$10 NLHE 6-max: Brutal sick disgusting hand with very deep stacks

6

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10NL 6-max zoom on pokerstars. Both villains are unknown.

BTN: $9.23
SB: $10.02
Hero (BB): $51.60
UTG: $4.60
MP: $10.00
CO: $39.27

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with A:club: A:diamond:
UTG raises to $4.60 all in, 1 fold, CO calls $4.60, 2 folds, Hero raises to $10, CO calls $5.40

Flop: ($24.65) J:diamond: K:spade: T:spade: (3 players - 1 is all in)
Hero bets $41.60 all in, CO calls $29.27 all in

I was loving life when I was dealt Aces and got a 46bb open shove from some fish and a call from another deep-stacked player. I wanted to raise it up a bit but not too much as I didn't want to deter the other player from calling. The flop from hell came and I didn't really know what to do... I thought if I open-shove here, I can probably get a call from QQ and AK and there are just as many combos of QQ as there are JJ/KK combined. I wasn't loving the shove but I felt that check/folding this flop would be too nitty. Thoughts?

Here is a boom link for those who want to watch the action play out:
BOOM LINK
 
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6

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The worst part wasn't losing $40 this hand (my record for most bb lost in a single hand... woooh). The worst part was that I lost a further 6 buyins shortly after this through a combination of tilt + coolers (mostly unavoidable things like flush over flush, but some avoidable things like loose calldowns and spewy bluffs). It's never just 1 bad beat. It's always a series of bad beats. Ugh poker can be so cruel sometimes.

I was having such a good session until this hand. Everything after this just got worse and worse and worse. I should've stopped playing after losing this big pot.
 
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Bad beat aside: what do you think of the way I played this hand? Should I have raised more preflop? Was it correct for me to shove the flop?
 
TimovieMan

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He called 46BB already preflop. I'd be inclined to shove pre here. Or definitely a lot larger than you did. But if we're going much larger, we can just shove as we'd be c-betting all-in most of the time anyway, and this is a case where we don't mind him folding something like AK/KK/QQ because there's enough dead money already.

That's one of the worst flops you could have, though.
 
John A

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raise to $12 pre so you can shove most flops.

I mean as is, how often does your opponent have QQ here? I think over 100bbs pre, I think AK is either shoving or folding pre... so AA/KK and maybe QQ sometimes at these stakes. If you remove QQ you should be c/fing... if you put it over 50%, then you should shove. I think I just check the flop though and see what he does. It won't hurt you at this point.

Hard to get away from, but if you had some stats, you might be able to get away from this hand.
 
Trabendo_daze

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Raise bigger pre. Unfortunately this flop absolutely smacks his calling range here and we have really poor equity against it. I wouldn't be too upset check/folding. I doubt you'll get bluffed by a worse hand/one that doens't have a shitton of equity against you.
 
Figaroo2

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You are losing a ton of value by shoving preflop, which presumably folds out his AK QQ.
Your raise was OK any 'normal' flop and your shove will pick up that extra 100bb or more from your raise.
Once the K arrives meh ....Avoid sharp instruments.
 
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You are losing a ton of value by shoving preflop, which presumably folds out his AK QQ.
Your raise was OK any 'normal' flop and your shove will pick up that extra 100bb or more from your raise.
Once the K arrives meh ....Avoid sharp instruments.

How do I know that it's the K I'm trying to avoid? So you'd advocate shoving every flop that's not Kxx? What if it's a Qxx flop? Then I have to worry about QQ. Or what if it's a Jxx flop? Then I have to worry about JJ. The probability that a flop will contain neither a J, Q or K is actually less than 50%, so I felt that I couldn't let myself fall victim to "monsters under the bed" syndrome. I just had to get it in and hope that the villain would call with AK or QQ. There are far more combos of AK than there are of KK, although I'm not 100% sure that the villain calls it off with AK. He might even fold AK preflop.
 
Trabendo_daze

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It's just that KJT hits every single part of the calling range hard except AK. Even against QQ you really aren't doing very well. I agree with you, if there is only a Q or a K then we don't need to fear such a small part of his range. The problem as that his whole range clobbers this flop. Plug AA vs. TT+, AK on this flop. I don't know what the percentages are, but I'd imagine you don't have more than 30% equity, probably less.
 
Trabendo_daze

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And also, I don't think people fold AK preflop frequently (as they shouldn't) so I'd never assume that AK is not in a r/c or 3b/call range.
 
Figaroo2

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Personally I'm not calling the initial shove with AK unless I've reason to think that he's shoving light. If I had just flatted the shove with AK and then you raised giving me 4-1 I'd consider calling AK. Normally I wouldn't call the initial shove with JJ either. Probably only QQ KK AA. And then not happily with QQ. Problem is now I've seen the result of the hand but KK is the hand I'd fear the most in your shoes. John is right if you knew he was tight then you've got to consider the worst and folding but I doubt if anyone at this level is good enough to fold this. Myself included.
It is interesting maybe if faced with the same again I might just shove the aces pre flop and let the cards fall. It would have been interesting to see if he would have folded his KK.
 
