$10 NLHE 6-max: another stupid spot with KK

poker stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players

Hero (BTN): $10.00 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 20, 3B: 6, AF: 3.9, Hands: 239970
SB: $8.00 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 14, 3B: 8, AF: 4.0, hands: 244
BB: $10.00 - VPIP: 31, PFR: 14, 3B: 0, AF: 3.7, Hands: 35
UTG: $30.91 - VPIP: 40, PFR: 23, 3B: 0, AF: 0.7, Hands: 35
MP: $10.00 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 6, 3B: 5, AF: 0.0, Hands: 33
CO: $11.92 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 16, 3B: 3, AF: 0.0, Hands: 182

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with
UTG raises to $0.30, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.70

Flop: ($2.15) (2 players)
UTG bets $1.20, Hero raises to $3, UTG raises to $29.91, Hero ???

Fold.
It is not a stupid spot. Playing good poker is not about winning everytime with KK. Sometimes it is about an easy fold when required. The board hits his range often so he can have from 2 pairs, sets, streights.

why did u raise when he bets anyway? its fold of course

donkysnake said:

why did u raise when he bets anyway? its fold of course

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So I just call? And if the turn brings a 6, 10, J or any heart and he fires a second barrel?

Ship... 40/23... lot's of pairs this kind of guy would be shipping with including draws, combo draws, etc... This guy is felting with TT-QQ guarantee. You've already committed 40% of your stack. No way you can fold once you raise. You should know why you are raising and what your plan is.

John A said:

Ship... 40/23... lot's of pairs this kind of guy would be shipping with including draws, combo draws, etc... This guy is felting with TT-QQ guarantee. You've already committed 40% of your stack. No way you can fold once you raise. You should know why you are raising and what your plan is.

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Yes he is fishy and yes I putted him on TT-QQ (because he just cold called) that is why I raised and I don't like to call on wet boards (he can have lots of draws)

its a 50% hand if u r a gambler go for if not wait for a better spot. it looks like aginst his range ur ahead 33% of the time and behind 33% and racing the other 33% looks like that to me he could have 77s to JJs, A10+ J10 or QJ suited thats his range.
that said and having 6$ behind in a pot of 15$ its a call u have to be right like 1out of 3times thats ok.

Well....If we apply the old and unreliable yeti theorem here....he is most likely semi-bluffing. But given that you already put in this much, can you really fold?

I prefer 3-bet shipping OTF I think youll be mostly getting it in with >%50 most of the time and shows slight +EV long term.

RodneyC86 said:

Well....If we apply the old and unreliable yeti theorem here....he is most likely semi-bluffing. But given that you already put in this much, can you really fold?

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Well wrong application anyway, that board is wet as hell lol.
You may well be slightly ahead but prepare to run into sets a lot though.

as played no way in hell you fold.

i would just call the flop, raising is borderline terrible/turning hand into a bluff.

well guys, I called and the idiot showed

remus_ny said:

well guys, I called and the idiot showed

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Genius!

So look at my post and ignore the pros. I read Jhon A post but I have only one objection. The guy is passive postflop. We do not consider that we are probabely beat when he shoves?

remus_ny said:

So I just call? And if the turn brings a 6, 10, J or any heart and he fires a second barrel?

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lol, u fold and instead of losing it all, u only loose minimum

UTG maybe is nuts low or high streight ,but this is not a bluff!

donkysnake said:

lol, u fold and instead of losing it all, u only loose minimum

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My point is: how do you know if he is bluffing or not?

remus_ny said:

My point is: how do you know if he is bluffing or not?

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He is passive postflop.Af 0.7/ He is definitely not bluffing that often. Even if he is spewing money preflop he plays fit or fold after.

remus_ny said:

My point is: how do you know if he is bluffing or not?

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A little surprised by all the answers here. I suspect it's mostly results oriented thinking, but maybe we can turn this into a learning thread. Why don't you guys assign a range of hands you think he can do this with, and then look at that equity versus what OP has to call. Find a range that is under the odds he's getting you think is realistic.

As a side note, he doesn't have the be bluffing. He could be doing this for what he thinks is value (again TT-QQ).

I guess I'll start it for you guys:

Ace Poker Drills Poker Equity Calculator
Board: 7s 8h 9h

Equity Win Tie Hand Range
37.7708% 36.4429% 1.3279% [ KdKh ]
62.2292% 60.9013% 1.3279% [ 66-QQ(100), 98s(100), 98o(100), JTs(100), JTo(100), AhQh(100), AhJh(100), 65s(100), AhTh(100) ]

I thought of a range. I mean it is the range that I think he could be calling a 3-bet with and after that shove.
77+,JTs,97s,87s,65s
Every other hand like draws or 9 high he will probabely call not shove.
We have 40% vs 60% equity.

In our example we need to put another 6 dollars to win 20. So we need to win at least 30% of the time. It looks like a correct call.
Thx Jhon.
I was not sure about the JJ and TT. But fish will shove these hands in this spot.

John A said:

I guess I'll start it for you guys:

Ace Poker Drills Poker Equity Calculator
Board: 7s 8h 9h

Equity Win Tie Hand Range
37.7708% 36.4429% 1.3279% [ KdKh ]
62.2292% 60.9013% 1.3279% [ 66-QQ(100), 98s(100), 98o(100), JTs(100), JTo(100), AhQh(100), AhJh(100), 65s(100), AhTh(100) ]

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Will he shove with a flush draw? He is no that aggressive postflop.
Will he call with ofsuited connectors?

swingro said:

Will he shove with a flush draw? He is no that aggressive postflop.
Will he call with ofsuited connectors?

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I'm only including premium draws, which is a little tight. AF takes a bit longer to normalize. 35 hands isn't going to be adequate enough to really know how aggressive this guy is. All we likely know is that he's loose if he's playing 40% of his hands.

Regardless, if you remove all the flush draws I listed, you're still going to have almost the same equity.

swingro said:

I thought of a range. I mean it is the range that I think he could be calling a 3-bet with and after that shove.
77+,JTs,97s,87s,65s
Every other hand like draws or 9 high he will probabely call not shove.
We have 40% vs 60% equity.

In our example we need to put another 6 dollars to win 20. So we need to win at least 30% of the time. It looks like a correct call.
Thx Jhon.
I was not sure about the JJ and TT. But fish will shove these hands in this spot.

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That's reasonable, but keep in mind you need to call $6 to win $12.35. So you need ~32%.

John A said:

That's reasonable, but keep in mind you need to call $6 to win $12.35. So you need ~32%.

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I forgot about the rake.