$10 NLHE 6-max: AK 4bet pot, turn decision

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 41/36/1

Only have maybe 40 hands on V so take the stats with a grain of salt:

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem $0.1(BB)
SB ($10) [VPIP: 23.5% | PFR: 13.4% | AGG: 22.6% | Hands: 309]
BB ($35.46) [VPIP: 41.5% | PFR: 36.6% | AGG: 20% | Flop Agg: 25% | Turn Agg: 20% | River Agg: 0% | 3-Bet: 15.4% | Fold to 3-Bet: 66.7% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 41]
HERO ($12.47) [VPIP: 23.1% | PFR: 18.8% | AGG: 32.6% | Flop Agg: 43.6% | Turn Agg: 26% | River Agg: 16.9% | 3-Bet: 5% | 4-Bet: 9.3% | Fold to 4-Bet: 20% | Hands: 1897]
BTN ($10.67) [VPIP: 26.5% | PFR: 20.5% | AGG: 36.9% | Hands: 270]

Dealt to Hero: A♥ K♥

HERO Raises To $0.30, BTN Calls $0.30, SB Folds, BB Raises To $1.05, HERO Raises To $2.55, BTN Folds, BB Calls $1.50

Hero SPR on Flop: [1.82 effective]
Flop ($5.45): 9♥ 4♦ 5♦
BB Checks, HERO Bets $2.58 (Rem. Stack: $7.34), BB Calls $2.58 (Rem. Stack: $30.33)

Turn ($10.61): 9♥ 4♦ 5♦ J♠
BB Checks, HERO ?

My initial reaction is to shove here but I don't think there's a chance he's folding anything better JJ+, AK, so should I just check and pray for an A or K?

bgomez89 said:

My initial reaction is to shove here but I don't think there's a chance he's folding anything better JJ+, AK, so should I just check and pray for an A or K?

Click to expand...

Yes I think so. At this point he most likely has a pair, and he is unlikely to be folding it. Even TT will most likely stack off an a safe board like this.

I think I agree with fund here. You do have the range advantage from preflop action, but based on his play, I think 99- even QQ are a solid part of his range here. And none of that is folding to a turn shove.