$10 NLHE 6-max: deep ante 250BB ESS, villains range exactly AA?

JCgrind

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124 hands on villain, who has a 3b range of >2% and has only 3b the btn prior to this (ie never 3b to defend blinds). other regular, tag stats, all round one of the better 10nl deep players minus the fact that hes only really opening or flatting PF in a deepstack game, which is pretty lol. he is yet to 4b in any spot, let alone cold 4b

poker stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em $0.02 Ante - 6 players - View hand 2344724
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG: $30.72
MP: $27.68
CO: $25.00
Hero (BTN): $24.19
SB: $55.91
BB: $25.17

Pre Flop: ($0.27) Hero is BTN with K
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K
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3 folds, Hero raises to $0.25, SB raises to $0.97, BB raises to $2.70, Hero calls $2.45, SB calls $1.73

Flop: ($8.22) 9
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J
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6
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(3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $4.50, Hero?????????

i think flop is a fold. thoughts? i legit think his cold 4b range is AA/KK 99% and misclicks 1%

opinions of the cold 4b ranges of regs, assuming a normal 3b stat, then opinions of this guys 4b range?
 
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H

Henreiman

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It's a shitty situation, if your read is that solid then you probably have to run with it. I would assign him QQ/KK/AA/AKs preflop which means we're 100% trying to GII here, but I doubt he barrels AK into that flop. Considering SB has JJ or 99 some non-zero % of the time, this may actually be a fold.

That said, I am probably trying to GII preflop. KK v AA is just a sick cooler, you can potentially fold to the 6b, but calling pre to basically set mine is just -EV. Not to mention it gets complicated when you price SB in and he hits his set or whatever, but BB checks to you
 
LD1977

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124 hands is not enough to know anything. If you are not shoving this flop then why the hell did you cold call the 4bet? Set mining? :D

This is 6max deep so I dunno about ranges, it depends on how BB sees SB 3bet range.

P.S. His cbet is standard, yes with AK too.
 
vinylspiros

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He does play queens the same way. But it seems like aces esp with those stats.
 
xdeucesx

xdeucesx

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kind of tough to fold flop since it changes nothing. are we set mining? if so, then we can fold, but just feels crazy to be set mining KK. Not sure 124 hands is enough to 100% assume he has AA here imo.
 
Mr Sandbag

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Looks like a set of Jacks to me. I don't think he's betting so little on the flop with an overpair. Just doesn't make sense unless he's really worried someone called with JJ.

5 bet pre. If he 6 bets, you might be able to narrow his range to AA, in which case you can fold a little more comfortably.

124 hands isn't enough to assume a 4 bet is AA.
 
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swingro

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What kind of player is the SB? It looks like a donk that just doubled. He could be trying to isolate him. Anyway. His small bet on the flop looks like he s..it his pants when he saw that both of you called. I agree with Sandbag. Here is deepstack. Any mistake can cost you the work of an entire day. Better be scared than sorry. So he has 1/4 of his stack down. I would not do anything because chances are good to loose all the stack here.
I would had probably min 5-bet preflop to steal all the money if SB was a d..ick but than again. You can only beat one hand. QQ.
Your equity against JJ+
BU 42.54% 39.41% 3.13%KK

BB 57.46% 54.34% 3.13%JJ+
 
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swingro

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I looked again at the numbers and damn it looks close:) The number of JJ and KK combinations is the answer. I would try to shove here to look like a genius.
 
Mr Sandbag

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BTW I don't like flatting pre. You don't have great odds to setmine unless you are absolutely 100% positive he has AA and you can get his stack with a King high flop. If he's got KK or QQ, you're either not hitting a set or he's not stacking off to a King high or Ace high flop unless he also hits a set.
 
Aces2w1n

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GII pre. Go for the big win! If he has Aces tough break

If he aces aren't we a 3-1 underdog? with our KK?
 
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cpgd176

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I agree with what others have said. Calling preflop seems like you are taking a trapping line, so it does not make much sense that you are folding this flop.

