$10 NLHE 6-max: AA facing river donk shove

villain (200 hands) 18/15 3b 5% FT3B 62% (5/8)

Merge - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

CO: $10.69
Hero (BTN): $11.35
SB: $13.77
BB: $10.96
UTG: $11.84
MP: $8.87

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has A:diamond: A:club:

UTG raises to $0.30, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.90, fold, fold, UTG calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.95, 2 players) 8:diamond: 4:club: 7:diamond:
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.30, UTG calls $1.30

Turn: ($4.55, 2 players) 2:club:
UTG checks, Hero bets $2.40, UTG calls $2.40

River: ($9.35, 2 players) 9:club:
UTG bets $7.01, fold


if we give villain a 3b calling range of 88-JJ, AQs, betting flop and turn is standard. when he donk shoves river he could only be doing this with 88 99 right? AdQd is likely c/r flop and TT JJ only get called by worse donk shoving flop so clear fold yes?

Bet sizing is too small on flop and turn.

3b pot we dont have to bet as big to get stacks in?

Right and yet you're folding when he wants to get stacks in???
Make up your mind.

His range is like strong draws/overpairs/sets on the flop/turn and he's not folding any of them so take the opportunity to get the $$s in the middle now.

you must have better reads on villain than just his stats

wat draws are in his 3b calling range oop? we also have blockers to FD's with the Ad

I like folding tbh but it's hard to answer without more info, which you surely must have after 200 hands?

trying to clear a bonus so wasnt paying attention really. something I need to work on tho but yes would be easier with reads

meh i still like calling the river

WVHillbilly said:

Right and yet you're folding when he wants to get stacks in???
Make up your mind.

His range is like strong draws/overpairs/sets on the flop/turn and he's not folding any of them so take the opportunity to get the $$s in the middle now.

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Villain's line has an impact on his range and our commitment -- surely the money goes in better when it goes bet/bet/shove than bet/bet/call.

How often is villain playing with 2 diamonds, busts his draw on the river and thinks "But ooh! I can represent a club flush instead"?

Obv villain dependent but must feature some fraction of his range, esp after xc/xc

in case you missed this point

Tyler69 said:

wat draws are in his 3b calling range oop? we also have blockers to FD's with the Ad

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He has pretty much no diamond draws in his range except maybe KQdd.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

8 games 0.005 secs 1,600 games/sec

Board: 8d 4c 7d 2c 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.000% 25.00% 00.00% 2 0.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 75.000% 75.00% 00.00% 6 0.00 { 99-88, KdQd, KdJd }


if anyone feels different about that range then tell me. personally dont think KJ is even in there and 77 likely should be added as well if hes flatting 88 to the 3b pre

Add KK and we have %43 equity.

This is a snap and it's not even close. With thousands of hands that say he doesn't call oop with suited hands, and never does this with TT+, and always calls 88-99 vs the 3bet, then sure, we can fold. 200 hands saying he's tight = snap for me.

+1 to betting bigger everywhere. He c/c flop. He has a pair. You have perceived draws. You have plenty of action-killers to come. I often bet big on flop/overbet shove turn in these spots.

ChuckTs said:

Add KK and we have %43 equity.

This is a snap and it's not even close. With thousands of hands that say he doesn't call oop with suited hands, and never does this with TT+, and always calls 88-99 vs the 3bet, then sure, we can fold. 200 hands saying he's tight = snap for me.

+1 to betting bigger everywhere. He c/c flop. He has a pair. You have perceived draws. You have plenty of action-killers to come. I often bet big on flop/overbet shove turn in these spots.

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Yes. We need to be good 30% and there is no REALISTIC range I can come up with that leaves us wanting to fold to the shove.

The only problem is I think this player is going to be so unbalanced in this spot it's probably not exploitable to fold.

I'd expect this guy to flip up KK like never.

I think this is a classic "I'll call because you're repping too narrow a range" while villain is thinking, "Zomg i has the nuts."

how often is a random villain at 10nl ever just flatting KK oop?

just saying

WVHillbilly said:

Bet sizing is too small on flop and turn.

Click to expand...

ChuckTs said:

+1 to betting bigger everywhere

Click to expand...

how much are u betting with air/draws?

and taken into account we only need to be good 30% it is a call. but really dont see how KK can be just added to his range like that at 10nl

To me this reeks of set of 8s or 7s or AK-A10c. I can see at this level this guy slow playing set or flatting the flop and catching the flush draw with 2 overs so calling the turn and catching.

Flop bet was just ok... Would not mind a pot size bet but amount ok.

Turn I bet the pot at least.

River fold.


All of this is against this villan only looking at stats and not knowing if he is capable of making this type of move with two overs. Obviously if I think he is capable of putting a move on with a scare card I am putting my chips in there but most of the time after I fire two rounds and the villan shoves in front of me unless I have stronger than 1 pair I am 2nd best.

i mean obv. standard is to call and realistically we can't construct a range of more than like 12 combos that we should fold to but it's such a retarded line by an unbalanced player.

baudib1 said:

i mean obv. standard is to call and realistically we can't construct a range of more than like 12 combos that we should fold to but it's such a retarded line by an unbalanced player.

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Har, that's what I say to myself when I call a river shove with top pr... praying he is donking it off... and then he shows nuts...

I don't see how this is can be a fold. Villain doesn't look like a donk that will show up with lots of nonsense and he doesn't have many busted FDs. I think it is evens between 10s-Ks (I see lots of sneaky flatting with kings) or a set. with the money that is already in the pot I think it is an easy call. 10s-Qs call 3bets a lot.

watchtowel said:

I don't see how this is can be a fold. Villain doesn't look like a donk that will show up with lots of nonsense and he doesn't have many busted FDs. I think it is evens between 10s-Ks (I see lots of sneaky flatting with kings) or a set. with the money that is already in the pot I think it is an easy call. 10s-Qs call 3bets a lot.

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We want villain to have busted flush draws.

If he's only shoving with value hands we're going to be beat a lot. Why is it donkish to show up with nonsense? Do you think it's better to have a balanced range here or a narrow value range?

I think it is donkish to show up with nonsense after a river shove here. After barreling the flop and turn would a decent player expect to fold out many hands donk shoving the river? Hero's range is narrowed to big overpairs and at 10nl you aren't going to try and fold those hands out on a board like that.

As well as that I see little chance of him having a busted FD giving the preflop action and Ad blocker. Wouldn't expect SDs in his calling range either. I see only sets or overpairs here. I think only his value range has made it to the river unless you expect small SCs which I wouldn't.