$10 NLHE 6-max: AK on Kxx flop OOP vs 3 bet PF raiser

fletchdad

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Villain 22/15 AF 2,8 120 hands
UTG 23/16 AF 10.5 154 hands
He could easily have AA-JJ and AKs and o, although IMO AKo and JJ are flatting here. IDK if my thinking is off. I dont feel good getting it in pre vs this guy. Is this wrong view here? which makes me ask:
Is this a fold pre? Cause I honestly dont know what to do here....... I dont think he is a spew tard, and 3 bet is 4%, 120 hands not enough to say really but........

Party Poker - $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem (5 players)
Party Poker Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com

SB: $19.47
BB Hero: $10.95
UTG: $4.74
CO: $4.10
BTN: $12.80

Pre-flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB and dealt :kd4: :as4:
UTG raises to $0.30, 2 folds, SB raises to $1.20, Hero calls $1.10, UTG folds

Flop: ($2.70) :7c4: :ks4: :8c4: (2 players)
SB bets $1.93, Hero ,
 
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baudib1

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Calling pre is fine/good for deception. Call flop, what's the turn action.
 
c9h13no3

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I think I just fold pre, cuz you know, I'm a nit.
 
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Sori

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Now I'm relatively new to taking poker seriously, but I'm 3-betting preflop to about 2.25 and willing to shove if he 4-bets. Is this bad?


I'm also raising the flop here and getting value from draws.
 
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Sori

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ok...why is that? My thinking is that we are most likely ahead here (do you disagree with that?) and want to get value against flush or straight draws.

You are really only afraid of AA/KK and I don't think theres any reason to assume that this is most likely the case. Could we wrong but I think AA/KK may raise smaller, not wanting folds all around. Now he very well may have us crushed, but I don't think we should assume this.

Is there another reason not to raise flop, besides thinking that we aren't currently good?
 
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baudib1

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What flush draws does he have? AKcc, AQcc maybe, that's 1-2 combos and it's iffy that he 3-bets UTG with AQ.

If you raise, do you fold out better or get worse to call? The only thing you accomplish by raising the flop is to turn your hand into a bluff and get him to fold QQ.
 
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Sori

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I guess I am underestimating the villian. I was also considering KQs to be part of his range as well. I realize that isnt necessarily a good play to be raising KQ UTG, but I have seen it done many times. Granted, I play .03/.06 mostly, so the quality here is better. Thanks for clearing that up though, I definitely see your point and will probably get me to think about what my raises are actually accomplishing.
 
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baudib1

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Barring some metagame info that you failed to include, SB is fairly nitty in 3-betting and he's never going to be nittier than in SB vs. UTG, so KQ is probably not in his 3-bet range.

You're not underestimating him, if anything you are giving him too much credit for a balanced/wide range when in fact his range here is going to be damned narrow/depolarized.
 
JOEBOB69

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I guess I am underestimating the villian. I was also considering KQs to be part of his range as well. I realize that isnt necessarily a good play to be raising KQ UTG, but I have seen it done many times. Granted, I play .03/.06 mostly, so the quality here is better. Thanks for clearing that up though, I definitely see your point and will probably get me to think about what my raises are actually accomplishing.

Well OP said SB 3bet % was 4% that looks like 10 10+AQs+,AKo
Edit : and like baudib said he was 3betting the UTG raiser so it prob is tighter than that.
 
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Yea I didn't even see the 3bet% mentioned, just the first line of state. Thinking about it now I definitely agree with what you both are saying. However, I feel that looking too much into these PT stats with a small sample size, may actually negatively effect our judgement. Would you guys agree with that?


In the end though, yea I can see how flatting is way superior to raising.


flat>raise>fold or flat>fold>raise? (maybe a stupid question just trying to see HOW bad raising would be here, I think I may be raising in terrible situations and losing a lot of value on my made hands the more I think about it)
 
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baudib1

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tbh I'm mostly folding turn if he bombs it
 
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Sori

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So if the turn is a blank and he fires another 3/4 pot bet, you fold? So are you calling this flop hoping that he gives up on the turn? I have heard people say that people "tell the truth on the turn". Do you find this to be true in a lot of cases?


Say you call the flop, turn is blank, and villian checks. Now we have to bet, correct?
 
