$10 NLHE 6-max: common situation: c-bet or not and how much

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nidal55

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PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 56.5 BB (VPIP: 21.95, PFR: 9.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 42)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 22.69, PFR: 18.28, 3Bet Preflop: 7.07, Hands: 489)
CO: 206 BB (VPIP: 24.14, PFR: 20.69, 3Bet Preflop: 17.11, Hands: 216)
BTN: 223.8 BB (VPIP: 22.52, PFR: 17.66, 3Bet Preflop: 6.48, Hands: 571)
SB: 96 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 100.00, 3Bet Preflop: 100.00, Hands: 1)
Hero (BB): 118.1 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K:spade: A:spade:

UTG raises to 3 BB, MP calls 3 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 17 BB, UTG calls 14 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (40 BB, 2 players) 5:heart: Q:spade: 8:diamond:
Hero ?

The reason this spot is hard cause villain is super short (spr) but not short enough to just shove as a c-bet(virtual all-in). the 3bet preflop was that big cause it was a squeeze and whatever i do looks exploitable. cbet small hell come over the top,check and hell shove + hell shove anyway which makes me sick cause i have no info.
 
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ScottishMatt

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He looks to be quite bad given the size of his stack and the PF action. I'd like to have a bit more information about his postflop play before we make a decision here. Without reads I probably just shove as a very general play. The shove line could change based on postflop factors, but overall I really don't think it can be that -EV here against anyone but a total fish.

Just stick it in, IMO.
 
JCgrind

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i ship it. hes generally going to have a range like AJ+, 88-JJ here. every chance hes trying to make sure the money goes in w his KK/AA too hence flatting pre. seen so many shorties at 10nl adopting that strat.

excluding AA/KK, youre 40% vs the range i gave him, and that was assuming at least a remote level of competence (since hes 20/9, i feel like hes playing a big ace or mid high pair passively) but i could very easily be wrong. i think shoving is best
 
Figaroo2

Figaroo2

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I hate these spots too if he is calling that big a raise leaving himself only 40bb then I agree its likely the money will go in. A little more info as to whether he is a genuine short stacker or a 100bb man who has taken a beat would be useful. If he was tilting from a beat I might shove.
If it does get all in equity calc says you are no better than 30% against 88 99 10s JJ QQ KQ AQ AK, obviously less including KK AA. Tilting he might have a much wider range, a genuine short stacker is imo more likely to have the above range.
The consensus above seems like shove for fold equity but IMO against the shorter stack but I am losing too much with AK in these spots.... I would check to see what he does and probably fold to a shove.
It would be interested to see what others think.
 
John A

John A

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Bet/call. Easy game.
 
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