$10 NLHE 6-max: Awkward river card for an overpair.

J

Jonny03UK

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 23, 2012
Total posts
116
Chips
0
I think in terms of pre/flop/turn I played this fine and I'm happy with that part of the play but I'm kind of stuck on what to do on the river here. The river card made things really awkward for me and I just got really confused about it.

I'm contemplating either a bet/fold to a raise (and if I bet, how much?) or just checking behind. It's entirely possible the villain has a 7 or a 2 in his hand given his wide range and it's not at all impossible to put him on a flush as well. Obviously he checks the river which is showing a bit of weakness but maybe he was expecting me to bet so he can jam? Fish do weird things.

IPoker Network $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2147302
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: $10.03 - VPIP: 45, PFR: 15, 3B: 5, AF: 3.7, Hands: 115
UTG: $1.43 - VPIP: 53, PFR: 5, 3B: 4, AF: 0.9, hands: 112
MP: $15.62 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 18, 3B: 9, AF: 2.0, Hands: 113
CO: $10.50 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 15, 3B: 6, AF: 12.0, Hands: 117
Hero (BTN): $12.24 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 14, 3B: 4, AF: 2.4, Hands: 72540
SB: $14.01 - VPIP: 45, PFR: 15, 3B: 5, AF: 3.7, Hands: 115

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with K
club.gif
K
diamond.gif

3 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 1 fold, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65) J
spade.gif
7
heart.gif
7
spade.gif
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.48, BB calls $0.48

Turn: ($1.61) 2
diamond.gif
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.40, BB calls $1.40

River: ($4.41) 2
spade.gif
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero ??
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
Bet/fold. I'd make it about $3. He'd have to be a special sicko to bluff raise that board and he'll certainly call with worse.
 
Deco

Deco

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 7, 2009
Total posts
2,544
Chips
0
WVHillbilly said:
Bet/fold. I'd make it about $3. He'd have to be a special sicko to bluff raise that board and he'll certainly call with worse.
Click to expand...

Ditto, he'll have way more Jx than flushes. I can even see TT-88 calling.
 
R

rw11687

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
May 21, 2012
Total posts
312
Chips
0
Personally, I am probably just checking. The pots a good size and I would rather take it down then be forced to make a decision if he pushes. I think there are enough hands out there that beat you to play it safe and keep the pot small. That's just me though, perhaps I am too tentative in these situations.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
rw11687 said:
Personally, I am probably just checking. The pots a good size and I would rather take it down then be forced to make a decision if he pushes. I think there are enough hands out there that beat you to play it safe and keep the pot small. That's just me though, perhaps I am too tentative in these situations.
Click to expand...
If you're checking back rivers here you're missing value. Bet/fold is your friend. There is no decision to make if he shoves over a river bet. You fold knowing that he had the best hand.
 
M

MSINIWRAD

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 19, 2013
Total posts
80
Chips
0
WVHillbilly said:
If you're checking back rivers here you're missing value. Bet/fold is your friend. There is no decision to make if he shoves over a river bet. You fold knowing that he had the best hand.
Click to expand...
well said...no wonder you're from value town lol.
 
R

rw11687

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
May 21, 2012
Total posts
312
Chips
0
WVHillbilly said:
If you're checking back rivers here you're missing value. Bet/fold is your friend. There is no decision to make if he shoves over a river bet. You fold knowing that he had the best hand.
Click to expand...

Maybe, but you only get value if they call and they are beat. How many hands are likely to call (and not raise) a 3rd shot on this board? Let's look at hands that fit his line.

1. Jx - Really doubt AJ, KJ, and maybe even QJ are viable hands here. Would likely see a lead out beat or raise on the flop/turn with one of these hands, especially given the flush potential. So realistic hands w/ a J are J7?-JT. What do they think they are beating with this board and facing a 3rd bullet? This range calls 50% of the time at best IMO. But, there is value here.

2. Mid PP - IMHO this hand is not calling, they have to basically put you on a smaller PP or an outright bluff to call.

3. Flush - Makes the most sense in how it was played. Wanted to keep the pot small on the river in case hero did have the 7. But is most likely calling a pot size bet.

Of the hands that are only calling and not raising, we are beat more often than not IMO, making a river bet less valuable.

Checking removes the potential of putting dead money into the pot on a scary board. If they were slow playing it, you save $3 while getting to see the hand and assess how it was played. valuable info on the villain moving forward.

Betting gives you a chance to win a bigger pot, but also adds risk of losing more money. And given that most hands we beat are folding, I don't think it adds much value.

