shove has?

duggs said:

especially if you are looking to be risk averse.

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Mate it's me, I've had 3 2000bb-3200bb downswing days in the last fortnight.
JClolfish fears nothing haha

I will never understand deep stack play...

I'd have auto-folded flop like a nit. Haha.

bump

u r trying to represent AA one hand on the deck, its just a bad bad play i'm snap calling u your story doesnt make any sens here.

micromoi said:

u r trying to represent AA one hand on the deck, its just a bad bad play i'm snap calling u your story doesnt make any sens here.

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no trying to rep AA. and thats not the only hand he can bet for value here

JCgrind said:

Mate it's me, I've had 3 2000bb-3200bb downswing days in the last fortnight.
JClolfish fears nothing haha

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Damnnnn. I had a few 15BI (1500bb) downswings but this is nasty:stickyman

micromoi said:

u r trying to represent AA one hand on the deck, its just a bad bad play i'm snap calling u your story doesnt make any sens here.

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LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
/facepalm

and snapcalling me with what? you dont even know what villain had....

villains showed 68s btw. and yeah he snap called
turns out he was actually an aggro stationfish once data converged lol

LD1977 said:

Damnnnn. I had a few 15BI (1500bb) downswings but this is nasty:stickyman

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yeah.. deep games increase variance, and im already a super high var player lol.