$10 NLHE 6-max: Aggressive line, any major mistakes ?

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razzor94

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 29/22/2

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $19.58 (195.8 bb)
Hero (BB): $26.86 (268.6 bb)
UTG: $10.53 (105.3 bb)
MP: $10.15 (101.5 bb)
CO: $10.91 (109.1 bb)
BTN: $15.34 (153.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8
heart4.gif
7
heart4.gif

2 folds, CO raises to $0.30, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65) T
club4.gif
J
heart4.gif
4
heart4.gif
(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.47, Hero raises to $1.73, CO calls $1.26

Turn: ($4.11) 5
club4.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $2.70, CO raises to $8.88 and is all-in, Hero calls $6.18

River: ($21.87) 5
diamond4.gif
(2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: $21.87 pot ($0.98 rake)
Final Board: T
club4.gif
J
heart4.gif
4
heart4.gif
5
club4.gif

61 hands on him. Cbet is 100% but its just 2/2. Steal is 50%- 5/10.
 
P

pietpikel

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 29/22/2

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $19.58 (195.8 bb)
Hero (BB): $26.86 (268.6 bb)
UTG: $10.53 (105.3 bb)
MP: $10.15 (101.5 bb)
CO: $10.91 (109.1 bb)
BTN: $15.34 (153.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8
heart4.gif
7
heart4.gif

2 folds, CO raises to $0.30, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65) T
club4.gif
J
heart4.gif
4
heart4.gif
(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.47, Hero raises to $1.73, CO calls $1.26

Turn: ($4.11) 5
club4.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $2.70, CO raises to $8.88 and is all-in, Hero calls $6.18

River: ($21.87) 5
diamond4.gif
(2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: $21.87 pot ($0.98 rake)
Final Board: T
club4.gif
J
heart4.gif
4
heart4.gif
5
club4.gif

61 hands on him. Cbet is 100% but its just 2/2. Steal is 50%- 5/10.
AH, its a little unlucky, You have a monster. A heart probably wins, a 9 will win and so will a 6.

I think you could take a sightly different approach on flop. You don't learn much by check / calling. What will happen if you lead out ? Probably be better off betting, than calling because it might act as a stopper.

The turn gives you so many outs that your money is going in regardless, hard to get away here.

My feeling is that he has JJ or QQ
 
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razzor94

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AH, its a little unlucky, You have a monster. A heart probably wins, a 9 will win and so will a 6.

I think you could take a sightly different approach on flop. You don't learn much by check / calling. What will happen if you lead out ? Probably be better off betting, than calling because it might act as a stopper.

The turn gives you so many outs that your money is going in regardless, hard to get away here.

My feeling is that he has JJ or QQ

Well the big part in my line took the fact that he steals 50% of the time.
On the flop, even though i have a lot of equity i try to think of my hand as a bluff, which it is still at this point. I would like folds on the flop so i am counting on my fold equity more so than that he calls. The turn was the same, except the fact that his range is much stronger on the turn.
But i think AJ,AT,KJ,KT,QJ,QT with harts are now folding and also KQ(except KhQh) which is a lot of hands in comperison to TT+ and JT.
 
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braveslice

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This is more a style issue, but imo 87s would be better to 3bet or fold. It has no top pair value so only time you win is through monster also villain seem not to have large holes in his play, thus hoping to stack him 8 high flush is quite unlikely. TJs could be call?!?

Edit: book says, 87s is fold, so is T9s. But well that doesen't mean they can't be 3betted against wide stealer.

After turn it doesn’t matter anymore (most likely, too lazy to figure it out).
 
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razzor94

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This is more a style issue, but imo 87s would be better to 3bet or fold. It has no top pair value so only time you win is through monster also villain seem not to have large holes in his play, thus hoping to stack him 8 high flush is quite unlikely. TJs could be call?!?

After turn it doesn’t matter anymore (most likely, too lazy to figure it out).

3betting pre is certainly an option. One i prefer for the most part. But it so happens i decided to flat call. Most likely because of the lack of info.
But still i am not looking to stack him just yet. I am looking for folds for the most part during this hand.
 
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braveslice

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3betting pre is certainly an option. One i prefer for the most part. But it so happens i decided to flat call. Most likely because of the lack of info.
But still i am not looking to stack him just yet. I am looking for folds for the most part during this hand.

I see 100% right to raise flop CB, but OTT it gets too complicated to me.
 
Alucard

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I don't like the aggressive line with flush draws tbh. I like them played passively considering the odds I'm getting & the board texture.
What happens when you take that kind of line is you are blasting away all the equity you had and gambling on the board completing the flush.
Still if the board pairs, you are vulnerable.

I'd 3 bet pre, and likely check call check call flop & turn. If there was a open ended draw as well, would lead both streets. Still might lead the flop.
 
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AlexTheOwl

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Against a frequent stealer, who is not a maniac, 3-betting is usually the best defense. But calling and then 3-betting a c-bet is also a reasonable play, especially if you have 3-bet the villain pre-flop recently.