Now, I may be giving players at this level too much credit. If they are calling stations or unable to lay down top pair in a precarious situation, then maybe their calling range does include more hands that we beat. In this case, there is value in betting. But from my perspective, there is more risk than value here.

Would be interested in hearing a rebuttal to this point though - this type of discussion is how we all get better.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
rw11687 said:
Maybe, but you only get value if they call and they are beat. How many hands are likely to call (and not raise) a 3rd shot on this board? Let's look at hands that fit his line.

1. Jx - Really doubt AJ, KJ, and maybe even QJ are viable hands here. Would likely see a lead out beat or raise on the flop/turn with one of these hands, especially given the flush potential. So realistic hands w/ a J are J7?-JT. What do they think they are beating with this board and facing a 3rd bullet? This range calls 50% of the time at best IMO. But, there is value here.

2. Mid PP - IMHO this hand is not calling, they have to basically put you on a smaller PP or an outright bluff to call.

3. Flush - Makes the most sense in how it was played. Wanted to keep the pot small on the river in case hero did have the 7. But is most likely calling a pot size bet.

Of the hands that are only calling and not raising, we are beat more often than not IMO, making a river bet less valuable.

Checking removes the potential of putting dead money into the pot on a scary board. If they were slow playing it, you save $3 while getting to see the hand and assess how it was played. valuable info on the villain moving forward.

Betting gives you a chance to win a bigger pot, but also adds risk of losing more money. And given that most hands we beat are folding, I don't think it adds much value.

Now, I may be giving players at this level too much credit. If they are calling stations or unable to lay down top pair in a precarious situation, then maybe their calling range does include more hands that we beat. In this case, there is value in betting. But from my perspective, there is more risk than value here.

Would be interested in hearing a rebuttal to this point though - this type of discussion is how we all get better.
Click to expand...
Villain is calling with all of his Jx hands (and he has a lot of them) and likely some other pairs as well. In fact we beat WAY more hands that he calls with than we don't.

You're also putting too much of a premium on gaining information on how the villain played his hand imo. Villain is bad (45/15) and that's really all the information we need to know. We should be looking to get as much of his money as possible in any given hand because he's not likely to keep it very long.
 
R

rw11687

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
May 21, 2012
Total posts
312
Chips
0
Why do you assume they are calling with all Jx hands?

I don't use HUD's, so I admittedly don't have a strong grasp on the stats and how to interpret them. I typically play 1-2 tables so I rely on my reads and experience with the players. In these cases, the info does hold value, but I would not solely make a decision based on gaining info, its just an added benefit.
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
Villain calls $2.50 with any pair and very likely Ace-high hands on the river.
 
R

rw11687

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
May 21, 2012
Total posts
312
Chips
0
baudib1 said:
Villain calls $2.50 with any pair and very likely Ace-high hands on the river.
Click to expand...

A-high hands? Maybe I am giving players at these levels too much credit, but this is absurd in my mind. How would someone call a pre-flop raise OOP, and then 3 bullets with A high? I can't believe that. I play at 50 and 100NL and no one makes that play. I can't imagine 2 steps down is that awful.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
He'll call A high sometimes because he has 2pair with an Ace kicker.
 
R

rw11687

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
May 21, 2012
Total posts
312
Chips
0
I understand he has 2 pair, but so does everyone else. Facing 3 bullets, no way they call with that.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
Lol. How long you been playing? I'm on my other PC so no HH at hand at the moment but I got 3 streets (including a slight overbet shove on the river) against a guy with similar stats recently. My flopped top set vs his unimproved AK on a flush possible board.
 
R

rw11687

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
May 21, 2012
Total posts
312
Chips
0
Been playing for years, but the past few it has been intermittent. Maybe you guys are right about this, I don't see this play very often. But that doesn't mean it doesn't happen I guess.

BTW - what part of WV? I went to Fairmont State for a semester and my dads a WVU grad.
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
more likely to call 3 than 2, more likely to call at higher levels as well.
 
R

rw11687

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
May 21, 2012
Total posts
312
Chips
0
baudib1 said:
more likely to call 3 than 2, more likely to call at higher levels as well.
Click to expand...

I havent seen something that bad at the 50 and 100NL games I play, but I will have to take your word for it.
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
It's not bad if it's good. how many hands have you played at NL50 and 100?
 
R

rw11687

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
May 21, 2012
Total posts
312
Chips
0
baudib1 said:
It's not bad if it's good. how many hands have you played at NL50 and 100?
Click to expand...

Plenty. Of course its not a bad play if the hands good, the question is how often is it good?
 
Top