$10 NLHE 6-max: AK 4bet

igySK

igySK

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23/19/3.4/192hands
3bet 3.3, flop cbet 47



IPoker Network $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2205668
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP: $10.00
CO: $10.00
BTN: $4.50
SB: $6.82
BB: $10.30
Hero (UTG): $10.15

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG with A
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K
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Hero raises to $0.30, MP raises to $1, 4 folds, Hero raises to $2, MP calls $1

Flop: ($4.15) 3
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5
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6
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(2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $2.40, Hero folds
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Can I fold? Is folding pre too nitty? This guy is always going for value and we don't have the 3-bet rate to 4-bet profitably here.

I think I just fold : /
 
acky100

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Flop fold is the only play if you get to the flop

In theory 4bet or fold pre is good but to be honest, 4bet bluffing probably really bad vs most villains, especially ones like this who are 3betting 3% and especially (probably less in this spot!!!) + people don't do a lot of polarising in position at nl10

So i'd call or fold pre. If he doesn't cbet a lot calling pre cause in my database when i call AK oop i lose less than 3bb/hand which is what we lose when we fold to the 3bet. But either way calling pre isnt our path to riches, and i'd just be a nit and fold to the 3bet quite happily also, especially if i was playing a lot of tables or something as like i stated, calling oop is only going to be marginally better than folding at best.
 
MiamiMadePunk

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You didn't hit anything and your out of position so it's an easy fold.
 
Yoshimiii

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Your 4 bet sizing is too small, if you're OOP make it 2.5x
 
acky100

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Your 4 bet sizing is too small, if you're OOP make it 2.5x

Disagree, smaller is better with our whole range if we want a 4bet bluff and 4bet value dynamic, my standard would be 20bb-22bb tops vs a 10bb raise, raising 25bb just makes our opponents decisions a lot easier and we risk more when we are bluffing when 20-22 does the same job. Like i suggested though, 4betting in this spot is probably a mistake to begin with vs a lot of 10nl regs here.
 
Jblocher1

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Easy fold pre flop

Wait fold pre? I'm never folding pre here. AK is a monster. I fold the flop unless I feel like getting really crafty. If u have a solid read it can sometimes pay to re raise 2/3 pot here and get him off a couple face cards like QK/JK you can represent a monster over pair like queens or kings I suppose. If ur not in the mood to risk a lot of money, Judy lay it down when he gets the flop. But NEVER fold pre here, unless u are absolutely certain he has kings or aces
 
Deco

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Im folding pre. I need villain to be 3betting at least 5% or so from MP to get it in he's not even 3betting that much all round.
 
Deco

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Wait fold pre? I'm never folding pre here. AK is a monster. I fold the flop unless I feel like getting really crafty. If u have a solid read it can sometimes pay to re raise 2/3 pot here and get him off a couple face cards like QK/JK you can represent a monster over pair like queens or kings I suppose. If ur not in the mood to risk a lot of money, Judy lay it down when he gets the flop. But NEVER fold pre here, unless u are absolutely certain he has kings or aces

{AK, QQ+} we're a 40% underdog to, rarely have the initiative when continuing and are out of position. If villain flats AK, QQ we're against {KK+} where we're a huge dog.

If villain is unlikely to be 3bet bluffing from MP this is a fold.
 
dooydoo

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AK is not a monster and is the most overvalued hand in poker. There are many times where folding it pre is the best play.

Just for fun run some filters where AK=true, all in pre = true, and stacks are >70bb.

AK=true, was 3b=true, called 3b=true
 
Aleksei

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Why fold? The only made hand here is 2-4 and if Villain called a 4-bet with that he's just reeeeeally bad and that's a cooler. Most likely he'll have two broadways, OPs (most of which you will crush if you hit), some FDs and like 78s or A4s (if he's bad) or something sometimes.

Like, what? He bet half pot and you have two overs. You just need to be good 1/4 of the time and a half-pot bet by anyone decent contains a brutally large amount of air.

That said personally I like minraising here pre and probably flatting the 3bet. Makes my price of drawing TPTK cheaper plus making him show a wider range, plus the pot is pretty built with a 3bet already so getting a lot of money when I hit isn't that hard.
 
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Yoshimiii

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Why fold? The only made hand here is 2-4 and if Villain called a 4-bet with that he's just reeeeeally bad and that's a cooler. Most likely he'll have two broadways, OPs (most of which you will crush if you hit), some FDs and like 78s or A4s (if he's bad) or something sometimes.

Like, what? He bet half pot and you have two overs. You just need to be good 1/4 of the time and a half-pot bet by anyone decent contains a brutally large amount of air.

That said personally I like minraising here pre and probably flatting the 3bet. Makes my price of drawing TPTK cheaper plus making him show a wider range, plus the pot is pretty built with a 3bet already so getting a lot of money when I hit isn't that hard.

You need to be good 1/4 of the time? No that's incorrect, you're forgetting that villain can barrel the turn/river as well with his flush draws or overcards.
Calling the flop to float or because you think A high is good is so so so so so bad here. Also we block so many brodway cards that the villain can have that 3 bets us and then calls a 4 bet. This looks to me like he has 10/10 or JJ. The villain has so few 'Air' type hands here, even his flush draws have more equity than use here as he can bluff us easily and he has position and has clear outs.