I would have given up the semi-bluff on the turn. The turn card isn't scary for the villain, and he's already established that he probably has a decent hand that he doesn't want to fold. You have some equity, and bluffing isn't working.
As played, you have the equity to call the 3-bet.

A big factor in how successful this line will be is your table image. If villain is likely to see you as tight, I like the play until the turn.
 
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I very rarely donk but I'm thinking that leading here would be a good play as he won't respect the bet most likely and you have a hand good enough to shove over on the flop if he raises, which looks super strong and probably take the pot down more often. High variance but you have equity if called. Just thinking...
 
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razzor94

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I very rarely donk but I'm thinking that leading here would be a good play as he won't respect the bet most likely and you have a hand good enough to shove over on the flop if he raises, which looks super strong and probably take the pot down more often. High variance but you have equity if called. Just thinking...

I dont donk either but its ot a bad idea. I would probably have to balance it out with some sets and 2 pair as well. I will try it out.
 
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braveslice

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Why do you guys think donk betting is better than check raising? He will think we protect with top pair+ against draws?

AlexTheOwl said what I meant, about 3betting and second best raising.
 
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razzor94

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I didnt say but the guy had KQ of clubs so i guess braveslice against this kind of player i want to be the one who has fold equity when shoving.
Lets say i lead he raises and i 3bet all in.
Also we can maybe give ourselfs a better price when donking the flop and the turn.
I cant say its better but its something worth trying.
 
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bloodviper1s

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Taking the hand through flopzilla:

Given stats i assigned a 25% open range taking into account his PFR and Steal %.
This looks like: AA-22,AKo-A9o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo-J9o,T9o,AKs-A4s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s.

Given that range, before any flop action, it is an exact coin flip between your hand and his range.
Assuming on this board he C-Bets 100% of his range, after you check raise him ~3.5x hes probably only calling with (Combo) Draws, and TPTK+.

On this turn before any action his range looks like: AA-TT,44,AJo,KQo,JTo,AJs,KQs,Q9s,JTs,98s,AhKh,AhQh,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah6h,Ah5h,KhTh,Kh9h,QhTh,Th9h,6h5h

His hand is 100% better than yours on this turn(According to Flopzilla), however you still have 32% equity. You're looking to check call almost any bet less than pot. Folding to an overbet.

As played with the bet/shove, you have a 3-4% equity edge (32% to 28%) to call, but you will be behind.

Based off of VPIP/PFR, i would guess hes a tag. Given he has position and you have a more implied odds hand, i would have played more passive hoping to hit a strait or flush for a nice donk bet or c/r by the River(or turn if you had happened to hit there).
 
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razzor94

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Taking the hand through flopzilla:

Given stats i assigned a 25% open range taking into account his PFR and Steal %.
This looks like: AA-22,AKo-A9o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo-J9o,T9o,AKs-A4s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s.

Given that range, before any flop action, it is an exact coin flip between your hand and his range.
Assuming on this board he C-Bets 100% of his range, after you check raise him ~3.5x hes probably only calling with (Combo) Draws, and TPTK+.

On this turn before any action his range looks like: AA-TT,44,AJo,KQo,JTo,AJs,KQs,Q9s,JTs,98s,AhKh,AhQh,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah6h,Ah5h,KhTh,Kh9h,QhTh,Th9h,6h5h

His hand is 100% better than yours on this turn(According to Flopzilla), however you still have 32% equity. You're looking to check call almost any bet less than pot. Folding to an overbet.

As played with the bet/shove, you have a 3-4% equity edge (32% to 28%) to call, but you will be behind.

Based off of VPIP/PFR, i would guess hes a tag. Given he has position and you have a more implied odds hand, i would have played more passive hoping to hit a strait or flush for a nice donk bet or c/r by the River(or turn if you had happened to hit there).

I always appreciate a good break down of a hand. Thanks man.
Now that i look at it that turn is not much of a scare card for him. I should have checked and try to realize my equity. Against a tighter opponent i would like that bet on the turn a little bit more. Or maybe against a player that doesnt go to SD too much or someone who floats flops and gives up on turn or river.

There is another equation you can use that i have forgotten about.
-Risk/reward equation.
It goes Risk(amount we are betting) divided by Risk + Reward(current pot) to decide how much does villain have to fold in order for our bet to be +EV.
So 2.7/6.8. Villain must fold 40% to breakeven. Now that you gave me his range on the turn i ask myself does he fold 40% of that range.
Probably not.
That is why i would like a turn bet on that turn card against a different type of opponent.
 
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bloodviper1s

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I always appreciate a good break down of a hand. Thanks man.

Now that i look at it that turn is not much of a scare card for him. I should have checked and try to realize my equity. Against a tighter opponent i would like that bet on the turn a little bit more. Or maybe against a player that doesnt go to SD too much or someone who floats flops and gives up on turn or river.



There is another equation you can use that i have forgotten about.

-Risk/reward equation.

It goes Risk(amount we are betting) divided by Risk + Reward(current pot) to decide how much does villain have to fold in order for our bet to be +EV.

