$10 NLHE 6-max: AA on Paired Board - Can we bet the river for Value?

Villian is unknown.
Do you think I should bet river for value and if so, what size?

888 Poker - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 75.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 4)
BB: 125.1 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
CO: 154.5 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
Hero (BTN): 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:club: A:spade:

fold, Hero raises to 2.2 BB, SB raises to 6.8 BB, fold, Hero raises to 18.4 BB, SB calls 11.6 BB

Flop: (37.8 BB, 2 players) Q:club: Q:heart: 4:spade:
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (37.8 BB, 2 players) T:diamond:
SB checks, Hero bets 19.9 BB, SB calls 19.9 BB

River: (77.6 BB, 2 players) 3:heart:
SB checks, Hero ?

Could bet 50% on the river?

Villain's range could consist of low pocket pairs, jacks, AK etc.

* Only really losing to AQ, QJ, QT (would be a full house).

Reasonable villain often doesn't fold to river with AK, AQ, JJ and TT. KK should shove preflop. AA and QQ are extremely unlikely. But with bet on river you can only gather from JJ. AK wouldn't pay. If he had slow played AQ or TT, you would lose all. I wouldn't bet here. May be only if stacks would have been bigger, or pot smaller, to fold then on re-raise...

I probably bet this river his hand plays a lot like 1010 or jacks and you can draw value from the underpairs if he had one that thinks you may be bluffing with ak I say fire maybe 35-45% pot

I agree with what people have said already about villains preflop calling/raising range. I think there is some value from JJ, so a small bet - fold seems okay to me.

Why check the flop? we lose value against kk and jj here.
When villain flats us pre he has to have something which could be Aq and kq but less likely due to qq on board.

I know personally im cbetting on that board with a lot of lower pairs and air hands there. So we are missing value here if you cbet here with air. We are at the top end of our range.

Typically a thinking player can say hey hes checking here he has to have something and when you bet your must be on the weaker. Something to think about.

in summary AP
i think 3/4 bet because we will get called by much worse... if he raises we fold but we will get looked up a lot here with worse against a bad player

Sovhe on flop or raise on preflop i think it would be better

my friend! Do not give the opponent a free card! Even if you do not flop came, then with the hand, you need a rate of 80-85% of the bank! The flop! the check is bad! well, then you have created such a terrible picture!

I would bet all-in!

I think it's good opportunity get some value from weaker pairs, so bet 2/3 pot, and if he raise - fold.

Should you bet river? Its criminal not to bet river. I dont know if I am too loose but because of the pre flop action, he is unknown and 2 SPR I am pretty much never folding this hand.

If I play this hand :
Bet flop , check turn n see what happen, if he check back ,easy river bet

Why check the flop? we lose value against kk and jj here.
When villain flats us pre he has to have something which could be Aq and kq but less likely due to qq on board.

Umm... yes please.

Flop check on the rainbow board is fine. You're unlikely to get 3 streets, so going for 2 and checking the flop is fine when there's no draws present.

Bet 42-44 on the river.

I thinking betting 50-60% on river will be called. Your check on the flop actually gets more value from villain. So I think check, bet, bet is fine line.

Only prob is if check jams on you. But if he played it like that, bravo to him. Get value on the river there!

stoke

Bet flop look like u c bet ,turn check if he have q ,will bet here even he have set u still have 2 outs, if he check back on turn river value bet !

Pre flop looks OK to me. I am cbetting this flop almost always unless i have some read or history with my opponent. Its so unlikely that he has AQ(only 4 combos of those hands) and its so unlikely that he called a 4bet with KQ or even KQs and for any other Qx hand to call a 4bet OOP is bizzare. I am almost certain that we are looking here at TT+ AK and sometimes 88 and 99 and they all call the cbet of 1/2 the pot(AK is opponent dependent). Check the turn when he calls the flop(cause he probably wont call the second barrel) and bet small again on the riv for value.

When you check the flop and a T hits i think betting for value on the turn or river is fine but i would go for the turn check river bet cause its just hard to get 2 streets of value when a T comes unless he has specificly KK and he probably 5bets or shoves that pre.
Betting the turn now he folds his 88, 99, and he continues only with JJ or sometimes KK( if he played it that way) and everything else you are behind. If he can hand read at all he would probably lead the riv himself if he has you beat so betting there on the turn in such a small SPR pot can get you in a tough situation.
If you check the turn i am either betting for value or calling(against a shove i would think long and hard but i probably fold)

As played i would also check back the riv cause do JJ and KK really call here ? And what size can you bet thats not pot commiting? If he shoves over your bet on the river you are getting sick sick price and there is no way he is bluffing in that scenario. I just dont think worse hands call a bet on the riv.

The biggest mistake here is in my opinion not cbeting. It would probably get you 2 streets of value rrather then one if you are ahead. You get almost always a free riv and you decide there what you do depending what the action is.

If i had to pick one hand he could have in this spot i would say JJ.