Originally Posted by WVHillbilly
If you're checking back rivers here you're missing value. Bet/fold is your friend. There is no decision to make if he shoves over a river bet. You fold knowing that he had the best hand.
Maybe, but you only get value if they call and they are beat. How many hands are likely to call (and not raise) a 3rd shot on this board? Let's look at hands that fit his line.
1. Jx - Really doubt AJ, KJ, and maybe even QJ are viable hands here. Would likely see a lead out beat or raise on the flop/turn with one of these hands, especially given the flush potential. So realistic hands w/ a J are J7?-JT. What do they think they are beating with this board and facing a 3rd bullet? This range calls 50% of the time at best IMO. But, there is value here.
2. Mid PP - IMHO this hand is not calling, they have to basically put you on a smaller PP or an outright bluff to call.
3. Flush - Makes the most sense in how it was played. Wanted to keep the pot small on the river in case hero did have the 7. But is most likely calling a pot size bet.
Of the hands that are only calling and not raising, we are beat more often than not IMO, making a river bet less valuable.
Checking removes the potential of putting dead money into the pot on a scary board. If they were slow playing it, you save $3 while getting to see the hand and assess how it was played. valuable info on the villain moving forward.
Betting gives you a chance to win a bigger pot, but also adds risk of losing more money. And given that most hands we beat are folding, I don't think it adds much value.
Now, I may be giving players at this level too much credit. If they are calling stations or unable to lay down top pair in a precarious situation, then maybe their calling range does include more hands that we beat. In this case, there is value in betting. But from my perspective, there is more risk than value here.
Would be interested in hearing a rebuttal to this point though - this type of discussion is how we all get better.