$10 NLHE 6-max: Bovada, QQ VS river bet.

Me(UTG) $10.00
P3(BTN) $7.73
P4(SB) $12.40
P5(BB) $5.90
P6(CO) $12.42


Pre Flop: Me(UTG) with [Qh,Qd]
P6(CO) folds, Me(UTG) raises 0.40, P3(BTN) calls 0.40, P4(SB) calls 0.35, P5(BB) calls 0.30


Flop: (2s,Ks,7s) (4 players)
P4(SB) checks, P5(BB) checks, Me(MP) bets 0.50, P3(BTN) calls 0.50, P4(SB) folds, P5(BB) calls 0.50


Turn: 8d (3 players)
P5(BB) checks, Me(MP) checks, P3(BTN) checks


River: 9d (3 players)
P5(BB) bets 1.55, Me?

_______________________________


I watched this table about 20 hands before sitting on table.

here is the the tell of this hand.
BB snap call defend blinds.
both button and BB tank 10 seconds+ call my flop bet
both button and BB snap check turn.

BB snap leading out river.


________

this hand I am not sure about Button's reaction.
I know button's range and BB's range.

but I did win this hand.
if you were sitting in my chair , how will you play this hand, and max value?

many thanks in advance

1) Flop bet was way too small. You can play this hand either way (cbet or check through) but your bet was a bad compromise of both.

2) Villain bet the river into 2 others, so he's typically not bluffing. Fold the river.

c9h13no3 said:

1) Flop bet was way too small. You can play this hand either way (cbet or check through) but your bet was a bad compromise of both.

2) Villain bet the river into 2 others, so he's typically not bluffing. Fold the river.

Click to expand...

I like my flop betting size, and it is precalculated before.

because it is VS 3 player.
I am against a 6.12% action range from a about 25%-30% preflop range.

besides

if flop action

my wining chance VS one player is about 55% VS 45%
my winning chance VS two potential calling players is about 33%+/-1% VS 33% +/-1%VS 33%+/-1%
my winning chance VS three potential calling players is about 25%+/-2% VS 25%+/-2% VS 25%+/-2% VS 25%+/-2%

therefore at this case, betting shows a little slight value, also the betting size range is between [X, X], it is the optimized zone based on maths.
and my betting size is in that range, I think it is correct but not sure it is best.

besides I don't know your Cbet size, not every common Cbet size you choose here is sitting in that optimized maths zone.

but here I want to get some ideas about the river action[ I am not experienced enough to, figuring the potential percentage of button players' reaction] , not sure which one is the best or max valued, since river more near a pure clear situation.

Your error bars of +/- 2% are really ridiculous. There's so much more that goes into bet sizing than chance of winning at showdown. So while some may be tricked into thinking your jumble of numbers is intelligent, to me it shows that you are a long ways off in left field.

Your river decision is affected by your flop and turn decisions. So sure, you want advice on the river, I'm giving it to you. Bet more on the flop and turn so you don't have to worry about paying off a few unlikely draws.

c9h13no3 said:

Your error bars of +/- 2% are really ridiculous. There's so much more that goes into bet sizing than chance of winning at showdown. So while some may be tricked into thinking your jumble of numbers is intelligent, to me it shows that you are a long ways off in left field.

Your river decision is affected by your flop and turn decisions. So sure, you want advice on the river, I'm giving it to you. Bet more on the flop and turn so you don't have to worry about paying off a few unlikely draws.

Click to expand...

it is something about the sample error.
If you don't know this concept obv, looks rediculous.

for your advice, did you read though my post about the tell part?
this hand leaks a lot of the flop, turn info, until the river play.

and for your comment, what range of the hand did you put that two players on flop and turn and river?

I think your advice is based on he level of regular player, did not fully use the information on the table.

but anyway thanks for your reply.

I have to agree with c9h here. There is no way your numbers can have a margin of error that small. Also, you can't just base a bet size on the percentage of winning the hand on the river. Most hands don't even make it to the river. A bluff is a substantial bet when the cards you hold have very little chance of winning at showdown. Are you saying a bluff should be 2% or 3% of the pot? The flop bet should have been MUCH larger. With 3 other players in the pot you are begging to be called by any weak draw or weak K. As for the reads/tells you were talking about...I don't think you can give much weight to the speed at which someone acts. Many players purposely change this up. I will click the auto check button sometimes when I flop a big hand. I will also snap call when I'm weak to try and get a free card. You also have many players who play multiple tables which alters their play speed.
Overall, I don't think I could call the river. There are too many hands that beat QQ here. Any weak K would have called the flop bet. Plus, there are flushes and straights out there.

Good Luck.

P3 &P5 have fishy stack sizes. P4 comes along for the pot odds. I don't understand your flop bet at all into 4 players. All kings and high spades will call. against 4 players if no one has a king you were very fortunate. Most of the time you are building a pot for their better hand.
I'd be looking to keep the pot as small as possible here from the flop onwards.

You must be a limit holdem player. Yeah, this is no-limit, so your bet size calcs aren't going to apply here since hands will be going to showdown less. I'm not even going to comment on how you arrived at your variance range.

But any ways, you had a read that you went with. Is there something here that people who didn't observe the hand will be able to tell you that you want to know? Betting the flop is marginally ok with the correct bet sizing, but you'd need to bet larger or check. But w/o applying a specific read, then folding the river would be appropriate since he's betting into two people and one of those people has been the aggressor in the hand.

John A said:

You must be a limit holdem player. Yeah, this is no-limit, so your bet size calcs aren't going to apply here since hands will be going to showdown less. I'm not even going to comment on how you arrived at your variance range.

But any ways, you had a read that you went with. Is there something here that people who didn't observe the hand will be able to tell you that you want to know? Betting the flop is marginally ok with the correct bet sizing, but you'd need to bet larger or check. But w/o applying a specific read, then folding the river would be appropriate since he's betting into two people and one of those people has been the aggressor in the hand.

Click to expand...

I just put my read part
my bet targeting to offer a slightly bad odds to spade draw and pairs.
but could not beat something like weak K+spade

besides if betting pot, at this table could not preventing draws to call, esp this table.

since BB snap call, means he is round 25% of the range.

flop VS this bet,
both two player think and call
means there is no big flush

there may be some set, KX, pair+spade, +A/Q spade+single card.
there are tank for odds, esp big blinds. if he got A with trash,here he got the right odds to call at least.

the turn, both quick check,

there fore no, set, no KX, because KX at least might put a bet, same is set.

after turn

there range is pretty transparent.
A/Q sapade+trash or middle pair+spade.

__________

river definitely is a blank

______________


Big blinds donk river is not scarey at all.
He is using either weak pair+spade to donk or A spade/Q spade to donk [ the only combo I lost here is 99 hit set, but it is very small part of his range]

considering Button mostly is a middle pair

I don't konw call better or raise better. because I do see button pays and want to win a side pot will here call using middle pair

but I called this river, think button might over call....I think raise looks like a bluff looks better.

and button tank and fold..


Big blinds is As3h...

I am happy about my reads but not happy about river play. -- since button range is might some thing like TT,JJ, 66 something...I think button might call raise for the sake of side pot.[I think I might win something more here]


Adding: I watched 20 hands, think there is no multi tabling player, because the raising and esp river betting size everyone at least one hand is manually input. and besides some tells here.