$10 NLHE 6-max: Decent equity facing min 3bet pre-flop and turn shove.

$10 NL HE 6-max: Decent equity facing min 3bet pre-flop and turn shove.

full tilt poker $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 527432
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $11.54
BTN: $10.00
SB: $9.82
BB: $13.95
UTG: $14.52

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with 9 :spade: 8 :spade:
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.40, 1 fold, SB raises to $0.70, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.50) K :spade: 3 :club: 7 :spade: (2 players)
SB bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

Turn: ($4.50) 9 :heart: (2 players)
SB bets $7.62 all in, Hero...



Discuss.

You're not getting the right odds to call.

Not getting right odds to call against what?

When he 2nd barrels, he has to have the king here. It's not a bad second barrel bluff card but also not a great one and when he shoves i would just fold.

So he 3bet preflop, if we put his range as something like 77+, AK,AQ,KQ- which is somewhere around 6% of hands then we are a big dog here. I dont even think you're 60/40. I guess if you put his range bigger than that then you could be a favorite. But what range do you think he has here? And what range are you ahead of?
Lets say he 3bets you with 12% of his range- I doubt it, but at 12% you become a favorite 57-43. Which means it will cost you 7.62 to win 12.12 so you're getting 1-1.6. which means you need to be better than a 60% favorite to win this hand for it to be profitable.
You tell me, what are we not getting the right odds against?

Not really good odds. Fold.

Wow. I was kind of expecting something along the lines of "what's the point of this thread? Obvious call" and was only really posting because to me it looks like there are a few streets with real choices that don't play themselves.

How is this not an easy call?

If he is ever bluffing here, it's a call. I've got 32% equity against a K or overpair. The call is $7.60 into $12, the odds I'm being offered are 1.5:1, I need 2:1 to make the call (if I'm behind). Does he absolutely never get carried away with AQ here or be making some stupid play here? If he has air, I've got him absolutely crushed, he doesn't have to have much air in his range to make this an easy call.

If he only ever has 99+/AK and AQs as a bluff (chose AQs because it's the strongest he can be without being ahead, and it's also a really tiny bluffing range of only 4 hands) then it's a slight call. He's bluffing a LOT more often than with 4 possible starting hands, hasn't anyone else ever seen these guys overplay a low pocket pair or do this with a suited connector?

How about if we stick to the assumption that he only bluffs AQ (assuming he does bluff other stuff, but weaker and with the same frequency that he's dealt AQ), we'll include AQo and KQ.

My equity becomes:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.817% 43.82% 00.00% 1311 0.00 { 9s8s }
Hand 1: 56.183% 56.18% 00.00% 1681 0.00 { 99+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo }

This, I think is the most fair range we can give him (again, I'm not saying he only has AQ, I'm saying he shows up with a bluff as often as he's dealt AQ).


How is this a fold?

3bet preflop you hit 2nd pair on the turn and he shoves. I dont think he has air here very much. I guess some of the time air is in this range. But even with AQ in there and some other hands you beat your a lil bit of a dog here (and your equity in the hand is not so good even with 56% to win given you need 60%+ for this to be right). I think you are behind more often than you are ahead and I do not believe he will bluff this with AQ every time it is dealt to him unless hes a donktard.

AA=6 combinations
KK=3 combinations
QQ=6 combinations
JJ=6 combinations
TT=6 combinations
99=1 combination
AK=12 combinations.
KQ=12 combinations
This range is as strong as I can reasonably make it, we could possibly include 77+ but that weakens his range because we have to include 88.

All I'm suggesting is that he bluffs with more than 4 possible combinations (the AQs example), it can be any 4 combinations.
I'm suggesting that he has the goods a little over 12 times more often than he is bluffing.

He doesn't need to be bluffing very often.

thepokerkid123 said:

Not getting right odds to call against what?

Click to expand...

All right, I'm writing this post a little sedated.

You're not getting the odds to call against most of his common holdings in this scenario. He'd really have to be on a complete bluff for you to be ahead of him. By the turn, you win less than 1/3 times against a king an overpair - these are his probable holdings unless you have a read on him as a maniac. By calling 7.62 into a 4.50 pot you're not getting odds to call with that less than 1/3 chance.

Maybe a better question is what happened to folding preflop, or on the flop, and now the turn has become your best opportunity to fold. I'm guessing you called and drew out on him, right?
I just dont understand why you called a 3bet, yeah you had position but he doesn't really have enough in his stack to warrant it- implied odds are only there questionably. Then when you hit you have 2nd pair but its the turn and you only have 1 card left with draw- that draw hits like 17%. So I see this as getting into a marginal situation that you are relying on luck or him to be bluffing so that you can win.
Would you call his all in on the river? What if another K came? What if its an A? if he does not shove the turn what is your plan?

