$10 NLHE 6-max: AA, single raised pot vs villains aggression

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orangepeeleo

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poker stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1408119
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $10.37
BTN: $13.26
SB: $3.90
BB: $13.91
Hero (UTG): $12.55
MP: $9.85

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG with A :club: A :diamond:
Hero raises to $0.40, MP calls $0.40, 3 folds, BB calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.25) T :club: 7 :diamond: K :club: (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.90, MP folds, BB raises to $2, Hero calls $1.10

Starting to think it might have been better for me to just get it in here, theres a chance this is some sort of combo draw as QJ + 89 hit this board

Turn: ($5.25) 5 :diamond: (2 players)
BB bets $3.15, Hero ??

After a c/r on the flop I don't think many 10nl villains barrel an EP raiser who just called their c/r, this seems like he might be actually strong rather than drawing, but if he has a huge draw then his line makes sense so meh

My thoughts in bold, i think i should have got it in on the flop, but then i think that if called its either a set or a big draw, i think when he barrels the turn we just might not be strong enough, AK is unlikely and I can't see him betting this strong with KQ
 
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orangepeeleo

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Just stoved it,


Hand 0: 62.438% 62.44% 00.00% 23489 0.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 37.562% 37.56% 00.00% 14131 0.00 { TT, 77, QJs, 98s, QJo, 98o }

hmmmmmm, maybe an easy shove?
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

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No reads on villian?

as a rule, weak players dont call and then start CR draws.

maybe 98c

So he basically has a slow played AK or a set of 77 or TT

With a couple of reads on his preflop we might be able to take out AK.

But being as you hold 2 aces and there is a king on the board and he may 3bet Ak with some frequencey even if its not 100% he is more likely to have a set than anything else.

Did he have a set?
 
acky100

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See a lot of villains doing the small flop raise with any draw or some top pair hand and many of them happy to stack there and then also. Any stats at all?
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

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See a lot of villains doing the small flop raise with any draw or some top pair hand and many of them happy to stack there and then also. Any stats at all?

Thats not true.

Most people at these stakes are passive.

Therefore, without more specific reads its far less likely that an unknown player will aggressive.

Therefore the default line for an unkown would be to call with a draw rather than CR it.

Thats not to say he cannot CR a draw but its less likely and therefore you need to heavily discunt the combos he will do it with.

It becomes somewhat more likely in a 3bet pot but this isnt a 3bet pot.

He could also have JJ or QQ here but id expect a weaker player to donk thise because of the FD.

CR is actually a fairly rare action and almost always the nuts from a weak player.
 
mrmonkey

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One other hand in likely range that beats us is KT. BB in a 3-way pot from unknown villain in 10nl 6-max is very likely to play this hand and could check-raise the flop.

This kind of hand is tough to play without any reads. If we assume villain is competent, not particularly aggressive and he has no reads on us (AK not included here as it's probably 3bet pre):

27.273% { AcAd }
72.727% { TT, 77, KTs, QcJc, 9c8c, KTo }

If we assume villain is capable of doing this with TPGK+:

63.398% { AcAd }
36.602% { TT, 77, AKs, KTs+, QJs, 98s, AKo, KTo+ }

If we assume villain is teh spew:

70.195% { AcAd }
29.805% { JJ-TT, 77, AKs, K2s+, QJs, T7s, 98s, AKo, K2o+, QJo, T7o, 98o }

If this is first orbit after I sit in at table and notice nothing in particular about villain, in practice I probably ship turn and hope he turns out to be one of the latter two.

In retrospect, it's actually probably more +ev to let the rockets go until you have better reads and find a more optimal spot. Yeah, it sucks when you realize that you lost value because villain is a spewtard later in the session, but if villain turns out to be a passive nit then you've saved yourself a buyin and you can still extract profit if he turns out to be spewy when the opportunity presents itself.
 
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orangepeeleo

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Sorry, I put the stats into the stats bit, lost somewhere in the internet lol

40/26/inf, had never c/r, folded BB to a steal (I know this isn't a steal spot but shows he doesn't care about his 10c) 86%, only 40 hands though so kinda makes me want to include KT in the flop range too.
 
acky100

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Thats not true.

Most people at these stakes are passive.

Therefore, without more specific reads its far less likely that an unknown player will aggressive.

Therefore the default line for an unkown would be to call with a draw rather than CR it.

Thats not to say he cannot CR a draw but its less likely and therefore you need to heavily discunt the combos he will do it with.

It becomes somewhat more likely in a 3bet pot but this isnt a 3bet pot.

He could also have JJ or QQ here but id expect a weaker player to donk thise because of the FD.

CR is actually a fairly rare action and almost always the nuts from a weak player.

Sorry dont know why i mentioned the word draw,got confused with donking. In my experience yeah check raises are so much more often top pairs then draws.

With a guy this loose and aggressive, im getting it in though, if he's a fish and i suspect he is, he can definitely get all in with top pair bad kicker etc.
 
brank

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46/26/inf makes me want to get it OTF.

What history do you have with this guy? Are all 40 hands in this specific session? How are you playing at the table?
 
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watchtowel

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I don't think you can call the flop. Your' hand isn't likely going to improve and I don't see many people slow down after check-raising. Get it in or fold and I would think it a nice spot to stack.
 
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orangepeeleo

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Did he have a set?

No idea, I actually mis-click folded this hand (right click setup to fold, i right click to see how many tables he's playing at the exact point it comes to make my decision), my initial reaction was ffs I folded AA, but then I thought about whether i'm calling his turn barrel anyways even if i don't misclick.

I think the right play is getting it in on this flop, given the range I gave him i'm a 60% fav, and he could have AK however unlikely. Just sucked that i was oop in a single raised pot w/AA lol

The only read I could get from him was that he'd gone to showdown like 11% (9) not sure what to read from that given the small sample.
 
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