$10 NLHE 6-max: Backdoor flush vs fish with deep stacks

No Brainer

No Brainer

Losing keeps me sane
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 27, 2009
Total posts
1,853
Chips
0
Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 67/4/1.5

Really torn between calling and raising on this river. Villain is a big fish and could be raising with just a 3 or any set but if we raise here we really have to call a shove right? Or do we shove ourselves hoping to get value from these worse hands and putting it down as a cooler if we are beat?

poker stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $12.88 (128.8 bb)
BB: $10.63 (106.3 bb)
UTG: $12.97 (129.7 bb)
Hero (MP): $20.97 (209.7 bb)
CO: $28.02 (280.2 bb) 67/4 39%agg over 89 hands
BTN: $10 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 7
diamond4.gif
8
diamond4.gif

UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.30, CO calls $0.30, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.75) 2
spade4.gif
5
diamond4.gif
A
heart4.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $0.41, CO calls $0.41

Turn: ($1.57) J
diamond4.gif
(2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($1.57) 4
diamond4.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $2.65, CO raises to $5.30, Hero ???
 
ConDeck

ConDeck

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 14, 2015
Total posts
973
Chips
0
I don't see any reason to raise here as a general rule but against this fish its a bit more complicated. Fish generally don't bluff rivers, but that definitely doesnt mean he isnt overvaluing a straight/set here and playing it like the nuts (so not bluffing as far as he is concerned)?

44 is really the only set in villains range here given his check back on the turn, even passive fish tend to bet sets. There are a few straights, but not that many. The 35% of his range he folds contains a lot of 3's as a general rule so we are still looking at like A3, 34s, 35s, 33 really. Even this kind of loose fish can usually find a fold with the likes of 73o T3o preflop. I'd give him a general range of 33,44,A3,34,35 that we beat. Theres only really 3 or 4 combs of diamonds that have us beat, KQdd KTdd 9Tdd. I'd expect even this fish to bet Axdd on the turn, although maybe not so we should probably include the 5 combos of Axdd in his range also.

So villans entire range is probably like:

44-33,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad6d,KdQd,KdTd,QdTd,Td9d,A3s,53s,43s,A3o,43o.

We can maybe even widen it to include some 2P and spaz hands.

Your like 80% or something against this range, so if you feel villain will call a raise with the entire/most of the above range it is a clear shove. If we are raising here i feel it should be a shove, as you say we pretty much have to call off any reshove by villain even if we make it like $13 if we think he plays a straight/set as the nuts, yet we give him the option to just call losing $6-7 in value when we make it that size. Any hand he is calling a raise to $13/14 with he is calling a shove, so go for max value and ship it.

It does suck being this deep sticking it in without the nuts but I think we lose to much value against this particular villain by calling. Although calling is by no means a bad play, just less profitable (albeit lower variance). Just expect to be beat sometimes.
 
dobatibata

dobatibata

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 20, 2014
Total posts
427
Chips
0
just call, don't be greedy. my opinion is that you are nuts in this situation, BUT he's playing points us to his flush maybe. You said that he is fish so idk, yeah he might re-raised with str8. anyway, call would be good.

proverb: "Who wants more lose even what he has"
 
M

MinhANguyen

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2015
Total posts
695
Chips
0
Just call and expect to lose a decent amount of the time. You made a super polarizing overbet, and still got raised. I think this is a flush a lot of time. People don't play back light generally when you make a super polarized overbet from my few personal experience. They'll just call with the J high/10 high flush instead of raising. I don't have that many times where I overbet 1.5x or more in general, but whenever I got raised it was always the absolute nuts. Of course he may have a worse hand here occasionally, but I don't think reraising is +EV in the long term.
 
Full Flush Poker
Top