Cafeman

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tbh I'm mostly folding turn if he bombs it

That's what I was thinking.

I call flop and fold turn if he bets big. If turn is a brick and he checks, I might check back here to make/call a river bet, because he may well make/call one with JJ/QQ if we check back turn.
 
c9h13no3

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That's what I was thinking.

I call flop and fold turn if he bets big. If turn is a brick and he checks, I might check back here to make/call a river bet, because he may well make/call one with JJ/QQ if we check back turn.

If you flop TPTK in a 3-bet pot witk AK, and you still want to fold, you should've folded pre.
 
Cafeman

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If you flop TPTK in a 3-bet pot witk AK, and you still want to fold, you should've folded pre.

Vs any villain, any board texture and any bet size? But yes, tend to agree.
 
Deco

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I like the call pre, not doing it for deception though just that we have position and a hand strong enough to call given that villain 3bet vs a short stacked HJ and the 4% 3bet isn't enough to make me fold AK with position as it's far from converged although I do think his range is going to be pretty strong.

Once we hit a King I'm calling down. KK+ is all that beats us for a paltry 4combos. Lets say he shoves the turn we'll need around 35% equity to call:


Board: Ks 7c 8c 2d
Hand 0: 30.909% { AKo }
Hand 1: 69.091% { KK+, AKs, AKo }



We need to know this guy is never ever bluffing to even consider folding. Snap call turn! If we're beat consider yourself coolered.


If you flop TPTK in a 3-bet pot witk AK, and you still want to fold, you should've folded pre.

Ditto, depending on the state of 10NL I wouldn't fault a fold if someone 3betting light here is incredibly rare despite the HJ short stacked open
 
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baudib1

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Board: Ks 7c 8c 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.909% 01.36% 29.55% 54 1170.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 69.091% 39.55% 29.55% 1566 1170.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }



We need to know this guy is never ever bluffing to even consider folding. Snap call turn! If we're beat consider yourself coolered.


This looks like a snap-fold to me.
 
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baudib1

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One combo of bluff is enough to give us the 35% equity we need. We needs to catch a bluff <9% of the time here to see a profit.

The number of times this guy bluffs the turn is pretty close to 0 combos.
 
Deco

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Why? Is there a read you have on this guy I'm missing?

Villain c-betting air on the flop is pretty likely right? hence why were calling, it's not like QQ, KQ or a weaker value hand are going to be betting here very often. Given that is it such a stretch of the imagination to see this air barreling the turn? It's a big pot up for grabs, villain could think we're floating/ holding an underpair / is unsure of how to play his QQ so shoves/ is tilted/ has a weak-tight image of us/ thinks JTs is his lucky hand :D

Just because you wouldn't double barrel here doesn't mean villain won't, you do not have nearly a good enough read on him to decide he is never bluffing here.
 
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baudib1

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AF is low, 3-bet is low, this type of player doesn't DB air often at all (maybe never) in my experience.
 
Deco

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AF takes several over a thousand hands to converge at all. Over 120 hands it is useless to determine overall aggression never mind double barrelling tendencies.

The 3bet is also not fully converged. My 3bet% is 9%, countless times at a mere 100 hands I will see it at as little as 1%. Unlike the AF it isn't completely unusable but not to formulate a read as ground breaking as "This guy never double barrels air".
 
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baudib1

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sure, we have other information, namely that it's NL 10, which tends to be uber nitty even at 6-max, and he's 3-betting an UTG open from a non-maniac. His range of bluff is lolsmall and gets even smaller-to-nonexistent when he doubles this board.

If his range is KK+/AK it's not really a cooler if we call down and stack off in this spot. I mean, I might overplay AK more than anyone in the history of poker but in the cold light of day I don't like our chances of winning this hand when stacks go in.
 
Deco

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sure, we have other information, namely that it's NL 10, which tends to be uber nitty even at 6-max, and he's 3-betting an UTG open from a non-maniac. His range of bluff is lolsmall and gets even smaller-to-nonexistent when he doubles this board.

He is 3betting a short stack you know, but if what you say is the case and 10NL players will never be light preflop here and his range is rarely weaker than QQ+/AK we should fold pre.

We should not call pre with the plan of effectively floating a Kxx board, we may as well have air as weaker value is rarely c-betting.
 
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