$10 NLHE 6-max: Bet or check on this river?

remus_ny

remus_ny

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poker stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players

BTN: $11.38 - VPIP: 29, PFR: 26, 3B: 10, AF: 4.4, Hands: 154
SB: $7.26 - VPIP: 33, PFR: 24, 3B: 0, AF: 4.0, hands: 21
Hero (BB): $10.15 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 15, 3B: 5, AF: 3.8, Hands: 194910
UTG: $13.16 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 16, 3B: 2, AF: 5.5, Hands: 294
CO: $11.24 - VPIP: 66, PFR: 28, 3B: 5, AF: 1.3, Hands: 50

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with :ac4: :qc4:
2 folds, BTN raises to $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65) :ah4: :2s4: :4d4: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.40, Hero raises to $1.20, BTN calls $0.80

Turn: ($3.05) :jh4: (2 players)
Hero bets $2.00, BTN calls $2

River: ($7.05) :6s4: (2 players)

Hero ??? What should I do? bet or check? I'm a little confused here. is he slowplaying something here?
He likes to steal and resteal a lot, so I decided to call, and check raise the flop but when he calls the turn....
 
DaReKa

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Depends on his post flop stats, but check call probably. I wouldn't raise the flop either. Bet/fold works too if he's a station.
 
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ScottishMatt

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X/Fold. He isn't going to bet AT here, if he can even have AT in this spot.
 
John A

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X/Fold. He isn't going to bet AT here, if he can even have AT in this spot.

It's an open button situation and the blind can be CR much wider than normal so btn's flop and turn calling range is going to widen as well.

Bet/fold for value.
 
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ScottishMatt

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Does he call worse here ever?

I see most of his range that we beat just praying for a showdown here. I don't reckon those hands can call a triple unless we are a super LAG, which clearly we're not.

Also if we are bet/folding, what is our sizing. Half pot?
 
DaReKa

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Does he call worse here ever?

I see most of his range that we beat just praying for a showdown here. I don't reckon those hands can call a triple unless we are a super LAG, which clearly we're not.

Also if we are bet/folding, what is our sizing. Half pot?
Depends on the opponent. There are a lot of stations at 10NL who will be calling with any Ace. Although his stats look a lot better than the typical fish.
 
John A

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Does he call worse here ever?

I see most of his range that we beat just praying for a showdown here. I don't reckon those hands can call a triple unless we are a super LAG, which clearly we're not.

Also if we are bet/folding, what is our sizing. Half pot?

Yes... and given OP then he can keep his opponent pretty straight forward and size around 3ish.. I'd probably so 3.25 on the river and fold to a shove. He will call a lot of worse Ax.

But there is a good learning point here. If you are a tight player, you need to know that it's going to be difficult to get 3 streets of value from your opponent with only top pair. In a btn/blind dynamic, you have a little more leeway, but it's still not huge. You'd probably have gotten more value by c/c,c/c (to try and get your opponent to push the tight player off his range), and then bomb river. Well, not bomb, but bet. Once you c/r you're telling your opponent (based on the player you are) that you probably have a big hand. You won't have air quite as much as some other players might, but it's still possible of course.

In a nutshell, he's under repped his hand pre-flop, but began over repping it post, which is a mistake. That being said, you want to try and force your opponent to have to make crying calls with worse Ax. The worst that happens is they fold some of that range. C/fing in this dynamic is a mistake at these stakes imho.
 
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ScottishMatt

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If you feel X/F here is bad due to it being 10NL can't I make the same argument for the whole BTN/Blind dynamic that very few players at this level will understand?

I don't think it is unreasonable for a player like this to flat flop with As5s for example and then flat turn as well, I just can't think that he stations enough here for us to be profitable, unless he is willing to call us down light for some un-highlighted reason.

The fact that our sizing indicates an obvious valuebet makes me less inclined to bet here as well. LAGs are generally good hand readers, well, better than me anyway. I can't imagine a 17/15 X/R'ing flop and then tripling with nothing. Don't imagine villain does either.

