$10 NLHE 6-max: aa vs fish nasty river card

villian 62/17 should I bet the river. Maybe I should check first, his ag on river is 8.00. should I just shove on turn?
SB: $10 (100 bb)
BB: $12.75 (127.5 bb)
MP: $10.15 (101.5 bb)
Hero (CO): $10.18 (101.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A A
MP folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.75) 6 4 K (2 players)
Hero bets $0.50, BTN calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.75) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.31, BTN calls $1.31

River: ($4.37) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.91, BTN raises to $5.82

You were defo right to bet the river. Shoving the turn would be terrible.

As played I fold. As loony as villain looks 56/45/44/66/7h8h/6h7h/Ah6h/Ah4h/5h3h/64s/K6s are all defo in his range whilst there is very little air as almost all draws have come in. We pretty much need him to turn a pair into a bluff. As great as the odds are and as cooky as villain appears I don't think this will happen the 18% of the time we need.

Why is check calling so bad on the river?

^ Because there's a lot of value on the river to be had which you don't get when you check because villain gets scared, checks back tons of his one pair hands, and he could also bet really big and bluff us off the best hand a non zero percentage of the time, but mainly because checking just loses value which = losing money

I like betting big enough on previous streets so i can shove this river for a under pot sized bet, theres really very little to be scared of, the only card we really don't like is combo's which have a 5 in them. He rarely has flushes here the way the board ran out, but he does occasionally. He does have a lot of worse kings which he wont fold

How big should it be. Even pot size is not enough for a under pot size bet.

acky100 said:

I like betting big enough on previous streets so i can shove this river for a under pot sized bet, theres really very little to be scared of, the only card we really don't like is combo's which have a 5 in them. He rarely has flushes here the way the board ran out, but he does occasionally. He does have a lot of worse kings which he wont fold

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I think I would check call. Given the amount of outs the vlilain has you can get in for a lot smaller.

For some reason I thought the card combinations in deco's post were his stats. Thought he was a 54/45 (with 44% 3bet) preflop maniac. So he's a station. Perfect time for the bet fold.

puke said:

How big should it be. Even pot size is not enough for a under pot size bet.

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If you're around 100bb's then around pot size always gets the money in the middle by the river, work it out, it works.

I thought our goal is too make a shove or something on the turn. So pot size already make the odds that is not favor to the opponent,right.

acky100 said:

If you're around 100bb's then around pot size always gets the money in the middle by the river, work it out, it works.

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I'm curious. If the Hero had position. How would you play this hand? Whatever other bet patterns you think I could learn from. I over play my hands constantly so this is exactly the kind of holding I get repeatedly boned with.

Say he leads at you all three streets.

If villain Check-calls flop and turn then check-shoves the river(pretty much the same right?)

If villain check-raises flop and whatever combinations after that.

puke said:

I thought our goal is too make a shove or something on the turn. So pot size already make the odds that is not favor to the opponent,right.

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Why the turn? We want to get the money in by the river here, the only times we really wanna get it in by the turn is when the boards super scary and we just want to get it in before cards stop our action. Mostly though like this, we just want it in on river.

what happen to btn stack size in the HH?... been awhile since i used HM, 62/17 is vpip and pfr correct? everybody uses these stats but you really miss the big picture if you don't know the % they call an open. he might appear loose/passive with 62/17 but how much of that is in limped pots?
what % is he calling an open? if its under 20% then he shouldn't have 57 in his range, i don't think and probably doesn't have K4 or K6 either.
it is possible that he has 55 in his range and picked up a draw on the turn. 55 makes a lot of sense...

i probably play it the same then i think i fold to the min raise.