Originally Posted by ramdeebam
we could lol turn KK into a bluff and get him to fold repping some two pairs/sets etc especially if he is a tight reg, which looks the case.
hahaha i absolutely love this. this is a guy who can def fold overpairs.
the main problem i have with it is that if i call flop, pot is going to be $17 and theres gunna be $18 behind. i feel like stack size makes it really awkward to leverage. but lol, thats something for the bucketlist
Originally Posted by John A
You don't have enough data to say that AK isn't in his 4-bet range.
i have enough data to make the assumption that AK isnt in his 4b range. and i think any other micro-ssnl player does have enough data to say
its not in his cold 4b range. it is legit so rare to see anyone who is a) competent, and b) also has a cold 4b range beyond KK/AA at these stakes. even among the select few who are 4bing light well, im yet to see a villain and noted that he is 'probably cold 4bing light there bc SB is obv 3bing ATC vs BTN'.
Originally Posted by John A
That aside though, if this guy is as tight as you say he is, then he's not going to barrel off his stack. You should check/call flop since you're ahead of KK+/AK and likely c/f the turn if he barrels. At that point you can tighten his range to KK+ and be certain of a fold.
im BTN, and this is a 3 handed flop. so villain is Cbetting into 2 players, with one of them, myself, yet to act. the flop barrel, to me, is very much confirming my opinion that he will never show up with AK here.
tbh, as soon as i saw the cold 4b i thought i was behind. cold 4b at these stakes = AA/KK as a general rule, let alone after ive taken the time to check out his stats. its at this point that i actually wanted to fold (but i still have the 'i guess i still have to call one' attitude, that everyone seems to share re: the flop). everyone agrees that we have to call pre and so do i, but i still really
thought i was behind-despite calling, at this point, being a must. what i dont understand, is the general consensus that we have to continue this 'ill call one more cos im not quite certain enough to fold yet' attitude any further?
why are we calling a flop barrel if we're intending to fold 100% of turns?
(exc when a K peels off obv)
were not going to fold the flop, so that if he barrels the turn, we can fold, knowing we should have folded the flop? srsly?
afaik, the only time the turn isnt going to get barreled is when villain plans on x/shoving, which puts us in an even worse spot. not to mention, if we then check behind the turn also, if/when villain bets/open shoves the river, were going to be less sure than we were before and probably pay him off more often?
with the opinion that even if he maaaaaaaaybe has AK some of the time, hes never barreling the flop with it, i feel like calling the flop 'to confirm that hes got KK/AA' is spew. if its QQ, which i think is possible (QQ i feel like we dont have enough data to determine whether or not its in his range here) then its just unluckly for us since wed be calling flop knowing were never
$ lost calling flop/folding turn + those we lose when villain takes an alternate line ie x/shove turn surely
has to be greater than the amount we sacrifice being able to potentially win the microscopic % of the time that he does have AK/QQ/misclicks/tiltspew
tbh i cant believe that baudib is the only person that even slightly agrees
Originally Posted by Mr Sandbag
Is it profitable to fold KK preflop ever? Maybe if villain has never 4bet in thousands of hands, but 124 hands simply isn't enough to determine an accurate 4bet range. It's possible he didn't get too many big hands in 124 hands, and it's even more of a possibility that when he did get a big starting hand, nobody 3bet him.
while its true that my sample size isnt big enough to make definitive decisions, you dont think that the combination of all the things we know about him so far will point us in the right direction 99% of the time?
i mean, hes 3b 9% from the BTN, and never from anywhere else. its pretty easy to use his 0%BB 3b, 0% SB 3b and >2% overall 3b to conclude that this player does not ever 3b light.
124 hands isnt enough to have an accurate 4b range assigned, but combined with the tendencies of the majority of players at this level (not even just of similar player types) and his loltight 3b range, i think that the assumption that his cold 4b range will be >2% is incredibly accurate.
2% 3b% range is AA KK QQ JJ only
1.5% is AA KK QQ only
I was hoping someone would be able to rationalise to me why folding flop was good/bad and why, and unfortunately, imo it hasnt happened