Would like other input here from more experienced members. John is obviously an extremely successful and knowledgeable player but all my experience at the micros tell me this is a bad spot to be betting.
 
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cokenol

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hi in my point of view i here a good bet it looks to me like you are on top it does not look like is fishing you poker is a game of feelings too not easy to judge but if he win you must say to him nh because even if lucky he played good (unless is a lucky river in this case i leave it to your fantasy what to say to him but never offending) have a nice game ciao
 
John A

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If you feel X/F here is bad due to it being 10NL can't I make the same argument for the whole BTN/Blind dynamic that very few players at this level will understand?

I think at 10NL people understand that players opening ranges and defending ranges are going to be wider. So whether they completely understand how that will assimilate to equity versus an entire range is questionable, but I'm sure at some level reasonable players at micros get that concept.

I don't think it is unreasonable for a player like this to flat flop with As5s for example and then flat turn as well, I just can't think that he stations enough here for us to be profitable, unless he is willing to call us down light for some un-highlighted reason.

So if you believe that, and that he will have some other Ax, then why not bet? Most of his range will be worse Ax, some of which will look to check behind.

The fact that our sizing indicates an obvious valuebet makes me less inclined to bet here as well. LAGs are generally good hand readers, well, better than me anyway. I can't imagine a 17/15 X/R'ing flop and then tripling with nothing. Don't imagine villain does either.

Would like other input here from more experienced members. John is obviously an extremely successful and knowledgeable player but all my experience at the micros tell me this is a bad spot to be betting.

OP CR the flop, and bet 3 streets with a bet sizing that "appears" committed. No LAG is going to shove with worse, even at much higher stakes. Also, as you move up, you're going to need to call down in spots like this with a lot more hands than Ax. Just as an FYI for what's to come.
 
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baudib1

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yeah I'd go with John here and bet around $3-$4 and fold to raise. Pretty basic spot.
 
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baudib1

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The fact that our sizing indicates an obvious valuebet makes me less inclined to bet here as well. LAGs are generally good hand readers, well, better than me anyway. I can't imagine a 17/15 X/R'ing flop and then tripling with nothing. Don't imagine villain does either.

Bet/folding is the absolute essence of playing TAG and destroying micros, when you learn this you will improve your win rate instantly. LOfnL at at 10 NL LAGs turning AT/worse into a bluff because our sizing looks weak.

Another thing to work on is to stop worrying about what worse hands call all the time. When you have a hand worth betting then bet it; people suck at poker and they can be really creative in finding ways to put money into the pot.
 
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ScottishMatt

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I'm not saying he is willing to shove worse OTR when we fire. I'm saying he can easily identify that we only have better when we bet $3 here, and therefore is capable of folding the majority of his weak Ax. The problem I have is that every value hand he has plays the exact same as Ax here. We are left in a spot where everything that beats us is going to ship the river if we bet and yet we aren't guaranteed a call by the hands we beat because villain is good enough to identify that we have his Ax beat here.

And I understand that at higher stakes it may be correct to call here with Ax, but this isn't higher stakes and people aren't tripling with air here. At least regulars aren't.

Edit - Where the **** did I indicate I think he is bluff shoving over the top of us here? The point I'm making is that it is obvious he is beat if he has Ax. His range for doing anything other than folding OTR is weighted towards hands that beat us IMO.
 
John A

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I'm not saying he is willing to shove worse OTR when we fire. I'm saying he can easily identify that we only have better when we bet $3 here, and therefore is capable of folding the majority of his weak Ax. The problem I have is that every value hand he has plays the exact same as Ax here. We are left in a spot where everything that beats us is going to ship the river if we bet and yet we aren't guaranteed a call by the hands we beat because villain is good enough to identify that we have his Ax beat here.

And I understand that at higher stakes it may be correct to call here with Ax, but this isn't higher stakes and people aren't tripling with air here. At least regulars aren't.