I would've like to have seen a 5bet preflop to help really narrow down his range. I think if he 6bets then you can almost always put him on KK or AA.

But since you did just call pre... the flop seems way to dry for him not have it here. But 'it' can be several different hands, some have you crushed and others you have crushed. As you mentioned he hasn't been very aggressive and this may be because he's very passive naturally or because he hasn't gotten many playable/good starting hands. Sometimes when you are that card dead, hands such as 1010+, AQs+, AJo+ make you feel like you just won the lottery. So I wouldn't necessarily put it past villain to go crazy with JJ and QQ preflop. Post flop, again, I wouldn't put it past him to cbet AKs and it seems only naturally he cbets QQ. (although his bet size indicates he might be afraid of KK+ or JJ here)

The amount of times he raises preflop here with hands you have beat, and cbets flop, is also hugely dependent on the SB's range and how BB perceives him. Assuming you have been playing solid and SB has been playing somewhat fishy, BB is more likely to play hands such as 1010+, AQs+ more aggressively. If he has QQ or JJ and puts you on a stealing range of 40%, and doesn't give much credit to SB (maybe 10-15% of top hands), then I can definitely see him overplaying his hand as he thinks you are simply stealing blinds and SB doesn't need very strong hand to resteal.

Having said that, I think calling this flop is the best option. BB has shown some weakness in his bet, although that many be a slow played top set. Calling and seeing a blank on the turn will tell you how strong BB is as I don't see him continuing his 'bluff' after you called the flop and turn brings a blank( such a 2s). The only really bad cards are an A and sometimes a Q. Although both these cards can also freeze the action (turn A, BB has QQ - turn Q, BB has JJ now fearing you have QQ).

Overall, I like calling the flop and re-evaluating the turn. Most of the time you can continue to call down turn and river, and some of the time scare cards will come up that will freeze the action and you can get to showdown cheaply with great showdown value.
 
JCgrind

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guys, he never ever EVER has JJ or AK there. QQ is questionable tho. he doesnt squeeze, he doesnt 3bet and he never 4bs let alone cold 4b, which makes me categorise him with the other lolregs that overcall AK JJ-QQ

thats the kind of person that is overcalling 3bs with those hands. also, 0%BB 3b, 0%SB 3b, 9%BTN 3b? this makes me pretty convinced that his 3b range is the nuts

and yeah i was setmining KK. sick ikr
 
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RamdeeBen

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I think we have to at call one street here, I feel folding is just to nitty, given we have postion. If you really think his range is always KK/AA, we have some back door equity, two King outs + if say a Qc rolls of for example, he's likely gonna check it to us to pot control and we can put him in some really tough spots on the turn/river if we really think his range is exactly AA here; we could lol turn KK into a bluff and get him to fold repping some two pairs/sets etc especially if he is a tight reg, which looks the case.

Maybe that is all optimistic at 10nl lol but if he is a reg, he's likely thinking some degree of your calling range. I definitely think we have to call being the button for 1 street, it's still very possible he cold 4bets QQ here to and see what the turn brings, given we are super deep it's not going to be bad and of course we have to king outs nearly always and if it's a blank card and he double barrels then it's an easy fold.
 
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newbie in training

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I think you should of five bet imo and see what he did I pribably would have folded the flop...since your saying your almost posituve he has kk or aa

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P

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This is a tough spot but that flop and bet didn't really change anything. With your prior read, he probably has JJ+ and AK. The flop changed nothing about the hand other than JJ is now beating you. You are only beating QQ and AK, and it is a standard bet with both QQ and AK on that flop, same with AA, a little strong with set of J's but can definitely do that with the action. You can't fold this spot and shouldn't fold pre.

Reraise pre, on this board call post flop bet.
 
John A

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You don't have enough data to say that AK isn't in his 4-bet range. That aside though, if this guy is as tight as you say he is, then he's not going to barrel off his stack. You should check/call flop since you're ahead of KK+/AK and likely c/f the turn if he barrels. At that point you can tighten his range to KK+ and be certain of a fold.
 
