$10 NLHE 6-max: Is our boat ever good here? Facing river shove.

6

6bet me

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10NL 6-max zoom on pokerstars. Villain is unknown.

BTN: $23.89
SB: $7.42
BB: $13.35
UTG: $15.96
Hero (MP): $12.13
CO: $28.35

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is MP with Q:spade: Q:diamond:
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.30, 1 fold, BTN raises to $0.88, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.58

Flop: ($1.91) 9:diamond: A:spade: Q:heart: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.99, Hero calls $0.99

Turn: ($3.89) A:heart: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($3.89) 4:diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets $3, BTN raises to $22.02 all in

Is our boat ever actually good here? Does the villain ever take this line with a hand like AK or a bluff, or will he almost always show a higher boat / quads here? Should we consider folding this river?
 
TimovieMan

TimovieMan

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99 takes this line as well, thinking to get value from AK/AJ/AT.
And I wouldn't put it past the people at these stakes to do this with AK at all.

So we have 3 combos of 99 and 8 combos of AK that we beat, and 2 combos of AQ and 1 combo of AA that we're behind. Would he 3-bet A9 preflop? As then we have to count those 6 combos as well.

Ahead of 11, behind 3-9.
At worst we still have more than 50% equity. Even if we discount the AK hands to half, the call is still +EV, imo.
 
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