$10 NLHE 6-max: AQ vs turn raise

igySK

igySK

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58/10/5.4/126hands
ftcb 67% bet vs missed cbet IP 100%
he's probably got a 7 and it's a fold right? he would've called on turn with all worse hands. there is still the possibility that he would raise with a FD but we don't have the read that he's capable of playing like that


IPoker Network $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 2196558
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $3.02
BTN: $9.89
SB: $10.05
Hero (BB): $11.21
UTG: $3.33

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with Q
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A
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2 folds, BTN calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.50, BTN calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.05) 7
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7
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A
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(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.40, BTN calls $0.90

Turn: ($3.85) J
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(2 players)
Hero bets $2.70, BTN raises to $5.40, Hero folds
 
Deco

Deco

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I play it the same.

Really tempting to call the turn cuz of odds but we'd be pretty much committed at this point and we've no reason to believe he'd play a flush draw this way.
 
Deco

Deco

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Oh ye just noticed flop was check raised., thought we acted last.
This is a c-bet, you let so much Ax check back and we don't have a strong enough hand to checkraise imo as this guy will have loads of 7s in his range.

Was only really keen on raising a donk bet as he'd gone and sized it so small, betting makes this hand way easier on ourselves.
 
igySK

igySK

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bet vs missed cbet IP 100% and he actually folds to cbets so I think c/r on flop is the most EV+ move. He might even bet Ax hands, but yeah I might lose value if he checks back and then only calls 2 barrels instead of 3.
 
dooydoo

dooydoo

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on 126 hands that bet vs missed cbet was probably 1/1 times or something very low. I wouldnt rely on that stat til you have a much larger sample. Until then i would just play abc and cbet.
 
Deco

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Both those stats will likely not be converged. We'd exploit such a tendency by check calling our weaker aces and check raising our draws. Aq against a villain this bad is too valueable to risk checking.

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igySK

igySK

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well the sample was around 10 times so if he's got a hand he would bet with he's gonna call the c/r and if he's got air then he b/folds and there I get the extra money
 
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RamdeeBen

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I really hate the x/r on the flop. Like; why are you doing that?

When you x/r, you only ever rep AA/AJ+ so he folds everything we beat..

That said; when he flats though our x/r...and raises the turn..I think it's quite an easy fold unless he's a complete fish, he's not doing this without AJ/7x.
 
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kanselau

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also not a big fan of x/r flop for same reason as stated as above. Also really hate the way you played the turn . Your reping a preety strong hand on the flop (AA, A7+ , 77, ) and you still get called.
Why are you betting this turn ? Villain has already declared that he has a hand , so hes either got an Ax or FD ( witch you are ahead of ) , or has you totally crushed. So what you are doing esentialy is building a big pot , almost comiting yourself with a weak hand. check/call the turn for pot control.
What you did in this hand was built a big pot on the flop/turn invested half your stack and then folded . im never building a big pot with TPTK type hand in cash , this is not a hand you want to invest a whole buyin in.
 
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igySK

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against this guy playing 58/10 and he limp called, I'm betting 3 streets for value and if I get raised I fold, I think that's very standard. So if you know that he's always gonna bet if you check on flop and you've got a lot of FE on a flop like this, are you still gonna bet? Let's say he's got Ax and we cbet and he calls. However, if we check, he bets and we c/r he's gonna call with all worse aces and we get more value. Then, if we get raise we fold cos he's got a better hand.
 
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kanselau

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against this guy playing 58/10 and he limp called, I'm betting 3 streets for value and if I get raised I fold, I think that's very standard. So if you know that he's always gonna bet if you check on flop and you've got a lot of FE on a flop like this, are you still gonna bet? Let's say he's got Ax and we cbet and he calls. However, if we check, he bets and we c/r he's gonna call with all worse aces and we get more value. Then, if we get raise we fold cos he's got a better hand.

So every time this guy raises you , you fold? Preety exploitable .
You C/R , bet 3 streets and then fold with a SPR of >1. Bad Strategy
Invest half of your stack and then fold, because some fish rasises , what if hes raising you on the turn with A5, or a flush draw.
You seem to ignore the fact that TPTK type hands aren't strong enough to stack of a full buy in , and this is why you need to control the pot size .
There is no point in building the pot with C/R betting 3 streets then folding . If you decide that your going to play this hand strongly against whoever it might be and for what ever reason you think its EV+ to do so , take it all the way.
 
igySK

igySK

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well if I bet 3 streets I'm not stacking off for a full buy in. I don't have to worry that a fish playing 58/10 would exploit me. Do you really believe he would raise on turn with A5? I think it's possible that he would shove with a FD but I don't see him even doing that and for sure not minraising but it's most likely he would call on turn. Yes, I invest half of my stack and if he raises on turn or on flop vs my c/r (I suppose most of the time he's not bluffing) I just fold because he's gonna call with all worse hands.
 
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