Originally Posted by Yoshimiii
You need to be good 1/4 of the time? No that's incorrect, you're forgetting that villain can barrel the turn/river as well with his flush draws or overcards.
Calling the flop to float or because you think A high is good is so so so so so bad here. Also we block so many brodway cards that the villain can have that 3 bets us and then calls a 4 bet. This looks to me like he has 10/10 or JJ. The villain has so few 'Air' type hands here, even his flush draws have more equity than use here as he can bluff us easily and he has position and has clear outs.
His flush draws don't have significantly more equity than us, actually. Many (likely most) of them will be Axs/Kxs type hands that we dominate, and the rest are undercards to our AK, vs which we're about a 45% dog. And we have the advantage here that Villain has a clearly defined range, such as that literally the only turn cards that can scare us are clubs.
Plus we have to consider how many made hands are really
in Villain's range here. He half-pot it after all -- if he's any good he'll know he has to protect his PPs and thus bet bigger with them to deny a FD odds
to draw. Sets are safer since you'll have 10 outs to the river vs a turned flush.
he's the type to flat baby PPs vs a 4bet and half-pot TT+ (in which case he's pretty bad and we can get value from him in later hands with the info from this one), then we have about 26% equity going to the turn, and then the same going to the river if a club misses, plus we crush his range if we hit one of our own outs. If he's not flatting baby PPs but will take this line with TT+ we have 31% equity otf and then 28% equity on a Broadway turn. If he won't take this like with TT+ either (which is the smart thing to do), then we're exclusively up against draws and whatever air he deems fit to bluff here (I'm guessing SBs/SAs/AKo/Heart suited Broadways that miss the board), and we have 45-49% equity depending on how wide his air range is.
So, I peel turn and reevaluate. Most turn cards are nonthreatening anyway and don't change my equity from the flop. If he bombs a Broadway turn I might fold (and always give up when a club comes off), but if the turn misses a club and he barrels like 3/4 pot or less I'll probably raise as a semibluff, since I have decent equity and he'll probably fold to aggression often after missing his turn draw. Hell vs his range I'm actually probably okay peeling river vs anything less than a pot-sized bet.