6

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We're still 53.3% favourites vs TT+/AK.

What is our equity against only TT+? I'm not sure that AK is in the villain's range when I think about it. When the short-stack open shoves 46bb, he's representing a range of {22-JJ, AK}, so AK is at best flipping against this range. With other players to act behind, there'd be reason for the villain to fold AK preflop.

If I could go back in time, I'd probably raise to something like $13 preflop instead of $10, so as to price the villain out of set mining. However, I would still be GII on 100% of flops, including this one.
 
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Open-jamming yourself is probably a mistake. You are pretty much folding out every hand you beat, and isolating yourself against sets and AQ. If he is 400bb deep, he is going to be pretty competent. He's not calling off AK or QQ here. QJs should not be in his range, and even if it were, he wouldn't call. When he flat calls the open-jam, he should be pretty strong, given that UTG open-shoved almost 50bb. He's not closing the action either, and he has 3 people to act behind. So his range is something like (1010+, AQs+) at the minimum. Though I'd think most people would call (JJ+, AK), and I would remove JJ from my calling range.

Check and see what he does. I'm not too likely to stack off on this flop, as our range is pretty face-up when we check. His betting range should be really strong. AK probably checks back flop, and so does QQ (which both have SDV). He's shouldn't be trying to bluff us, especially when he doesn't know if we are capable of folding AA/AK/QQ here and because the fish in the pot is already all-in. There's nothing in the side pot either.
 
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Trabendo_daze

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Okay yeah I screwed up my intuition was wrong. However I think it's really foolish to think that AK is not in villains range here. AK is very close to the nuts preflop, there is no reason why people shouldn't be playing it like this. Also the open jam isn't just pairs and AK it could literally be ATC.
 
Trabendo_daze

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I agree with Minh though, check the flop because I doubt we are getting bluffed off the best hand.
 
N

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Yeah could check the flop, your play on the flop certainly isn't bad though there's already 250bbs in the pot, doubt they'll fold QQ, may be able to get away from AK

Pf is the interesting street for me I can think of arguments for shoving, raising to ~13 and to the size that you did.

i'm leaning towards $13
 
B

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pretty classic for cash games i think, first preflop good action, but raise more 12$-13$ will be better, now flop absolutely horrible for you and you shove and thats very risky, which call only AK/AJ/JJ and KK like it was, flop dangerous so better check, and see whats going on where are you, cause 'bullets' looks not so strong like we want.
 
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Open-jamming yourself is probably a mistake. You are pretty much folding out every hand you beat, and isolating yourself against sets and AQ. If he is 400bb deep, he is going to be pretty competent. He's not calling off AK or QQ here. QJs should not be in his range, and even if it were, he wouldn't call. When he flat calls the open-jam, he should be pretty strong, given that UTG open-shoved almost 50bb. He's not closing the action either, and he has 3 people to act behind. So his range is something like (1010+, AQs+) at the minimum. Though I'd think most people would call (JJ+, AK), and I would remove JJ from my calling range.

Check and see what he does. I'm not too likely to stack off on this flop, as our range is pretty face-up when we check. His betting range should be really strong. AK probably checks back flop, and so does QQ (which both have SDV). He's shouldn't be trying to bluff us, especially when he doesn't know if we are capable of folding AA/AK/QQ here and because the fish in the pot is already all-in. There's nothing in the side pot either.

I think it's unlikely that QQ folds the flop. The breakeven point is only 35% equity and I'd guess that QQ has almost that much equity against a weaker set like JJ, due to the fact that it has both an OESD and a set draw. Even if QQ does fold, that's good for me, as it brings up my fold equity, so I'm happy either way.

I also think it's unlikely that AK folds the flop. Like wtf is the point of the villain even playing AK if he's going to flop TPTK in a 1 SPR pot and then fold? He would have folded preflop if he thought he was dominated. So he either doesn't have AK in his range at all, or he's stacking off with AK anytime he flops TPTK. This was one of my motivations for only raising to $10: I wanted to keep dominated hands like AK in his range, even though I ran the risk of having the villain set-mine against me.

So let's say that {JJ+, AK} is probably a realistic range for the villain... so what is my equity against this range? Against 6 combos of sets I'm crushed (about 20% equity). Against 6 combos of QQ I am well ahead (about 75% equity). Against 6 combos of AK I am crushing (about 80% equity). So this averages out to 58% equity, which means it would be a profitable shove even if there was $0 in the pot. If you want to reduce my showdown equity by assuming that he'll fold QQ OTF, then you have to increase my fold equity OTF, so it pretty much evens out. And like I said, I don't expect any combos of AK that got to the flop to be folding TPTK on the flop. Why even call my raise in the first place if they think there's a good chance that they're dominated when they hit their TPTK? Are they hoping the flop will come exactly QJT, KKK or AAA? Either they'll fold AK to my preflop raise or they'll call with the intention of stacking off TPTK OTF. They're not calling preflop then folding the flop. That just makes zero sense.

