$10 NLHE 6-max: Check-Raise flop or turn? 3 bet pot Nut flush draw+overcards

I really didn't want to fold this hand, Stats: 37/30 Hand sample: 56

Fold to 3 bet 40 (5)


pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

Button ($6.11)
Hero (SB) ($12.97)
BB ($7.08)
UTG ($10.46)
MP ($11.89)
CO ($4.85)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A , K
1 fold, MP bets $0.30, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.05, 1 fold, MP calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.20) 9 , 10 , 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.25, MP calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.70) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $3, Hero raises to $10.67 (All-In)

Not sure it's a good shove, he ain't folding a 9 maybe not even a big T here, and most likely he ain't folding JJ+ here.

I would have bet turn myself and fold to a raise. Shove any A, K or heart on riv.

His stats dont mean anything at this point so i would treat him as an normal unknown.

I just call preflop (which might upset some ppl). But if you get 4b do you really want to get it all in here? At best you are 50%. Also if he calls your 3b you are oop and will have a tough time in a readless spot. If you do hit your A or K do you expect to get paid off as well? Also he opened in mp so his range will typically be a bit tighter we should assume.

I call pre and keep in many dominated hands like AJ, KQ, and lots of pairs etc. And i look to xr a lot of flops and float etc.

In this exact spot i would call pre and xr the flop.

forsakenone said:

Not sure it's a good shove, he ain't folding a 9 maybe not even a big T here, and most likely he ain't folding JJ+ here.

I would have bet turn myself and fold to a raise. Shove any A, K or heart on riv.

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Putting half our stack in the pot and folding out when he raises, we lose so much equity this way it just seems horrible.

3-bet larger being OOP plus opponent doesn't look like he likes to fold. If you had raised about 4.5x pre and near potted the flop you could shove the turn.

As played betting small on the flop and looking to CRAI is a decent line. The problem is the turn and stack sizes. Turn card is pretty bad, but you have a ton of equity versus his range, so I'd continue to set the price by bet/calling. CRAI on the turn, maybe you get him to call off with some worse draws some of the time, but you have almost zero fold equity otherwise. So if you bet and he just calls and you whiff you can c/f most rivers.

I like it, we maximise what we make from the vast amount of draws villain has. Dunno if I can be fully sure villain folds to a well sized turn bet and may even shove on us.

Deco said:

I like it, we maximise what we make from the vast amount of draws villain has. Dunno if I can be fully sure villain folds to a well sized turn bet and may even shove on us.

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I guess even though it's a 3-bet pot and hero has AhKh, there may still be some draws in his range because of said villain. More than most opponents perhaps.

I think at these stakes you can get away with setting the turn pricing against an opponent that has low fold equity. It's not guaranteed he's going to bluff shove whiffed rivers, and we have showdown value versus most other draws, so I still like bet/calling the turn slightly better personally. Opponent still may shove worse draws to a bet as well and we minimize loss when we miss or opponent has a big hand.

Our blockers and this being a 3bet pot do reduce draws under normal circumstances but this board gives villains range so many straight draws, gutshots and back door flush draws yet not that many 9x as most his 9x hands should be suited which hugely knocks down his 9x combos and just gives two T9 combos.

Anyway, villain tanked until 6 seconds were left and called with JJ, which was a good call, so credit to him. I also bricked the river.

Deco said:

Our blockers and this being a 3bet pot do reduce draws under normal circumstances but this board gives villains range so many straight draws, gutshots and back door flush draws yet not that many 9x as most his 9x hands should be suited which hugely knocks down his 9x combos and just gives two T9 combos.

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I'm not sure what the board has to do with changing his pre-flop range, but I'll roll with it. I still think my line is lightly higher EV, although I don't think CRAI is bad.

Yoshimiii said:

Anyway, villain tanked until 6 seconds were left and called with JJ, which was a good call, so credit to him. I also bricked the river.

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You need to watch my video on sucking out with big draws. It's burning money to have not watched it...

John A said:

I'm not sure what the board has to do with changing his pre-flop range, but I'll roll with it.

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Im talking about his turn range. His preflop range floats the crap out of this flop.

Deco said:

Im talking about his turn range. His preflop range floats the crap out of this flop.

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Guess I'll try and explain better, sometimes I assume too many things. In re-raised pots, your opponents turn range is more correlated to his pre-flop range then un-raised or single raised pots. Every raise or re-raise pre-flop correlates it stronger. Unless you're playing 5/10 and people are calling 4-bets with 95s of course, or you're playing micro stakes against a maniac gambler. The fact the board is coordinated and he called the flop doesn't suddenly weight his range heavier to draws. That's why I said the board doesn't really change his range much.

Draws: {KQ, KJs, QJs, AsQs,AsJs} = 21 combos
Trips/Quads/Fullhouse: {T9s-A9s, 99, TT} = 14 combos
2Pair: {JT-ATs, JJ} = 18 combos

40% of that range is draws. If that aint draw heavy I don't know what is.
I've tried my best to make this as conservative as possible, no AQ/AJ floats, only one heart draw and no negations to account for flop raises which would come down harder on 9x than they would on straight draws.
Also worth noting a lot of villains will checkback the turn with a good portion of the Tx range I included.

Deco said:

Draws: {KQ, KJs, QJs, AsQs,AsJs} = 21 combos
Trips/Quads/Fullhouse: {T9s-A9s, 99, TT} = 14 combos
2Pair: {JT-ATs, JJ} = 18 combos

40% of that range is draws. If that aint draw heavy I don't know what is.
I've tried my best to make this as conservative as possible, no AQ/AJ floats, only one heart draw and no negations to account for flop raises which would come down harder on 9x than they would on straight draws.
Also worth noting a lot of villains will checkback the turn with a good portion of the Tx range I included.

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Ya, you aren't understanding what I'm saying, but you made my point somewhat any ways. In a single raised pot, we'd weight his range towards draws much heavier, and this would be the majority of his range. In a re-raised pot where hero has AhKh, less of his range is weighted towards draws. It doesn't mean there aren't draws, but it's probably roughly 70/30 value range to draw, where it would be much higher in single raised scenarios on a T9 flop.

John A said:

Ya, you aren't understanding what I'm saying, but you made my point somewhat any ways. In a single raised pot, we'd weight his range towards draws much heavier, and this would be the majority of his range. In a re-raised pot where hero has AhKh, less of his range is weighted towards draws.

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Lol ye john thats pretty obvious.
As my first post says under normal circumstances a 3bet pot with our blockers would make draws very scarce but this board hits even the tightest of flatting ranges very hard.

Deco said:

Lol ye john thats pretty obvious.
As my first post says under normal circumstances a 3bet pot with our blockers would make draws very scarce but this board hits even the tightest of flatting ranges very hard.

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I would assume so, but that's not what your first post says. In single raised pot the ratio of draw combos to made hands would be extremely skewed to mostly draws. But here it's mostly skewed to made hands, around 70/30ish or so like I said.

Any ways, I think we got it sorted out now.

40% or even 30% is draw heavy if you use equilab or CardRunners EV alot you realize people often over-estimate the draws in someones range. Most the time they make up a very small minority of the overall hands.

John A said:

I would assume so, but that's not what your first post says.

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Deco said:

I like it, we maximise what we make from the vast amount of draws villain has. Dunno if I can be fully sure villain folds to a well sized turn bet and may even shove on us.

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I think you've misread something down the line.