I'm totally fine with the pre-flop call, villain's raise didn't even double his and he was getting pretty good odds to call. Another .30 into 1.2 is not bad. You wouldn't cap in position with 98s to a 3bet thats not even double the amount you bet? It's a pretty ridiculous re-raise. Lots of implied value with these hands.

Calling the flop is a little trickier. I usually wouldn't call with these odds unless I'm tilting. He bets the pot. You're not really getting good odds to call, and no doubt there's gonna be an even higher turn bet if you miss while a flush card might slow the action. Heads up you're not really getting good odds to call this...

The river raise would cause me to fold pretty quick.

EDIT: Actually in some cases I think I would call the flop because I float c-bets frequently (and good equity on this one) and I know this is an ideal board to c-bet and a lot of opponents do not 2nd barrel bluff. I would have to fold the river though. You're not really getting good odds to call, but I would be factoring in the large amount of opponents who c-bet and then can't fire the turn.

Ubercroz said:

I'm guessing you called and drew out on him, right?

Click to expand...

I did call.

Ubercroz said:

I just dont understand why you called a 3bet, yeah you had position but he doesn't really have enough in his stack to warrant it- implied odds are only there questionably.

Click to expand...

It's a minimum 3bet, if he made it 3x/4x my raise then it's an insta fold. 3bb to see a flop with 100bb stacks, with position, the implied odds are certainly there.
Besides, I'm not playing fit or fold. He's going to give me a lot of +EV opportunities post-flop, he'll check to me on the flop sometimes (a real risk of a c/r but often a well sized bet is still +EV), he'll cbet on a flop that I can float (like this one) and give up on the turn a lot, I'll often pick up scare card outs.

Ubercroz said:

Then when you hit you have 2nd pair but its the turn and you only have 1 card left with draw- that draw hits like 17%. So I see this as getting into a marginal situation that you are relying on luck or him to be bluffing so that you can win.

Click to expand...

I'm never relying on luck, if I did that would be -EV and I'd lose in the long term.
I have 31.8% equity if I'm against AA, it's a good draw (but obviously not good enough to call if he only ever has AA).
Making the call does rely on him bluffing sometimes, if he never bluffs then it's -EV, if he bluffs 7-8% of the time, it's +EV, if he bluffs more it's hugely +EV.

Ubercroz said:

Would you call his all in on the river? What if another K came? What if its an A? if he does not shove the turn what is your plan?

Click to expand...

I fold on the river, I'm way behind his range with just a pair but on the turn I have a lot of equity in this hand, enough to justify the chips I have to put in.




I know a lot of people fold this pre-flop, because you shouldn't call 3bets with weak hands but 3bets aren't supposed to be minraises. A minraise is both weaker and cheaper for me to continue against, it is more likely that I can steal the pot post flop unimproved and more likely that I can get away from my hand cheaply if there's no +EV option post-flop.

On the flop, again I think a lot of people fold but I think that's a horrible mistake if we can expect villain to ever cbet air (not often, just very occasionally), his range on the flop certainly contains air, his range on the turn contains less but it doesn't have to have much.

In the Strategy Articles, poker odds post, the point is made that instead of only evaluating whether or not we're behind here, we need to evaluate whether we're getting the right price to continue even if you are behind. We're clearly behind Villain's range of hands here - the only question is whether we're getting the right price to call him in spite of the fact that we're behind.

Very nice thread everyone, great discussion, great illustration of this point! Just re-stating what I think most everyone's saying here - that if the bluffing frequency is sufficiently high, calling is +Ev, and if it's not, that this is a fold.

I suck at math and am too lazy to work it out - tying together pot odds and our equity against an overpair (most common scenario, I'll ignore a flopped set for the time being), exactly how often does he have to be bluffing?

thepokerkid123 said:

My equity becomes:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.817% 43.82% 00.00% 1311 0.00 { 9s8s }
Hand 1: 56.183% 56.18% 00.00% 1681 0.00 { 99+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo }

Click to expand...

Board: Ks 7s 9h 3c

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.466% 31.47% 00.00% 803 0.00 { 9s8s }
Hand 1: 68.534% 68.53% 00.00% 1749 0.00
{ AA, KcKd, KcKh, KdKh, QQ-TT, 9c9d, 77, AcKc, AdKd, AhKh, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, KcQc, KdQd, KhQh, AcKd, AcKh, AdKc, AdKh, AhKc, AhKd, AsKc, AsKd, AsKh, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, KdQc, KdQh, KdQs, KhQc, KhQd, KhQs }

thepokerkid123 said:

Full Tilt Poker $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 527432
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $11.54
BTN: $10.00
SB: $9.82
BB: $13.95
UTG: $14.52

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with 9 ♠ 8 ♠
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.40, 1 fold, SB raises to $0.70, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.50) K ♠ 3 ♣ 7 ♠ (2 players)
SB bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

Turn: ($4.50) 9 ♥ (2 players)
SB bets $7.62 all in, Hero...


