$10 NLHE 6-max: AA vs Reg - Called on Flop and Turn - River ?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 19/16/3

Advice on river please after getting called on flop and turn?

888 Poker - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 65.8 BB (VPIP: 40.21, PFR: 37.11, 3Bet Preflop: 19.44, hands: 102)
CO: 116.2 BB (VPIP: 14.81, PFR: 3.70, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)
BTN: 122.6 BB (VPIP: 18.92, PFR: 16.22, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 75)
Hero (SB): 138.2 BB
BB: 119.3 BB (VPIP: 24.32, PFR: 18.92, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 38)
UTG: 40 BB (VPIP: 8.82, PFR: 2.94, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 34)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:heart: A:diamond:

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.2 BB, Hero raises to 8.6 BB, fold, BTN calls 6.4 BB

Flop: (18.2 BB, 2 players) 8:spade: K:diamond: T:diamond:
Hero bets 14.6 BB, BTN calls 14.6 BB

Turn: (47.4 BB, 2 players) 6:spade:
Hero bets 33.5 BB, BTN calls 33.5 BB

River: (114.4 BB, 2 players) 3:spade:

Hero?

Check call if ur worried.

Table image and villain dependant whether we get 3rd street of value

I would bet/fold on the river. You're still beating a large amount of his range when he calls twice, and this run-out really shouldn't have helped him at all.

Yeh but by checking we induce bluffs where we wouldnt get the call generally

How often is villain bluffing river if checked too after the strength we have shown? A lot of draws missed but it would be a terrible spot for villain to bluff. Not to mention the fact that he only has a half pot bet left. What hands that are worse then ours that bet for value on the river? Probably none? KQ going for super thin value maybe? What hands are calling that we beat if we bet? KQ, KJs, random 10x making a bad hero call? Pretty tough spot and I love inducing bluffs but I'm not sure if villain is bluffing here often so I probably just bet and see if he makes a calling mistake with weak hands. Lets not forget it is Btn v B so villain should make thinner calls on river and probably checks back all of his showdown hands.

With 66 BBs behind, I think it is a jam and we can't possibly think of bet folding here.

VALUE JAM LOLOLOL (not close)

^ Agree

Jam ainec

You'll occasionally run into a broadway hand that backdoored the flush but most of the time he has 1P hands.

Just play your game and style dont overthink each win or loss,the hands keep coming anyways

c9h13no3 said:

VALUE JAM LOLOLOL (not close)

Click to expand...

Are you on cash analysing tilt?

In position he's calling the flop with a full range of one pair hands with backdoor draws to straights and flushes. The turn bricks and he still calls a decent bet, for me this narrows his holdings a lot down to top pair hands or sets. Diamond flush draws look unlikely as we have Ad.
On the river there are no straights, no likely 2 pair combos, an unlikely backdoor flush. it was a 3bet pot so unless he has a set it looks like Kx all the way in which case it looks like a good value spot so I'd bet. C9 looks right, any decent river bet commits us to a call on the end so we might as well jam