Let's take an absolute worst case scenario: the villain only calls preflop with hands in the TT-KK range and folds everything else. In this case, we have 20% equity against 18/30 combos and 75% equity against 12/30 combos, which averages out to: (20*3/5 + 75*2/5)% = 42% equity. The breakeven point is 35% equity, so it's still profitable to shove here.

Unless you think that we can somehow predict that the villain will always check back the flop with AK and QQ and always bet the flop with a set, of which case it becomes more profitable to check the flop, see our opponent's reaction, then either fold the flop or shove the turn accordingly. But I just don't think we can make those assumptions about the villain.
 
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So you're saying a 300bb+ deep-stacked reg is stacking off QQ just because it is BE? You're also forgetting about rake. Fair point if he does fold QQ though.

AK is a pretty easy and lol fold here for any decent player. I'm assuming he's going to be a good reg that reads ranges well. Well, what's your all-in betting range here? And how much equity does AK have against it? It's nowhere close to 35%. It doesn't matter if the SPR is 1, and that he flopped TPTK.

If he flatted AKs here, he has position on you and a bunch of draws to the nuts. He has implied odds, is getting good pot odds pre, and you are pretty much never bluffing 300bb+ deep with a fish already all-in.

Your shove is only "profitable" because you are calculating that he stacks off all combos of AK. I'd say he stacks off close to none of his AK combos, maybe 1 or 1.5 at most. You're also forgetting he may have AQs sometimes, which means you're pretty much drawing dead.

I didn't say we can predict he checks back AK/QQ. But it'd make sense for him to, and he'd probably do it often. He has SDV, and your range is pretty face-up to some JJ/QQ/some KK/AA/AK. Why would he even bother betting? It does not accomplish anything, since you're most likeky either trapping him or checking to stack-off. It makes zero sense for him to do that, and he's most likely a thinking reg. There is no side pot either, so there is no point in trying to move you off your hand with the fish already all-in.
 
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N

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TT+ AQo+

1.If folds QQ/AK: folding 15/40 = .375
2. if folds AK .225

1. .375(24.65) + .149(53.92) - .851(29.27) = 9.24+8.03 – 24.9 = -7.47
2. .225(24.65) +.304(53.92) - .696(29.27) = 5.55+16.39-20.37 = 1.57

JJ+ AKo+
1. If folds QQ/AK: folding 15/21 .71%
2. If folds AK: 9/21 .43

1. .71(24.65) + .207(24.65+29.27) - .793(29.27) = 17.5+11.2-23.2 = 5.5
2. .43(24.65) + .476(53.92) - .524(29.27) = 10.6+25.7 – 15.33 = 20.97



some maths to add to the discussion. Seems like a shove is usually profitable depending on how much AQ is in opponents range and whether they call with QQ/AK. Doesn't mean shoving is best, but it will often be profitable
 
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I don't do intensive math on poker; I only know rough percentages. I focus more on hand ranging, value betting, and bluffcatching, which I believe are much more important.

Maybe I misworded it. His shove is probably usually "profitable" since he only needs around 33-35% equity overall to jam, but I don't think it is the most +EV/optimal line. We miss out on too much value from AK, for one. He might even call two small turn and river barrels hoping for a split, but I doubt he calls much with AK or at all to a flop jam. It's also nice for us to have QQ call a turn barrel, since we block two of its straight outs and are not giving him the right odds to draw.

Shoving really can't be that bad here. Barring that it is also super high variance, I just don't think it's the most optimal line. We're getting snapped off by everything that crushes us and folding out everything we beat.
 
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N

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yep i agree with your analysis.

I would say that math is important and useful to do every now and then... it is gambling after all; the entire field of probability theory came out of wanting to solve gambling problems. Sometimes the numbers can be surprising and make a big difference to decisions. It adds to a foundational game, providing a sold base to learn/have all the poker skills you described.
 
HowS

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I think the play was fine, getting it in pre probably won't make the differernce, but it was slightly better play imo.
 
Delvuter

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This is exactly why in the strategy article concerning deep stack it says,

"As your stack turns into a beanstalk and starts to grow, you need more than a cow and a few magic beans to risk it in an all-in showdown. Generally, hands such as top pair with an ace kicker are rarely good enough when stacking off for 300 big blinds. That means that hands like AK offsuit or AQ offsuit drop in value, while hands such as 89 suited gain in value.

You might look down and a Big Slick and shove with a short stack, but you shouldn't be jeopardising all of your money with a weak hand. Be patient, and get your money in good.,"

and because of that article I stress up and down on these forums that people are over valuing one single pair.

Obviously this situation is diff. because we have A's, but the instant that flop hits the board our A's turn to nothing or at least drop a ton in value and your bet turns into a bluff.

In the future I would try to get in the mindset of one pair is a crap hand deep stacked. Once you can look at A's in your pocket as crap after a flop comes out wetter than...well, something that's really really wet you will be in much better shape next time you are in a similar scenario.

When I get A's or K's now I don't see them the same way deep stacked on a wet board OOP, I see them as a crappy one pair. Even a stupid two pair beats it.
 
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