Discuss.

Click to expand...

12.12 : 7.62 odds.... you would need close to 40% equity to make this call, I don't think your getting it... but if you really think this play is a bluff 8-10% then you can make the call.

The 3bet preflop (even if it is the minimum) does show strength to me, and tightens his range up enough for me to think he isn't lying here when he overbets on the turn.

Do you have any history with this player?

For the record, I'm folding.

slycbnew said:

I suck at math and am too lazy to work it out - tying together pot odds and our equity against an overpair (most common scenario, I'll ignore a flopped set for the time being), exactly how often does he have to be bluffing?

Click to expand...

It's about 8% and you can work it out by figuring out the combinations of hands that beat us and how many weak hands you need him to have to weaken his range to the point where we only need 1.5:1 to call.

Not sure if there's a quicker way, but 8% and 31.8% (31.8% being the equity against his value range) add together to make 40% which is what we need to call 1.5:1, maybe it's that easy?
No idea though, my head hurts way too much from all of this thinking.

Likminutz said:

Board: Ks 7s 9h 3c

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.466% 31.47% 00.00% 803 0.00 { 9s8s }
Hand 1: 68.534% 68.53% 00.00% 1749 0.00
{ AA, KcKd, KcKh, KdKh, QQ-TT, 9c9d, 77, AcKc, AdKd, AhKh, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, KcQc, KdQd, KhQh, AcKd, AcKh, AdKc, AdKh, AhKc, AhKd, AsKc, AsKd, AsKh, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, KdQc, KdQh, KdQs, KhQc, KhQd, KhQs }


12.12 : 7.62 odds.... you would need close to 40% equity to make this call, I don't think your getting it... but if you really think this play is a bluff 8-10% then you can make the call.

Do you have any history with this player?

Click to expand...

You give him a stronger range than I do and no pure bluffs, only overs with flush draw.

History with him is a valid point but as I didn't mention it before all of these responses I think it's best we assume him to be an unknown. Against almost any player a bluffing range of 10% is tiny.

I mean... put yourself in his shoes, CO raises to 4bb, his range is fairly wide and includes all pocket pairs, SCers, all suited aces, at least A9o+. You 3bet small and he calls, you're cursing yourself for having misclicked and only made a minraise, CO's range is still very wide (even if I'm an unknown to him, your average $10nl 6max player has a fairly wide range here). Dry flop, good one to cbet, CO calls, it was a big bet so he probably has something, mid pockets or better, AK, KQ, lots of Ax with flush draws and he still has a lot of SCers because it was only a min 3bet pre-flop. If neither the flush nor an ace hit on the turn then CO's range consists mostly of hands that can't call a shove, it's only AA, KK, AK and KQ that can come along (keeping in mind how wide CO's range still is). Particularly if you have outs for when he does call, it's not a bad spot to bluff. You need him to fold very roughly 60% of the time if you have no outs, and he will at least have a hand that he should fold a lot more often than that. Come to think of it, it's actually a good line for a flush draw when OOP since it's got very little implied odds it might as well find some fold equity.

I don't believe this guy would have that much of a thought process, more than likely he's just watched high stakes poker and wants to prove how pro he is by pulling off a big bluff, but whatever his justification, we can justify a bluff and I'm sure your average $10nl player is better at finding excuses to make all in bluffs than I am.

Of course I give him a strong range - mostly hands that are ahead and some semi-bluffs. That's why I said 8-10% of bluffs would also have to be in his range; it wouldn't make sense to include bluffs in his range (Like AQo) AND THEN add 10% bluffing frequency. I also think you may have left out the board when you calculated your equity in PokerStove... maybe I'm wrong.

I think you're overstating that this would be "HUGELY" profitable if it's over 10%. If that's his bluffing frequency then it is still somewhere close to 0-EV... Did you really think all of this through in the middle of the hand before you made the play?

In my opinion this is such a marginally profitable spot, that you would need to convince me through some sort of Rule or Theorem that you find through a large enough database that shows this is a line for a bluff enough times; Min 3bet followed by pot c-bet and shove is a fold x% of the time - Pokerkid Theorem

I'd rather push over his flop c-bet than call his overbet AI here, at least we have fold equity there.

I didn't think it all through throughout the hand. I thought "I'm crushing any bluffs, and I'm not far behind the odds I need against his good hands" afterwards I got more detailed.

And no, I didn't forget to use the board.

Board: Ks 7s 9h 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.817% 43.82% 00.00% 1311 0.00 { 9s8s }
Hand 1: 56.183% 56.18% 00.00% 1681 0.00 { 99+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo }

This is the strongest range I expect to see here.
The more bluffs we include, our equity rises dramatically.