Mr Sandbag

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Is it profitable to fold KK preflop ever? Maybe if villain has never 4bet in thousands of hands, but 124 hands simply isn't enough to determine an accurate 4bet range. It's possible he didn't get too many big hands in 124 hands, and it's even more of a possibility that when he did get a big starting hand, nobody 3bet him.
 
danprince10

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I don't think 124 hands is enough to have any sort of reliable 3 and 4 betting stats on someone especially for blind defends. I call. If he bets turn I'm probably folding though.
 
JCgrind

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we could lol turn KK into a bluff and get him to fold repping some two pairs/sets etc especially if he is a tight reg, which looks the case.

hahaha i absolutely love this. this is a guy who can def fold overpairs.

the main problem i have with it is that if i call flop, pot is going to be $17 and theres gunna be $18 behind. i feel like stack size makes it really awkward to leverage. but lol, thats something for the bucketlist



You don't have enough data to say that AK isn't in his 4-bet range.

i think i have enough data to make the assumption that AK isnt in his 4b range. and i think any other micro-ssnl player does have enough data to say its not in his cold 4b range. it is legit so rare to see anyone who is a) competent, and b) also has a cold 4b range beyond KK/AA at these stakes. even among the select few who are 4bing light well, im yet to see a villain and noted that he is 'probably cold 4bing light there bc SB is obv 3bing ATC vs BTN'.

That aside though, if this guy is as tight as you say he is, then he's not going to barrel off his stack. You should check/call flop since you're ahead of KK+/AK and likely c/f the turn if he barrels. At that point you can tighten his range to KK+ and be certain of a fold.

im BTN, and this is a 3 handed flop. so villain is Cbetting into 2 players, with one of them, myself, yet to act. the flop barrel, to me, is very much confirming my opinion that he will never show up with AK here.


tbh, as soon as i saw the cold 4b i thought i was behind. cold 4b at these stakes = AA/KK as a general rule, let alone after ive taken the time to check out his stats. its at this point that i actually wanted to fold (but i still have the 'i guess i still have to call one' attitude, that everyone seems to share re: the flop). everyone agrees that we have to call pre and so do i, but i still really thought i was behind-despite calling, at this point, being a must. what i dont understand, is the general consensus that we have to continue this 'ill call one more cos im not quite certain enough to fold yet' attitude any further?

why are we calling a flop barrel if we're intending to fold 100% of turns? (exc when a K peels off obv)

were not going to fold the flop, so that if he barrels the turn, we can fold, knowing we should have folded the flop? srsly?
afaik, the only time the turn isnt going to get barreled is when villain plans on x/shoving, which puts us in an even worse spot. not to mention, if we then check behind the turn also, if/when villain bets/open shoves the river, were going to be less sure than we were before and probably pay him off more often?

with the opinion that even if he maaaaaaaaybe has AK some of the time, hes never barreling the flop with it, i feel like calling the flop 'to confirm that hes got KK/AA' is spew. if its QQ, which i think is possible (QQ i feel like we dont have enough data to determine whether or not its in his range here) then its just unluckly for us since wed be calling flop knowing were never calling turn.

$ lost calling flop/folding turn + those we lose when villain takes an alternate line ie x/shove turn surely has to be greater than the amount we sacrifice being able to potentially win the microscopic % of the time that he does have AK/QQ/misclicks/tiltspew

tbh i cant believe that baudib is the only person that even slightly agrees

Is it profitable to fold KK preflop ever? Maybe if villain has never 4bet in thousands of hands, but 124 hands simply isn't enough to determine an accurate 4bet range. It's possible he didn't get too many big hands in 124 hands, and it's even more of a possibility that when he did get a big starting hand, nobody 3bet him.

while its true that my sample size isnt big enough to make definitive decisions, you dont think that the combination of all the things we know about him so far will point us in the right direction 99% of the time?

i mean, hes 3b 9% from the BTN, and never from anywhere else. its pretty easy to use his 0%BB 3b, 0% SB 3b and >2% overall 3b to conclude that this player does not ever 3b light.
124 hands isnt enough to have an accurate 4b range assigned, but combined with the tendencies of the majority of players at this level (not even just of similar player types) and his loltight 3b range, i think that the assumption that his cold 4b range will be >2% is incredibly accurate.

