$10 NLHE 6-max: Barrel river vs passive vill?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 26/12/1

poker stars $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1646048
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MP: $25.73
CO: $30.16
BTN: $16.51
Hero (SB): $20.74
BB: $15.96
UTG: $16.00

Pre Flop: ($0.24) Hero is SB with 8 :spade: 7 :spade:
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.48, BB calls $0.32

Flop: ($0.96) 4 :club: J :spade: 2 :club: (2 players)
Hero bets $0.64, BB calls $0.64

Turn: ($2.24) 7 :heart: (2 players)
Hero bets $1.28, BB calls $1.28

River: ($4.80) Q :club: (2 players)

Guy folds to stl from the BB 40% (5) i dont mind the open, looking at it now I think i'd like a bit more equity on the flop as he probs doesnt go away easily, but as played I think the 7 ott is fine to barrel on, when the river comes though, if this was the Q of any other suit I'm firing again, as it completes the FD......meh, can we still go for 3 barrels and hope for folds from his Jx hands, or are we too scared of the flush getting there?

Whats up with the massive raise pre? Almost 5x in SB?
I think flop cbet is standard because its pretty dry, turn could bet again because still only Jx in his range beats you.
Maybe B/F river really small like $1.05 max because he's rarely raising with most of his range and it might entice PP's <7 to call out of interest.

Just fold preflop. He's not going to be folding often enough to make stealing profitable outright and his stationy tendencies are going to make playing OOP postflop a pain in the ass.

As played I probably do bet the river, get called by a Jack, and think what a donk. In other words just check/fold and save yourself the $$s.

jbbb said:

Whats up with the massive raise pre?

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16nl lol , no option for it atm

orangepeeleo said:

16nl lol , no option for it atm

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Oh sweet a new limit at PS

16NL? wtf.

Pre and flop seem fine. It's a strong enough hand to open imo even if BB is loose. I don't often c-bet OOP vs fish but this flop seems good enough to do it. K27/Q83 sorta flops were there is one high card and no co-ordination are usually my favourites to bluff even fish with as unlike 378 sorta flops I'm not having overcards call me. This flop isn't perfect with the flush draw and a jack not being as good as a king or queen in my eyes but good enough. I'd use the same sizing also.

The turn I don't hate but I think it's too thin. Villain isn't quite loose enough to have many fours or twos in his range or to be guaranteed to call with them and 55/66. There are flush draws sure but when holding low cards think of our equity. Chances are he has overcards to our pair and is drawing to 15outs rather than nine. We also face the same dilema as in another recent thread were we are going to face a river we can't comfortably call bluffs from the busted draws with although looking at this player he shouldn't do it that often. Meanwhile 88+/Jx has us crushed.

I prefer to check/fold or check/call the turn. Without further stats I'm going with a check/fold, 26/12s don't have much bluff in them, there is a decent range beating us and our equity against semi-bluffs isn't that good. Small favourite/big dog.

As for the river I assume your tuning your hand into a bluff. Against a reg it's a beautiful card to do so, jacks are likely to fold with both the queen and the flush draw looming. Against a fish I just check/fold, the jacks are far from guaranteed to fold as villain is a fish and he will have far more flushes in his range than a reg as his preflop range is wider and is more likely to flat.

Check/fold river, and fold pre.

Other important stats to consider here are fold vs steal in bb and fold vs cb.

i would steal here because i assume he will fold more often than not preflop to show profit if we raise to 3x. We also have a playable hand postflop and can cb half pot on a lot of good boards and take it down.

You dont have fold equity post flop vs made hands at the micros. Its amazing how often bad players and regs will call you down with top pair vs any action and board texture. I really dont like to think i can barrel anyone off anything ever because you just end up spewing a buy in.

How many players at 16nl can read hands? How many can read hands and act on their read? How many think what you think they have? How many think beyond what 2 cards are in their face and how they match up to the board?

You can rep the nuts all day but it doesnt matter if they cant even see you trying to rep in the first place.

Anyways on the turn you can still have the best hand and i think bet folding is better than xc mostly because i dont want his weird over cards or draws to get a free river when i can get them to fold on the turn. On the river i would just xf. I dont think that he will bluff often enough to make you have to hero call.

fcbet, fturn cbet and WTSD?