$10 NLHE 6-max: Call or Fold when obvious draw hits

#1 10th July 2016, 8:53 PM

What are the best stats to use when obvious draw hits and they fire out??
I only had 5 hands on villain 20/0 AG33% 5 Hands

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager (http://www.holdemmanager.com/) - The Ultimate Poker Software (http://www.holdemmanager.com/) Suite.

SB: $15.41 (154.1 bb)
BB: $13.23 (132.3 bb)
UTG: $10 (100 bb)
Hero (MP): $10.30 (103 bb)
CO: $10.91 (109.1 bb)
BTN: $11.76 (117.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J

A

UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 2 folds, SB calls $0.25, BB folds

Flop: ($0.70) A

7

K

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.44, SB calls $0.44

Turn: ($1.58) 5

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1, SB calls $1

River: ($3.58) 8

(2 players)
SB bets $2.25, [color="grey"]Hero ??

#2 11th July 2016, 12:08 AM

When you only have 5 hands of stats, you might as well be making the decision blind if you haven't seen anything out of the ordinary in the previous hands.

Vs unknowns, you should be assuming they're not bluffing without reads.

Folding is probably best here, especially since his sizing looks like a value-bet.