So 2.7/6.8. Villain must fold 40% to breakeven. Now that you gave me his range on the turn i ask myself does he fold 40% of that range.

Probably not.

That is why i would like a turn bet on that turn card against a different type of opponent.



Ah yes of course, I can add that to my future break downs if necessary. I'm glad you liked the breakdown. I'm fairly new and by breaking down other people's hands how I see it with flopzilla will help me make better decisions in the long run.
 
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braveslice

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I cant say its better but its something worth trying.


It would be nice to know how to know when to donk. Donking is valid because a) John said so b) Today Evaner donked something like x6Ar flop with AK. Funnily enough he lost his stack for that. Flop DB/C [TURN] C [RIVER] C and villain had A6. He called villain total fish, because only hand he could call flop raise is AK, but hmm I just wonder if that is true and he can lay down something like AQ on that spot when villain is marked as a fish. Maybe he would not donk AQ.

But I also know that Dough used to donk, but not anymore because he said that balancing it was too much work.
 
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razzor94

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But I also know that Dough used to donk, but not anymore because he said that balancing it was too much work.

Totally agree. I like donking in a limped pot when i am in he blinds i flopped something big against a fish. In that spot i dont need to worry about balancing.
 
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Informative thread.
Personally I'd fold it Pre in the blinds but call it in position.
I like the flop check raise with the weaker flush draw. When you call with this hand it should be in the knowledge that you are going to have to bluff most of the time to win the hand. Also you want to take it down on the flop if you can here as you only have 8 high.
I'd check call stronger flush draws as I don't want to get forced into folding or calling it off behind because I've raised.
As played I'd fold to the turn shove I'm certainly well behind but the main reason for the fold is that my flush draw is so weak and there will be a good amount of times when I get out flushed. Id call it off if I had the nut flush draw so I knew nearly all my outs were good.
 
TheBigFinn

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You have a middle suited connector in in the BB. I don't mind the call pre-flop, but you have to hit 78s pretty hard on the flop to continue. One the flop you have a flush draw plus a 3 9s for an inside straight draw, 12 outs. If you can get it in on the flop you have a coin flip.

I like the check and you can expect Villain to C-bet. The question is, "Is it better to 3-bet or call?" if you call and hit your hand will be pretty face up. Likely to only get one more bet. Your check raise on the other folds out Villain's buffs and weaker hands. When he calls, he is telling you his hand is strong. the 5 gives you 3 more outs with one card to come.

15 outs, makes you a 30/70 dog with $4.11 in the pot with Villain's $8.88 stack left. This is where I lose you. You have turned you hand into a bluff betting $2.70. You definitively push out any Villain's remaining bluffs or draws but very few hands you are beating. When Villain pushes you know he is ahead, so your outs are the only way to win. There is $9.51 in the pot and you need to call $6.18 as a 30/70 dog. You don't have the odds to call.

IMHO, the better line is to check and see how much he bets. Calling a 40% pot bet might be justified, but you have to fold anything bigger.
 
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AlexTheOwl

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There is $9.51 in the pot and you need to call $6.18 as a 30/70 dog. You don't have the odds to call.

Thoughtful post, but I think there is a math error.

"Turn: ($4.11) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.70, CO raises to $8.88 and is all-in, Hero calls $6.18"

$4.11 + $2.70 + $8.88 = $15.69 in the pot and you need to call $6.18.

6.18 / (15.69+6.18) = 28%. Hero has about 30% equity, so this is a call.
 
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Supmargy

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Thoughtful post, but I think there is a math error.

"Turn: ($4.11) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.70, CO raises to $8.88 and is all-in, Hero calls $6.18"

$4.11 + $2.70 + $8.88 = $15.69 in the pot and you need to call $6.18.

6.18 / (15.69+6.18) = 28%. Hero has about 30% equity, so this is a call.
Hey! Im not sure how to calculate this if you consider rake. Is it still a call then?
 
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AlexTheOwl

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Hey! Im not sure how to calculate this if you consider rake. Is it still a call then?

Good question. I never think about the rake in these calculations, but let's try. All of the figures for pot sizes in the posted hand are pre-rake.

"$21.87 pot ($0.98 rake)"

So it looks like a (.98 / 21.87) = 4.5% rake.

Above we said:

"6.18 / (15.69+6.18) = 28%"

6.18 / (15.69 + 6.18) = 6.18 / 21.87.

Let's stop here and take the rake out of the potential $21.87 pot.

21.87 * (1-.045) = 21.87 * .955 = $20.89 "real" pot after rake.

So hero needs to call $6.18 to win a real pot of only $20.89.

6.18 / 20.89 = 30% pot odds.

bloodviper's Flopzilla analysis estimates hero has 32% equity. TheBigFinn estimates 30% equity. So we are right on the edge of profitability here.

There may also be rakeback involved, so the real rake may not be 4.5%, since some of it might be refunded to the hero.

In real time at the tables I'm taking a quick estimate of pot odds and equity, and the rake is too small to matter. But in these marginal cases it can make a difference.
 
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Supmargy

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Thanks for writing this down! Its not an insignificant difference!
 
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