$10 NLHE 6-max: aa flop vs raise should I all in here

villian 26/1 passive afterflop

BB: $7.71 (77.1 bb)
UTG: $2.64 (26.4 bb)
MP: $10 (100 bb)
Hero (CO): $11.83 (118.3 bb)
BTN: $4.42 (44.2 bb)
SB: $13.29 (132.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A A
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 2 folds, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65) 6 2 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.43, BB raises to $1.18,

A passivise villain just ch/raised you alarm bells should be going off. He's not going to ch/raise draws. It's not likely that he raises TT/JJ/QQ after calling with them preflop though he may on occasion. His range is going to pretty much sets (9 combos) and a few overpairs (let's discount them by 50% and say 9 combos). So basically we beat 50% of his range. Problem is that if we raise he probably folds most, if not all, of what we beat. Since he's so passive, I'd probably call the flop raise and fold to a turn bet on any not Ace turn.

Way gross, but all the overpairs are in villain's range. I could easily fold TT here, but aces have significantly more value. I like WV's plan, but I'm just worried that we're discounting TT-KK too much here.

And yes, KK could be in villain's range, given how little he 3-bets. I can't count how many times I've heard "wait for the flop to make sure there's no ace, then get all in" from fish.

problem is if we call he is just going to keep betting with KK i think.

c9h13no3 said:

Way gross, but all the overpairs are in villain's range. I could easily fold TT here, but aces have significantly more value. I like WV's plan, but I'm just worried that we're discounting TT-KK too much here.

And yes, KK could be in villain's range, given how little he 3-bets. I can't count how many times I've heard "wait for the flop to make sure there's no ace, then get all in" from fish.

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Could be. I just wonder how often he'll stack those overpairs if we 3bet the flop. I'm sure QQ/KK stack but does he get all-in with TT/JJ? I think the real question for if we should call the flop raise to fold the turn is how often he barrels those overpair hands.

I think they're calling with most of them hands cause omg they has overpairs! but im not sure how often they're actually raising them on the flop anyways. Villain does have a shorter stack, folding isn't gonna be bad and probably the best play if losing a stack in a close spot makes you play bad afterwards, shoving all in could also be good (probably what i'd do most of the time given that sets are so hard to make and he's likely a bad player.

I would definitely push all in to that bet. The chances that he has 2s, 6s, or 9s are pretty slim overall. I'm thinking he has an overpair, queens or kings. Definitely can't lay down aces when the cards are already low.

If villain only does this with QQ, JJ, and sets, we still have to stack off. Sure, villain is passive, but are we ready to say he never raises the flop with an overpair?

Idk, I dont think its a big mistake to stack off here, especially since villain is a little short. But its close, and I expect to be shown a set about 50% of the time.

Read on why villain is passive postflop? Number of hands on villain? CR%?

Given his very fishy stats and non-full stack and super dry board I'm happy to get it in here unless we have ultra solid reads on his passiveness.

I'm shoving because let's face it even if he is ever bluffing it will be a rare site to see him double barrel his air. Meanwhile if he is overvalueing his overpairs there are many scare cards for him on the turn, I want to get it in whilst his overpair is indeed an overpair. I think the risk of him folding a high card turn is far greater than the risk of him folding TT to our 3bet.

This is actually a situation I love to have a big hand in. I'm not sure what your style is, but I am aggressive and will raise pre-flop with a wide range if I am likely to have position PF.

There is nothing better than having a poor player who is sick of folding his hand in the BB and raising him again with a big hand. If you are the aggressive pre-flop type, his range is WIDE here. Poor players already have a wide range, then add to it the frustration, AND add that fact that 3x the BB may seem like a discount to him. He already has a third of the bet in the pot, that will further widen his range.

Its a very standard play in his eyes, you raise in position and follow up with a continuation bet on the flop. You could just as easily have KQo as AA. His possible range isn't limited to over pairs and a possible set IMO. He could just as easily have a big card with a 9, or some type of connectors with a 9 in it. Hell, if you have been running over the table enough, he may be trying to bluff. I understand he is very passive post-flop, but that doesn't mean a check-raise on a very standard play is a big hand.

I'm moving all in over top. Against a poor player, I would say you have the best hand 70-80% of the time. If he caught a set, then oh well. Sometimes big hands lose, but I think its a losing play in the long run to fold in this situation.

I see a lot of folks like to shove here.
Can we calculate it using mathmatics, etc equity.
I used to like all in here. But I feel that only very strong hand will call me, as our 3bet definitely tell people that we have a really strong hand. I am not sure if in the long run we will get benefit from it

Anyway if the equity is positive, I really like to all in here, as it is simple.I do not want too much headache

puke said:

Anyway if the equity is positive, I really like to all in here, as it is simple.I do not want to much headache

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We're calculating equity, we're just not showing our work.

And the equity calc just tells you this: if he does this with an overpair and sets we have a profitable shove. If he does this with only sets, we're screwed. Prove it to yourself.

So its just a matter of opinion. How many overpairs do you think are in villain's range?

He probably has overpair, or middle pair with dr.

c9h13no3 said:

We're calculating equity, we're just not showing our work.

And the equity calc just tells you this: if he does this with an overpair and sets we have a profitable shove. If he does this with only sets, we're screwed. Prove it to yourself.

So its just a matter of opinion. How many overpairs do you think are in villain's range?

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I dont think he ever has a middle pair with a draw here, well no middle pairs can have draws here but i dont think he ever has a middle pair here either, atleast so rarely you can forget about it completely.

Not even A9 because he is passive to raise this hand, right.So most time it will be a overpair or set . Then with so narrow range is it still worth shove here?

acky100 said:

I dont think he ever has a middle pair with a draw here, well no middle pairs can have draws here but i dont think he ever has a middle pair here either, atleast so rarely you can forget about it completely.

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I think you should fold, if he is passive postflop he ain't doing this without the nuts or close, and I believe he would call you down with and overpair, so, I think he has a set here pretty much every time.