$10 NLHE 6-max: 99 OOP: My cbet gets raised. What next?

nabmom

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What are the factors I should consider when planning my next move on this flop after my cbet is raised?

Merge - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: $11.65
BTN: $5.48
SB: $11.27
BB: $2.54
Hero (UTG): $10.00
MP: $9.50

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has 9 9

Hero raises to $0.30, fold, CO calls $0.30, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.75, 2 players) 6 J 2
Hero bets $0.37, CO raises to $0.84, Hero???
 
tenbob

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Well, have a think about this yourself. What range of hands raises you, and what is your equity against that range ?

Do you know how to assign a range, and calculate your equity ?
 
JOEBOB69

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Need stats, notes,# of hands played
Think about what tenbob said too.
 
nabmom

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Sorry about the lack of details...

I only had 13 hands with this player. From those few hands, player is 38/9. Haven't seen a single hand of his.

Going back over the other hands he played before this, and from his VPIP/PFR ratio, I don't think he's bluffing much since he's basically passive.

I guess his range certainly has low/mid pocket pairs and suited connectors. Ax and Jx for sure. So he could easily have a pair of Js, flopped a set, or has a flush draw. Lots of hands that could beat me.

But that's my off-the-cuff guesses. I don't think that I know well how to assign a range (beyond looking at the VPIP/PFR and figuring out based on Poker Stove which cards tend to match those numbers). Equally iffy on how to calculate equity. Pretty much, with this flop, unless I catch one of the two remaining 9s (and a 9 of diamond wouldn't be a good card for me) I'm pretty much always behind everything but a bluff.

Right?
 
tenbob

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Sorry about the lack of details...

I only had 13 hands with this player. From those few hands, player is 38/9. Haven't seen a single hand of his.

Going back over the other hands he played before this, and from his VPIP/PFR ratio, I don't think he's bluffing much since he's basically passive.

I guess his range certainly has low/mid pocket pairs and suited connectors. Ax and Jx for sure. So he could easily have a pair of Js, flopped a set, or has a flush draw. Lots of hands that could beat me.

But that's my off-the-cuff guesses. I don't think that I know well how to assign a range (beyond looking at the VPIP/PFR and figuring out based on Poker Stove which cards tend to match those numbers). Equally iffy on how to calculate equity. Pretty much, with this flop, unless I catch one of the two remaining 9s (and a 9 of diamond wouldn't be a good card for me) I'm pretty much always behind everything but a bluff.

Right?

Nice. Pokerstove makes things awful easy sometimes and lets us forget ourselves. One upon a time i done it manually on excel, (lol manually) but its a fantastic excercise.

Ranging is not an exact science, unless you have several thousand hands on a player, so go ahead and plug your estimated range into pokerstove, and post the results.
 
JOEBOB69

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At this level i take the assumption that most players are passive unless showdowns/stats over a sample show other wise.So vs a unknown i fold because i'm not giveing a unknown credit for playing a draw that agg.
 
dj11

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Since I can easily play 38/9 what it can also mean is that the guy is feeling lucky and hit bottom pair, puts you on AK, and is testing you.

Even tho you have few hands on him, what has he seen about you?

Check his stats for a flop raise %...remember that 9 is preflop....
 
Deco

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In practise I probably call as I can't resist good odds. Probably best to fold though. Even if he does have AdTd or something he still has >50% equity and can throw us off on the turn if he keeps betting.

I vaguely remember filtering for calling minraises a year back and discovering it was a big leak of mine.
 
tenbob

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In practise I probably call as I can't resist good odds. Probably best to fold though. Even if he does have AdTd or something he still has >50% equity and can throw us off on the turn if he keeps betting.

I vaguely remember filtering for calling minraises a year back and discovering it was a big leak of mine.

Understood. One of my leaks as well, but calling in practice is horrible, leaves us OOP in a draw heavy bloated pot with second pair, with 2 streets left.
 
bgomez89

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Well, have a think about this yourself. What range of hands raises you, and what is your equity against that range ?

Do you know how to assign a range, and calculate your equity ?
This. So I'm probs going to fold
 
nabmom

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Since I can easily play 38/9 what it can also mean is that the guy is feeling lucky and hit bottom pair, puts you on AK, and is testing you.

Even tho you have few hands on him, what has he seen about you?

Check his stats for a flop raise %...remember that 9 is preflop....

How much meaning is that number going to have after only 13 hands? FWIW, he's only raised on the flop once in the hands that I saw with him up until that point.
 
nabmom

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Nice. Pokerstove makes things awful easy sometimes and lets us forget ourselves. One upon a time i done it manually on excel, (lol manually) but its a fantastic excercise.

Ranging is not an exact science, unless you have several thousand hands on a player, so go ahead and plug your estimated range into pokerstove, and post the results.

So that range is about 14.6 percent of hands. Compared to my 99, PokerStove gives me about 54% equity.
 
WVHillbilly

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So that range is about 14.6 percent of hands. Compared to my 99, PokerStove gives me about 54% equity.
And if you were on the river or villain was all-in calling would be fine BUT with 2 streets left to play from oop you should fold.
 
B

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bet/folding is the nuts at low stakes
 
jbbb

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****ing hate people who min raise like this.

As played, with 13 hand, I fold and take a note he min-raised a dryish flop once. If he does it again I might start to re-adjust or make his range a bit wider (mid PPs, FDs, middle pair).
For now just fold and observe his play in other hands.
 
C

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Id fold and wouldnt really think about ranges with such a small sample as it makes post flop decsion oop with no real info other than vill is passive pre flop impossible. And lpp's are the type to raise jx here and 50/50 on calling a 4bet as they love tp.
 
Tino11

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****ing hate people who min raise like this.

As played, with 13 hand, I fold and take a note he min-raised a dryish flop once. If he does it again I might start to re-adjust or make his range a bit wider (mid PPs, FDs, middle pair).
For now just fold and observe his play in other hands.

This!
 
forsakenone

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it is a fold, however, I have a lil problem with your cbet size. it is too small, only 1 overcard there, you should bet bigger on flop.

when you cbet half the pot it tells me you are scared to put money in the pot, so I might raise you light sometimes. this however might not be the case.
 
sixpeppers

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I think folding is a usual best and safe play, but 3betting could be reasonable as well. While its unclear whether the 3bet itself is for value or as a bluff it can define your opponents range moving forward a bit more and you do have 2 outs if you determine that range is Jx+. I would assume there is a decent chance they fold to the flop raise as well which is the main reason it can be a good play, but from an equity standpoint it is probably better to 3bet the flop with overcards or something like A2 A6
 
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