$10 NLHE 6-max: AA monotone flop with nutflush draw

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Ubercroz

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$10 NL HE 6-max: AA monotone flop with nutflush draw

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 28/21/3

Okay, so I figure that I probably have the best hand here, but he may be slowplaying something.
Is there value in betting on the flop?
What hands does this guy flat a 4bet with?
If I do bet, what is a reasonable amount, given that I have the nut flush draw even if I am behind?
The real question is how do I get value out of this hand if I am ahead and how do I prevent myself from being in a bad spot past the flop if something bad happens?

poker stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 542994
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (MP): $11.10
CO: $11.45
BTN: $9.95
SB: $9.75
BB: $9.85
UTG: $11.35

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is MP with A A
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.30, 3 folds, BB raises to $0.60, Hero raises to $2, BB calls $1.40

Flop: ($4.05) 3 7 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero...
 
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Okay, how much, and why?
And if they have a non flush will they call?
Why end the action here if they have a non flush and are not likely to improve could more value be attained by checking and betting the turn-which looks more like a bluff and may get a call?
 
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baudib1

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Bet $3.33. Assume that they have large pair type hands here...if they have a spade they will call. You still might get a call from, say, two red Queens but they won't put a cent in the pot if another spade rolls off.
 
cjatud2012

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Okay, how much, and why?
And if they have a non flush will they call?
Why end the action here if they have a non flush and are not likely to improve could more value be attained by checking and betting the turn-which looks more like a bluff and may get a call?

Well if a fourth spade falls, you're not going to get any action anyway, so bet now and get some value from jacks, queens, and kings.
 
Stu_Ungar

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Well if a fourth spade falls, you're not going to get any action anyway, so bet now and get some value from jacks, queens, and kings.

Pretty much this.

They either have a hand they like or a hand they dont like.

but if that 4th spade falls, they really wont like their hand.
 
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baudib1

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Basically you should play this hand like you have the immortal nuts...the problem is this flop is incredible for you and well, not so great for too many other hands. This is a 4-bet pot so there are very, very few flushes they can ever have here (AsKs is impossible, for instance). Can they really have KsQs, or 99/77/22? possible I guess but unlikely and you're obviously drawing live even against the very unlikely combos of hands that beat you here.

AxKs/KsKx/QsQx will call a bet on this flop and maybe other overpairs as well. If they happen to catch a non-nut flush you want to stack them, start building the pot.

I can even see an argument for open-shoving this flop.
 
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Ubercroz

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If my hand is so good and a spade kills the already dead action why does it hurt to check the flop and allow a bluff on the turn given it will not be a spade more often then it will and their hands are not likely to improve over mine? Suppose they hit a pair and bet. Wouldn't that be better than no action at all?
 
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

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If my hand is so good and a spade kills the already dead action why does it hurt to check the flop and allow a bluff on the turn given it will not be a spade more often then it will and their hands are not likely to improve over mine? Suppose they hit a pair and bet. Wouldn't that be better than no action at all?

imo the villain just won't be bluffing that often after we've 4-bet this pot and we have position. The only hands that will bet on the turn (if it's safe) are ones that would call a bet on the flop anyway, such as queens or kings. It just doesn't seem worth it to check.
 
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baudib1

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If my hand is so good and a spade kills the already dead action why does it hurt to check the flop and allow a bluff on the turn given it will not be a spade more often then it will and their hands are not likely to improve over mine? Suppose they hit a pair and bet. Wouldn't that be better than no action at all?

It seems that you don't understand why we bet in poker in the first place, or that you don't understand the dynamics of 4-bet pots. 4-betting is exceptionally strong and it's standard for a lot of players to check to the raiser no matter the flop, especially with a strong hand after getting 4-bet. In 4-bet pots, assume the holdings are large pairs or big A-hands. Since you have AA, large A-hands are less likely, so villain has TT+ a huge percentage of the time. The action is hardly "dead."

