$10 NLHE 6-max: To bluff or not to bluff?

loopmeister

loopmeister

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PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

MP: $11.21
Hero (CO): $18.64
BTN: $10.00
SB: $4.05
BB: $11.10
UTG: $13.86

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has 4 4

fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN raises to $0.90, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.95, 2 players) 6 3 7
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.30, Hero calls $1.30

Turn: ($4.55, 2 players) A
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($4.55, 2 players) T
Hero?

I've been stealing quite wide (~30%) from CO, but villain is reasonably tight.

I called the flop thinking I'm either ahead, or can get value from 88+ if I hit my set or straight. I have villain on an overpair or AJ+.

On the river, am I right in thinking that villain's range is almost all bluff-catching hands? I could easily have a set, an Ace or a turned flush so even though my hand is behind 90% of the time, a pot size bet should take this down 4/5 times?
 
bgomez89

bgomez89

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Fold pre fold flop. You have no odds to hit a set
 
MediaBLITZ

MediaBLITZ

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You could give it a shot, after all it's about the only hope you have to take this pot down. But I think you missed your best opportunity by failing to bet the turn.

His check may indicate the ace and flush draw scared him and he smells a trap, but you are giving him extra time to think about it which you shouldn't. Go after him while his fear is fresh. Your failure to bet it at that point may very well translate to him that you also were afraid of the ace and flush, so he figures out his over pair may be worth a call.

I really hate that river since TT is in his range.

Calling the flop was really strange to me. Did this guy have a history of bluffing? I assume not since you made a point to mention how tight he was.
With 6 outs you are just over 3-1 against making your hand and your pot odds are just over 2-1 - what led you to calling this - your gut?
 
brank

brank

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Fold pre.


I called the flop thinking I'm either ahead, or can get value from 88+ if I hit my set or straight. I have villain on an overpair or AJ+.

You wont get a tight player to give you much action when you hit a set or a straight on the turn so its deff not worth to call the flop.
 
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