$10 NLHE 6-max: Big Draw vs Two-Fishes

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 82.5 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 36)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 22.21, PFR: 16.61, 3Bet Preflop: 4.21, Hands: 659)
MP: 70.7 BB (VPIP: 58.33, PFR: 20.83, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 225)
CO: 230.2 BB (VPIP: 57.14, PFR: 33.93, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 156)
BTN: 117.4 BB (VPIP: 24.13, PFR: 21.23, 3Bet Preflop: 8.87, Hands: 620)
Hero (SB): 100 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♦ K♦

fold, MP bets 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 10 BB, BB calls 9 BB, MP calls 7 BB

Flop: (30 BB, 3 players) J♦ 8♣ 4♦
Hero bets 22.5 BB, BB calls 22.5 BB, MP calls 22.5 BB

Turn: (97,5 BB, 3 players) Q♣
Hero ???

Hi,
I don't know what to do on the turn (?)
Preflop is pretty standard 3 Bet against fish, could be a bit larger, the BB Cold Calls and CO called my 3bet.
On the flop I get Two-Overs and Nuts-Flush-Draw so I'm definitley CBetting this flop and I'm ready to stick it in against those kind of opponents. They Both Call.
Turn gives me an straght draw to go with my Two-Overs and Flush Draw and to be honest I don't know what to do? Bet? Shove? Check? I'm defintly behind right now and I have zero fold equity against them.

pokekrk said:

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 82.5 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 36)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 22.21, PFR: 16.61, 3Bet Preflop: 4.21, Hands: 659)
MP: 70.7 BB (VPIP: 58.33, PFR: 20.83, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 225)
CO: 230.2 BB (VPIP: 57.14, PFR: 33.93, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 156)
BTN: 117.4 BB (VPIP: 24.13, PFR: 21.23, 3Bet Preflop: 8.87, Hands: 620)
Hero (SB): 100 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♦ K♦

fold, MP bets 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 10 BB, BB calls 9 BB, MP calls 7 BB

Flop: (30 BB, 3 players) J♦ 8♣ 4♦
Hero bets 22.5 BB, BB calls 22.5 BB, MP calls 22.5 BB

Turn: (97,5 BB, 3 players) Q♣
Hero ???

Hi,
I don't know what to do on the turn (?)
Preflop is pretty standard 3 Bet against fish, could be a bit larger, the BB Cold Calls and CO called my 3bet.
On the flop I get Two-Overs and Nuts-Flush-Draw so I'm definitley CBetting this flop and I'm ready to stick it in against those kind of opponents. They Both Call.
Turn gives me an straght draw to go with my Two-Overs and Flush Draw and to be honest I don't know what to do? Bet? Shove? Check? I'm defintly behind right now and I have zero fold equity against them.

Click to expand...

Check.Desk has flush of clubs draw, flush of diamonds, and straight draw. If someone of them have pair of queens, he will go all-in. If MP goes all-in, its easy call(u have 18 outs to get best hand, its like 35%, pot will give u more then 3 to 1 value). If BB goes all-in and MP calls, its easy call too, if BB all-in and MP fold, u fold. Also u call any bets lower than 45bbs.

Yeah, Ozzzzzzy pretty much has this covered. We check and call depending on who makes the bet. Any bet will be a shove at this point, I'm guessing.

How do we feel about the bet-sizing on the flop, given the remaining stacks and players? Good? Bad? Could be better? What are we hoping will happen on the flop when we bet?

A fun (read: difficult) question to ponder is whether there's ever value in shoving this river. If there is, where does that come from? How thin is it?

I think w/ two short stack donks I'm probably CRAI on the flop. They'll probably have some Jx in their range and probably TT they may fold out. If I'm betting, I'm probably betting around 19bbs on the flop. as played, giving up on the turn. Hoping for a check through.

Thanks for replays! Here is how I fix he problem.
I asked myself what range would MP call my raise and BB Cold Call?
I think that if he is weak player he would call pretty wide range: any pocket pair, any suited brodway and i give him some suited-connectors:

MP range: 22-TT,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,ATo+,KJo+

What would BB Cold Call? I think his range will be pretty much the same, but I give him stronger range:

BB range: 99+,AJs+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,AQo+,KQo

I pluged this to equity calculator and I have nearly 50% of equity (49,82%) against both opponents.
CBet at this kind of board is in my oppinion is standard, but what about open shove? I pluged numrers to fold equity calculator:

http://redchippoker.com/fold-equity-calculator/

Pot size bet before you shove: 30BB
How much do you have to call: 0BB
How much are you shoving total: 72,5BB (effective stack)
Estimated equity: 50%
Breakeven if villan fold: -100%

So shove is EV+, check-riase even more so but I think this opponent are too passive.

Turn:

What they would call my CBet with?

MP: TT,88,AJs,KJs,QTs+,JTs,T9s,AJo
BB: 99+,AJs,KJs,QJs,JTs

I have 27,7% equity, any CBet now is All-in so I plugged the numbers into fold equity calculator and it shows that shove is EV+ even if villans never fold.

In real MP had Qd7d (so his range was wider then I assumed), BB had KcJs.
Against those hands I have 41,5% equity at flop and shove is EV+, and on the turn I have 30% so again shoving is OK.

Raise more pre 4 to 5bb for value..

I like check raising or shoving

Check calling turn we have 0 fold equity hoping we get a free card though

I think is better check/call, because if you raisethe opponet can re-raise and u gona fold, só just check