Also I don't even understand what you mean in that last paragraph, drawing to TPTK is what fish do. The villain doesn't have a wide range, it's very polarized here...
 
Aleksei

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You need to be good 1/4 of the time? No that's incorrect, you're forgetting that villain can barrel the turn/river as well with his flush draws or overcards.
Calling the flop to float or because you think A high is good is so so so so so bad here. Also we block so many brodway cards that the villain can have that 3 bets us and then calls a 4 bet. This looks to me like he has 10/10 or JJ. The villain has so few 'Air' type hands here, even his flush draws have more equity than use here as he can bluff us easily and he has position and has clear outs.
His flush draws don't have significantly more equity than us, actually. Many (likely most) of them will be Axs/Kxs type hands that we dominate, and the rest are undercards to our AK, vs which we're about a 45% dog. And we have the advantage here that Villain has a clearly defined range, such as that literally the only turn cards that can scare us are clubs.

Plus we have to consider how many made hands are really in Villain's range here. He half-pot it after all -- if he's any good he'll know he has to protect his PPs and thus bet bigger with them to deny a FD odds to draw. Sets are safer since you'll have 10 outs to the river vs a turned flush.

So, if he's the type to flat baby PPs vs a 4bet and half-pot TT+ (in which case he's pretty bad and we can get value from him in later hands with the info from this one), then we have about 26% equity going to the turn, and then the same going to the river if a club misses, plus we crush his range if we hit one of our own outs. If he's not flatting baby PPs but will take this line with TT+ we have 31% equity otf and then 28% equity on a Broadway turn. If he won't take this like with TT+ either (which is the smart thing to do), then we're exclusively up against draws and whatever air he deems fit to bluff here (I'm guessing SBs/SAs/AKo/Heart suited Broadways that miss the board), and we have 45-49% equity depending on how wide his air range is.

So, I peel turn and reevaluate. Most turn cards are nonthreatening anyway and don't change my equity from the flop. If he bombs a Broadway turn I might fold (and always give up when a club comes off), but if the turn misses a club and he barrels like 3/4 pot or less I'll probably raise as a semibluff, since I have decent equity and he'll probably fold to aggression often after missing his turn draw. Hell vs his range I'm actually probably okay peeling river vs anything less than a pot-sized bet.
 
Yoshimiii

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His flush draws don't have significantly more equity than us, actually.

1- Yes, if the cards were face up, however are you calling two streets with A high because you think villain is on a flush draw?

Many (likely most) of them will be Axs/Kxs type hands that we dominate, and the rest are undercards to our AK, vs which we're about a 45% dog. And we have the advantage here that Villain has a clearly defined range, such as that literally the only turn cards that can scare us are clubs.

2- So a TAG is 3 betting Axs/Kxs type hands vs the HERO who is UTG and then calling a 4 bet? No. The only possible hand that may do this is AQ and even then most regs would rather call a UTG raise with it than 3 bet.

Plus we have to consider how many made hands are really in Villain's range here. He half-pot it after all -- if he's any good he'll know he has to protect his PPs and thus bet bigger with them to deny a FD odds to draw. Sets are safer since you'll have 10 outs to the river vs a turned flush.

3- So what if he half pots it? This isn't a dead read that he is weak. His most likely holding is a pocket pair from 1010-QQ, with flush draws + overcards that won't fold to a shove anyway. Moreover the villain knows that the HERO can't have hit this board in a 4 bet pot and when he checks the flop it's unlikely he has a big pair so he can just bet half pot to try and protect/get value, he doesn't have to bet any bigger on the flop, he is already giving a bad price for the few flush draws that HERO may have if villain also bets river. Also it's much more likely that people in this spot would check-raise than check-call a flush draw + overcards OOP in a 3bet pot. Also, there still aren't many flush draws in his range at all. If you think villain can actually fold his 1010-QQ then check-raising is better than check-calling, but even then it doesn't look believable.

So, if he's the type to flat baby PPs vs a 4bet and half-pot TT+ (in which case he's pretty bad and we can get value from him in later hands with the info from this one), then we have about 26% equity going to the turn, and then the same going to the river if a club misses, plus we crush his range if we hit one of our own outs. If he's not flatting baby PPs but will take this line with TT+ we have 31% equity otf and then 28% equity on a Broadway turn. If he won't take this like with TT+ either (which is the smart thing to do), then we're exclusively up against draws and whatever air he deems fit to bluff here (I'm guessing SBs/SAs/AKo/Heart suited Broadways that miss the board), and we have 45-49% equity depending on how wide his air range is.

4- Again calling down bets with A high is awful at 10nl, we aren't pro's, there is no justification, he most likely isn't 3 betting baby Pocket pairs vs an UTG raise...

So, I peel turn and reevaluate. Most turn cards are nonthreatening anyway and don't change my equity from the flop. If he bombs a Broadway turn I might fold (and always give up when a club comes off), but if the turn misses a club and he barrels like 3/4 pot or less I'll probably raise as a semibluff, since I have decent equity and he'll probably fold to aggression often after missing his turn draw. Hell vs his range I'm actually probably okay peeling river vs anything less than a pot-sized bet.

5- Semi-bluffing any turn after he bets flop/turn is even worse here. You have no fold equity what so ever and like I said before, his range isn't weak at all, it's likely flush draws + overs/ 1010-QQ (most likely holding).

Also his cbet is 47%... It looks so obviously like a big pocket pair here...
 
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