$10 NLHE 6-max: AKo bet the turn or let go

M

micromoi

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SB: $23.53 (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 8.93, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 56)
Hero (BB): $10.53
UTG: $10.00 (VPIP: 15.48, PFR: 11.58, 3Bet Preflop: 5.22, Hands: 729)
UTG+1: $21.44 (VPIP: 17.31, PFR: 14.04, 3Bet Preflop: 7.54, Hands: 526)
MP: $7.54 (VPIP: 30.37, PFR: 15.56, 3Bet Preflop: 4.92, Hands: 136)
MP+1: $10.00 (VPIP: 15.09, PFR: 9.53, 3Bet Preflop: 2.60, Hands: 1,146)
MP+2: $10.00 (VPIP: 17.10, PFR: 12.71, 3Bet Preflop: 5.63, Hands: 1,842)
CO: $10.30 (VPIP: 23.20, PFR: 16.49, 3Bet Preflop: 4.92, Hands: 196)
BTN: $10.00 (VPIP: 16.35, PFR: 13.22, 3Bet Preflop: 3.14, Hands: 1,102)

SB posts SB $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has A:heart: K:spade:

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to $0.30, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.00, CO calls $0.70

Flop: ($2.05, 2 players) J:spade: T:diamond: 7:spade:
Hero bets $1.10, CO calls $1.10

Turn: ($4.25, 2 players) 5:spade:
Hero checks, CO bets $3.30
 
Romario2223

Romario2223

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Bet over 70% on the flop and bet fold on the turn
 
John A

John A

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Bet/fold the turn. You don't have a ton of FE, but you have some and you can get some Tx and other midpairs w/o spades that will fold a large % of the time.
 
alipalip

alipalip

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I think you should try a bet/fold. You get some EQ with the ♠. If you face with a rise just let it go.
 
R

roygor

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Thats way this hand is called "Big Slick"......very strong hand if you hit a A or K.

Very weak hand if you dont get anything.......

Unfortunately you did not catch A or K.
 
J

joe777

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You are showing weakness by not cbetting the turn.
 
P

pyrotheassassin

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I would check/fold this hand. It doesn't seem like you have enough equity to continue in relation to the bet size. Your breakeven point is 43%. In your best case, assuming Villian doesn't have flush or FD, 98, a Q, set, or two pair (JT), you have 19 outs (9 spades, 3 Ace, 3 Kings, and 4 Queens), or about 38% equity against J9. In order to call profitably, you have to believe Villian would bluff an additional 6% with a hand like AQ. This is your best case because it gives you the most outs, but more than likely if you improve, this hand will fold. If we add in some of those other hands, like the FD, you could have implied odds in your favor on the call, but you lose some outs at the same time, meaning your equity falls. I think the worst hand for you here would be AsJx, as you would have 13% equity.

In this spot, considering Villian did raise preflop, I would check and fold to a 75% pot bet on turn, as I can't see a 17% range not having at least a pair at this point. The range also probably does not enough hands willing to bluff on this board.

One thing that could help with this analysis is if you could post your stats. Is there reason to believe the Villian was making a play against you? What is the blind defense frequency for the SB and yourself?
 
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