$10 NLHE 6-max: Another aa dry board should I continue bet to end

villian 20/15 very aggressive ag 5.3
How can I improve

CO: $10 (100 bb)
BTN: $7 (70 bb)
SB: $14.86 (148.6 bb)
BB: $24.19 (241.9 bb)
Hero (UTG): $10.32 (103.2 bb)
MP: $7.18 (71.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A A
Hero raises to $0.30, MP calls $0.30, CO calls $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.35) 9 4 2 (4 players)
Hero bets $0.67, MP calls $0.67, 2 folds

Turn: ($2.69) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.79, MP calls $1.79

River: ($6.27) T (2 players)
Hero bets $4.18, MP raises to $4.42 and is all-in, Hero calls $0.24

Results: $15.11 pot ($0.75 rake)
Final Board: 9 4 2 6 T
Hero showed A A and lost (-$7.18 net)
MP showed 4 4 and won $14.36 ($7.18 net)

Played fine really, i'd bet bigger on each street as you will it easier to get all in when your opponent has a full stack.

Standard.
Bit bigger on the flop for acky's reasons.

Worst case scenario villain has 4sets in the form of 99/44/22/TT and does not flat QQ preflop here. Even then JJ makes this a shove.
Sure there are 12 set combos to 6 JJ combos meaning we don't have the 50% equity needed to value bet. However the rule of needing 50% equity to value bet goes out the window once we cannot check/fold as is the case here.
Instead we compare whether to check/call or shove. Shoving is always better as the hands that beat us will always shove anyway, there is negligible air in villains range and shoving will gives worse hands a better chance to call (some worse hands may check back).

This is a worst case scenario which is rarely going to be true. I not only expect QQ but perhaps even 77-88 maybe even 9x or KK from time to time.

This is simply a hand where you and most other people, including me, are probably going to get stacked. I'd bet somewhat more on the flop, but so what? Villain will obviously call. If I come up with some reason to check the turn, he's going to bet, probably an amount that sets up a river shove. Can I really fold there? No, so I call. Then, whether I check or bet the river, he's going to shove. On paper, there's some chance that if I check, I'll find a fold when he shoves, but realistically, the chances of that happening at the table are quite slim.

Note that if your question means how could you have improved the result by losing less, it's the wrong question. The right one is if / how you could have made better decisions during the hand regardless of the result.

No I really do not care about lose. I just care about if I did it wrong. Now I feel better that I am right.

Arjonius said:

Note that if your question means how could you have improved the result by losing less, it's the wrong question. The right one is if / how you could have made better decisions during the hand regardless of the result.

Click to expand...

3 ways pot, all small board, your cbets gets called down twice, I think it is time to check river and reevaluate.

I understand he is aggressive but I don't think he is calling 2 streets to bluff you all in on riv, so I would check the riv and fold to a shove.

This is incredibly hard to do, I know, but at this level, and even 25nl they simply don't shove rivers unless they have it.

forsakenone said:

I understand he is aggressive but I don't think he is calling 2 streets to bluff you all in on riv, so I would check the riv and fold to a shove.

Click to expand...

Worse value can shove. In villains shoes I shove JJ and QQ all day here. Your then looking at calling $4 into a $10 in which you need to win 28.5% of the time to call.

I'd have 12 combos of sets here {99,44,22,TT} and 12 combos of overpair {JJ,QQ}. Vs me you would win 50% of the time here so calling would be better than folding. Shoving is better than both.

It looks like you tried to trap him a little by acting weak which was moot because he hit his "implied odds" set... This guy plays to hit these - you just have to have to HAVE to makem pay more to see flop. The next 10x he calls with weak pair he'll have to pay - and sometimes you may even hit your set - "WHAMMY!"....-Ron Bergundy style.

The way I bet flop small is just because if he will call this low dry board. I really have no idea if I bet bigger how he will call.Will it be profit in the long run.

LaserCats said:

It looks like you tried to trap him a little by acting weak which was moot because he hit his "implied odds" set... This guy plays to hit these - you just have to have to HAVE to makem pay more to see flop. The next 10x he calls with weak pair he'll have to pay - and sometimes you may even hit your set - "WHAMMY!"....-Ron Bergundy style.

Click to expand...

If he's calling half pot he's probably calling 90% of the pot, bet big and keep betting. checking at any point just seems terrible in this hand, just fat value everywhere.

Maybe I just think it in my shoe, For me the 1/2 and 2/3 shows different strong signal to me.

acky100 said:

If he's calling half pot he's probably calling 90% of the pot, bet big and keep betting. checking at any point just seems terrible in this hand, just fat value everywhere.

Click to expand...

Yeah you really need to get out of them shoes if you want to move up or increase your win rate, im not making it up, honestly. Its an enormous leak which has enormous impacts to your win rate.

Bet more on every street imo.

Fold pre-flop.

When your opponent is short in a situation like this, you're going to get it all-in every time and be happy about it. Berry berry happy.