$10 NLHE 6-max: Best option on the flop?

Lemlywinks

Lemlywinks

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$10 NL HE 6-max: Best option on the flop?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 22/6/3.5

Okay, nothing too big handwise here, but I'm looking for a bit of advice. Villain and I have a little history (only 50 hands) but more importantly we've had an encounter like this the previous rotation. I raise in MP, he min raises from the blinds, and I flat. Flop the first time was a brick, and I folded to his cbet.

this time around i take the initiative and 3bet rather large pre. With a 1.5 bet facing us on the flop and a pot of ~4.75ish, Is peeling that smallish cbet on the flop this time around good or bad? I don't really want to 3bet fold With an aggro of 3.5 (definitely something that fit him), I assume he will stack off lite if I hit. Thoughts?
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HAND #1
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poker stars, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BTN: $10.95 (109.5 bb)
SB: $5.10 (51 bb)
BB: $12.15 (121.5 bb)
UTG: $7.15 (71.5 bb)
Hero (MP): $14.75 (147.5 bb)
CO: $11.45 (114.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP with A
heart4.gif
K
club4.gif

UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.35, 3 folds, BB raises to $0.60, Hero raises to $2.20, BB calls $1.60

Flop: ($4.45) 6
spade4.gif
2
club4.gif
5
spade4.gif
(2 players)
BB bets $1.50, Hero
 
Emperor IX

Emperor IX

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 22/6/3.5

Okay, nothing too big handwise here, but I'm looking for a bit of advice. Villain and I have a little history (only 50 hands) but more importantly we've had an encounter like this the previous rotation. I raise in MP, he min raises from the blinds, and I flat. Flop the first time was a brick, and I folded to his cbet.

this time around i take the initiative and 3bet rather large pre. With a 1.5 bet facing us on the flop and a pot of ~4.75ish, Is peeling that smallish cbet on the flop this time around good or bad? I don't really want to 3bet fold With an aggro of 3.5 (definitely something that fit him), I assume he will stack off lite if I hit. Thoughts?
--------------------
HAND #1
--------------------

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BTN: $10.95 (109.5 bb)
SB: $5.10 (51 bb)
BB: $12.15 (121.5 bb)
UTG: $7.15 (71.5 bb)
Hero (MP): $14.75 (147.5 bb)
CO: $11.45 (114.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP with A
heart4.gif
K
club4.gif

UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.35, 3 folds, BB raises to $0.60, Hero raises to $2.20, BB calls $1.60

Flop: ($4.45) 6
spade4.gif
2
club4.gif
5
spade4.gif
(2 players)
BB bets $1.50, Hero

His pf min3bet +flat4bet=JJ+ here imo. raising here isn't terrible, since he's capable of doing it with AK, but I doubt it.
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

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^^^ agree on the range, really don't think this is AK.

I'm not keen on peeling, you're going to miss on the turn most of the time and end up folding. With this hand, I don't really want to continue past the flop, I either want to take it down now or fold and look for a better opportunity.

Raising is a problem - you'll have too much of your stack committed (if stacks were deeper, I'd love to raise 2.5x or 3x).

Shoving is an option - that small bet looks alot like JJ/QQ being scared of KK+ (it also looks like KK+ from a fish trying to get value) - but I don't like shoving against this villain type, like you say, he'll likely (correctly in this case) stack off w any pair.

Given all the problems, I hem and haw for five seconds before finding the fold button.
 
W

WossaPotOddz

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It's definately a push/fold situation.

Villain has TT+, AK. Shoving all in should fold out all hands except aces and kings and since you an ace and king in your hand there's less chance villain is holding the 2 hands we're scared of.

Problem is the pot odds being offered to the villain. It's $8.45 into $16.30 which is 2-1 and although you have played the hand like it's the nuts it doesn't guarantee queens fold which is probably the decider with regards to range:fold equity.

There's 6 hands in villains range

TT, JJ probably fold like 80% of the time
QQ probably folds 25% of the time
KK-AA snap it 100%
AK folds 100%

KK-AA are the least likely since you hold 1 of each and the villains line is identical with any of the 6 hands in the range imo but we'll say villain shows up with these 25% of the time.

QQ - 30% of the time
TT-JJ - 35% of the time
AK - 10% of the time

KK-AA = 8.826% equity 100% of the time
QQ = 25.896% equity 75% of the time
TT-JJ = 25.896% equity 20% of the time
AK = 100% equity 100% of the time

Current pot = $5.95
Final pot = $24.30
Investment = $9.95

KK-AA = 24.3*.08826 = $2.14-$9.95 = -$7.81
QQ = ((24.3*.25896)*.75)+(5.95*.25) = $6.21-$9.95 = -$3.74
TT-JJ = ((24.3*.25896)*.2)+(5.95*.8) = $6.02-$9.95 = -$3.93
AK = 5.95*1 = +$5.95

Without even factoring in these results to the range %'s you can see how badly the shove fares.

Fold the ace high bro
 
Deltafrost

Deltafrost

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I had this come up with me a bit earlier in the month. Basically you cant flat so your options are shove or fold and I dont see him laying down any of his range here unless it includes AK which i doubt. Pretty sure you just have to fold it.

However I do like the idea of 4bet shoving with AK because we dont deal with these stupid spots and its not apparent at these levels. When it becomes apparent we balance by 4bet shoving AA as well.
 
Lemlywinks

Lemlywinks

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Okay thanks for the responses guys. I ended up flatting :(, but after I looked back on it I knew that wasn't the right idea
 
Forsmann

Forsmann

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U have 2 overcards & possibly play against small pair or 2 pictures. opp minrased preflop & bet 1/3 pot on flop-u have nice odds to call, but should rerase
 
M

MercilessKiller

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This may seem a bit conservative but I would have considered calling pre flop due to your positional advantage.

Out of position that raise is absolutely fine every time. In position though you're only getting called by hands which are going to cause you real problems on a flop like this one..

I much prefer taking a more conservative approach in position and no point building a huge pot with a high card pre flop in my opinion :)
 
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