fwiw....
2% 3b% range is AA KK QQ JJ only
1.5% is AA KK QQ only


I was hoping someone would be able to rationalise to me why folding flop was good/bad and why, and unfortunately, imo it hasnt happened
 
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cardriverx

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Get it in pre say nh if he has AA 124 hands is solid sample but not definitive you can profitably gii w KK here
 
cardriverx

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Nvm last post see you are 250 bbs deep becomes sicker spot could we ever 5bet fold or is that out of the question?
 
Mr Sandbag

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fwiw....
2% 3b% range is AA KK QQ JJ only
1.5% is AA KK QQ only


I was hoping someone would be able to rationalise to me why folding flop was good/bad and why, and unfortunately, imo it hasnt happened

Even if you can narrow his 4bet range down to exactly AA/KK/QQ, it would still be profitable to get stacks in pre here, no? That is exactly 13 hands that he can have. You beat six of them (QQ), chop one (KK), and lose to six (AA). The SB's money makes a "break even" situation profitable: when villain has AA you lose only your stack, when he has QQ you win the amount of your stack plus the SB's money, and when he has KK you keep your stack and chop up the SB money.
 
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turtelliusshellius

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I disagree about 5 betting preflop with all of these people saying that's the best play. You do not want to get it all in pre if he is in top 3 range because then it becomes a bingo gamble on whether you are up against QQ or AA. In which case: AA you lose $24 - 81% of the time and win $24 - 19% of the time. QQ you give him the chance to fold to a five bet (with a nit player like this, it will happen) 50% of the time and 6 bet you 50% of the time putting you to a harder decision.

You cannot wire his range down solely to aces here because the same play gets made when he has QQ and KK (which is rare, but occurs), so the pre play of flatting the 4 bet is definitely warranted.

I think it is played perfect pre because it brings in a 3rd man for added equity with the SB and also allows you to set mine against a hand that Villain will guaranteed marry with 80+% of the flops that contain K's (since single suited flops and 3 broadway cards will slow down aces in this betting situation). The key to the set mining play is to play it strong though because when he has aces you want him to think you just hit with a hand like AK or KQ (depending on how loose he thinks your range is). Not to mention the rare occasion that you hit set over set against SB.

Now, onto the post flop play (since I agree completely on the preflop play), I would say that he has proven his range to be solely top 3 (because if he had JJ, I think he'd like better value against 2 bettors, and if he had AK I doubt a nit player would fire such a bet against 2 bettors). So, now that you know you are winning 49% of the time, chopping 2% of the time, and losing 49% of the time you just need to figure out what the optimal money play is.

Me personally, I would play it defensively for two reasons. First being SB still in the hand who could have been set mining, and second being that a defensive play is going to warrant you better showdown value (and since you have a showdown value hand, you don't really want to over risk and be shoving post flop against two players).

So in this position I call and see what SB does. If SB calls and a K comes on turn I scream bingo at my computer because I just hit the jackpot. If SB raises, I see this as a great opportunity to cut my losses. If SB folds I see this hand down to the river solely for the value of QQ and AA breaking me even in long run vs each other (since either of those hands gets played against you in a similar manner) if no K comes.

So this means by playing defensively, 5% of the time a K comes and you win a big pot against aces. 5% of the time a K comes and Q's slow down and you win a middle sized pot. 10% of the time an ace comes and warrants both hands to slow down (QQ or AA, one out of fear and other out of value). 40% of the time, no A or K come and you win a mid sized pot against Q's. 40% of the time, no A or K come and you lose a mid sized pot against A's.

So, if you run the math (which I'm not going to since I already gave you the math above without "finalized calculations") you'll see that defensive play and calling to the river in most situations will net you a positive EV here.

Now, take into consideration that I do not have enough information on his post flop play and how he plays big hands, but if you do then that makes the defensive play even better because it will give you more information against both SB and Villain and allow you to make the optimal long term decision.
 
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