Edit - Where the **** did I indicate I think he is bluff shoving over the top of us here? The point I'm making is that it is obvious he is beat if he has Ax. His range for doing anything other than folding OTR is weighted towards hands that beat us IMO.

If you believe how you're thinking about this spot is correct, then OP should never bet the turn correct?

I don't think based on how OP plays he should have CR the flop, and perhaps that's something he'll learn from this hand. That aside, you have to be extra sure that opponent is never betting worse or AQ to recommend c/f after putting 1/3rd of your stack in. Additionally, you have to be near 100% certain your opponent is never calling with worse to justify missing value here. I don't think we could say either of those, so c/fing is not the correct line. Now is bet, if we count the combos here some massively +EV play? No. But it is narrow EV and it will force your opponent to pay to see as well. C/C would only have more merit if there were some more draws, history, or a more aggressive opponent. Doesn't seem like that applies here.

Any ways, it's just how I'd play the spot so take it for what it's worth.
 
John A

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I should also add, that OP's opponent is likely a bad LAG, so how they think about the situation and what their calling ranges are going to be will be much different than how you think about the situation. I probably should have said that earlier as well.
 
remus_ny

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by the way.. my stats are 21/18 3B 8 in the last 50k hands, don't look at 17/15. That was when I started, I've opened my game a lot. HM shows stats overall
 
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I'm not saying he is willing to shove worse OTR when we fire. I'm saying he can easily identify that we only have better when we bet $3 here, and therefore is capable of folding the majority of his weak Ax. The problem I have is that every value hand he has plays the exact same as Ax here. We are left in a spot where everything that beats us is going to ship the river if we bet and yet we aren't guaranteed a call by the hands we beat because villain is good enough to identify that we have his Ax beat here.

And I understand that at higher stakes it may be correct to call here with Ax, but this isn't higher stakes and people aren't tripling with air here. At least regulars aren't.

Edit - Where the **** did I indicate I think he is bluff shoving over the top of us here? The point I'm making is that it is obvious he is beat if he has Ax. His range for doing anything other than folding OTR is weighted towards hands that beat us IMO.

If everything that beats us ships river then that's totally fine as we have a pretty damn easy fold. If he's such a good handreader and isn't going to call the river with worse Ax then why is he calling flop and turn?

Incidentally, the amount of times we will be behind here are going to be incredibly rare. LAGs are never flatting a flop C-R with sets/2 pair.

So we're left with:
1. If we bet and he shoves, we fold and it's fine.
2. If we bet and he calls with worse, it's great.
3. If we bet and he folds worse, that's also fine.

When we check and he checks back his pretty obvious Ax it's a disaster.
 
Aleksei

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Just one question, Matt:

How wide do you think Villain opens the button?
 
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I'll resign myself to John's wisdom here, assume that he is bad and therefore agree that a river bet/fold is best.

I have one very large issue with your post however Baudib . . . If he is never flatting with a set/two pair here then he must always assume that we have a value hand, never any bluffs, and just wants to get the money in. Correct?

If that is the case, then how can he ever call us down with Ax here?
 
John A

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I'll resign myself to John's wisdom here, assume that he is bad and therefore agree that a river bet/fold is best.

I have one very large issue with your post however Baudib . . . If he is never flatting with a set/two pair here then he must always assume that we have a value hand, never any bluffs, and just wants to get the money in. Correct?

If that is the case, then how can he ever call us down with Ax here?

It's not assuming he's bad, it's more about trying to think like your opponent. I'm going to make the assumption he's a bad LAG because if he were a good LAG, he wouldn't be playing micros. I think that's a pretty good assumption. You're thinking a bit more nitty/tag about this situation, and he's thinking more about how he would bluff against someone's range in this spot and likely make a lot more crying calls than you would in this situation.

