$10 NLHE 6-max: Check flop, check turn, overbet shove river

6

6bet me

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10NL 6-max zoom on pokerstars. Villain is unknown.

BTN: $19.57
SB: $8.44
BB: $19.03
UTG: $10.59
MP: $17.50
Hero (CO): $16.38

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with T:diamond: T:heart:
UTG raises to $0.30, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1, 3 folds, UTG raises to $2.65, Hero calls $1.65

Flop: ($5.45) 8:diamond: 2:club: Q:diamond: (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($5.45) 3:diamond: (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($5.45) T:club: (2 players)
UTG bets $7.94 all in, Hero calls $7.94

What do you think about the way I played this hand? I only called preflop to try to set mine (thinking that the villain probably had AA/KK and would never fold postflop) and was surprised to see him check twice then overbet shove the river.
 
TimovieMan

TimovieMan

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Holy hand histories, Batman! :)


It that's the range you assign him preflop to make the setmining call, then that's not a profitable proposition, and you should fold.
Add QQ and AK to the range and it's ok. Add a couple of 4-bet bluffs with Ax and you're gold.

Postflop is perfect, imo. It feels like he has QQ/AA and is trapping, but there's going to be bluffs in his range too, or a scared JJ. If it's QQ, so be it.
LOL if it's J9.
 
6

6bet me

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I just did the maths and you're right: to purely set-mine on the flop isn't profitable here. I'm calling $1.65 more to win $13.24 (my $2.65 + his $2.65 + his other $7.94), which means I would need to win 12.46% of the time to justify a call, but the probability of flopping a set or better is only 11.8%. So I guess I just have to put some QQ/AK combos in his range and try to play postflop and use position to my advantage, rather than pure set-mining.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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That math assumes:

-you never lose with a set
-you always take his whole stack when you hit a set
-you lose no money when you don't make a set, bluff catching with 1 pair.

Obviously none of these are true. Set mining in 4-bet pots is a great way to lose tons of money. This is a standard fold to the 4-bet.
 
the lab man

the lab man

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Hey c9 good to see you back, what I am missing here?
 
S

Sneaky Feet

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Call pre with 1010 in CO against UTG. As played fold pre to the 4bet.
 
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