I could see checking back on a dry flop but checking this flop is really awful for a lot of hands. If villain has two red Queens he might not love this flop but will reluctantly call a bet. He could be trying to "trap" you with two black Kings. Don't wait for them to catch something, you have to figure they have something pretty good to begin with, and yes a fourth spade will roll off often enough to kill any potential action.
 
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So the reason I'm getting for betting is that this is a 4bet pot and this guy may call a bet. What hands is he flatting a 4bet with? KK- probably not. AK... I guess but that's pretty unlikely too. QQ/JJ okay maybe but, probably JJ more than QQ. But people are more likely to shove than flat with those hands at the micros. Middle pairs and small pairs are pretty likely if he missed the flop then he's done with the hand if he hit then I'm on the draw no big deal I'm not a big dog even to a set. I think the most likely hands are middle/small pairs and suited overcards. Given that there are not a lot of flush combos and most of what he's has here is essentially dead on the flop with a few that are ahead I think betting will fold most hands and get tons of action from the hands that beat uswhich is a smaller number. Most of what is head will still pay on the turn and anything that's behind may bluff the turn if we check behind the flop. I'm not saying checking is the obvious correct thing to do I just think there are some merits to it. I'm not even saying checking is right against eryone but against a the SB flatting a 4bet who is clearly pretty weak given the preflop min 3bet there may be some value to it here. I do get what your saying and I did bet the flop which resulted in a fold which made me consider options outside of that considering the strength of my hand.
Betting most of the time is right maybe I'm just sad I couldn't get more out of him but it's always worth thinking about better ways to make money on a hand and the reasons why we do what we do.
 
Stu_Ungar

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So the reason I'm getting for betting is that this is a 4bet pot and this guy may call a bet. What hands is he flatting a 4bet with? KK- probably not. AK... I guess but that's pretty unlikely too. QQ/JJ okay maybe but, probably JJ more than QQ. But people are more likely to shove than flat with those hands at the micros. Middle pairs and small pairs are pretty likely if he missed the flop then he's done with the hand if he hit then I'm on the draw no big deal I'm not a big dog even to a set. I think the most likely hands are middle/small pairs and suited overcards. Given that there are not a lot of flush combos and most of what he's has here is essentially dead on the flop with a few that are ahead I think betting will fold most hands and get tons of action from the hands that beat uswhich is a smaller number. Most of what is head will still pay on the turn and anything that's behind may bluff the turn if we check behind the flop. I'm not saying checking is the obvious correct thing to do I just think there are some merits to it. I'm not even saying checking is right against eryone but against a the SB flatting a 4bet who is clearly pretty weak given the preflop min 3bet there may be some value to it here. I do get what your saying and I did bet the flop which resulted in a fold which made me consider options outside of that considering the strength of my hand.
Betting most of the time is right maybe I'm just sad I couldn't get more out of him but it's always worth thinking about better ways to make money on a hand and the reasons why we do what we do.

I see people flat with QQ KK AA AK all the time, well probably less with AA but certainly KK QQ JJ AK

KK QQ JJ all fear AK

AK fears everything but cant fold being as the flop might have an A or K on it.

The only way I can explain people doing this is that they are newbies. THey dont think what hapens to the pot AFTER they call a 4-bet. So they call, the flop comes, they have cards (which they think are pretty decent) and then it strikes them that the pot is large and they just dont have all that much experience in 4bet pots (TBH I would really count this as a 3bet pot rather than 4-bet) because villians reraise was a min bet rather thna 3x bet.

In a 4-bet pot really the pot should be $5 on the flop with $5 remaining in stacks, so make sure your 4-bets are $2.50 rather than $2. This way you have 1 pot sized bet left so SPR theory takes over and you just shove, and he looks at that flop and thinks, "I have decent cards, its only a pot sized bet, what was the point of calling if I am going to fold to one bet? He could be bluffing.. damn it I call"
 
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