The first mistake in this hand is OP CRing the flop. It's not the most awesome flop texture to look to CR, but it's not bad for a lot of players if they have more air in their range or have opponents who will tend to think they're FOS. OP doesn't really fall into that category, so he'd get more value from allowing btn to think his range isn't as strong as it is since he under reped it pre-flop. CRing kind of kills the point of flatting pre based on how OP plays. He says he's 21/17 or so now, which is still pretty nitty tight for 6-max.

Now OP compounds it by betting the turn since he should again allow his opponent to think he made a play and is now giving up (which would be more in accord with his likely style, especially from his opponents eyes). Instead he's firing 3 barrels with no real history and putting himself in a much more narrow EV situation that he could have.
 
Aleksei

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I don't think Matt sees a separation between the words "LAG" and "bad." :p
 
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I'll resign myself to John's wisdom here, assume that he is bad and therefore agree that a river bet/fold is best.

I have one very large issue with your post however Baudib . . . If he is never flatting with a set/two pair here then he must always assume that we have a value hand, never any bluffs, and just wants to get the money in. Correct?

If that is the case, then how can he ever call us down with Ax here?

Because top pair is a pretty good hand, and people don't like to fold top pair.

I'd shove the river before I checked.
 
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ScottishMatt

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Thanks for that breakdown John. Like I said I'll go with you on this, but I feel it's so marginal/thin.

Baudib I feel your logic here is so majorly flawed. First you say to just bet when we have a hand regardless of whether we feel villain is calling with worse. Isn't the essence of valuebetting just that though?

We should always be looking to match our hand vs opponents range and value bet or bluff accordingly.

No doubt my advice was subjected to my own thought process somewhat and isn't as accurate. Particularly the part about his calling range OTR, however I'm correct in thinking that he plays all his value hands this way, of that I'm sure. He understands at the very least that we can bluff here, or else he never calls with Ax.

I stoved our hand vs his range earlier and if we give him every combo of Ax then we only have a 4% equity lead. If he can bluff catch here with Ax then it's +EV, albeit very marginally.
 
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baudib1

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Baudib I feel your logic here is so majorly flawed. First you say to just bet when we have a hand regardless of whether we feel villain is calling with worse. Isn't the essence of valuebetting just that though?

We should always be looking to match our hand vs opponents range and value bet or bluff accordingly.

No doubt my advice was subjected to my own thought process somewhat and isn't as accurate. Particularly the part about his calling range OTR, however I'm correct in thinking that he plays all his value hands this way, of that I'm sure. He understands at the very least that we can bluff here, or else he never calls with Ax.

I stoved our hand vs his range earlier and if we give him every combo of Ax then we only have a 4% equity lead. If he can bluff catch here with Ax then it's +EV, albeit very marginally.

The No. 1 piece of advice for playing micros is to bet until you get raised and then re-evaluate. It's not, "Bet until you pussy out on the river."

You are seriously overestimating 10 NL villains if you think a 29/26 LAG can hand-read; John A. said it perfectly -- if a guy like that could hand-read he'd be playing 50 NL-100 NL.

We are going to be beat here by the very occasional AK/AJ and 53 and that's it.

I don't know how you are stoving things but I give him 1 combo of a set and A7o+, A2s+ (leaving out the A5o type hands) and we're destroying him:




Board: Ah 2s 4d Jh 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.000% 60.00% 05.00% 36 3.00 { AcQc }
Hand 1: 35.000% 30.00% 05.00% 18 3.00 { AA, A2s+, A7o+ }


This is conservative/pessimistic because there's every likelihood he is not going to play better hands this way (A4/AJ put a raise in before river).

This means that he can fold worse Ax 44.6% of the time and we still have a profitable bet vs. his calling range. If you think 10 NL players are folding top pair BTN vs. BB (especially getting 3-1 odds) anywhere near that often you have MAT (Monsters at the Table) syndrome and you are very obviously checking down the best hand way too often.
 
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for me its an easy raise preflop so u take control ofthe hand.
going to the river u must value bet your hand, if bet the turn you must bet the riverthe 6 is ireleavant.
 
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