$10 NLHE 6-max: 2 pair facing river shove.

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Goathair

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 50/48/2.9

Just wondering if i am better off check/calling here on the river? As played, can i fold after betting the river? Villian over 110 hands is 50/48 with an AF of 2.9, 3 bet is 27% (66% on the button). How do you like 4 betting here preflop?

Hand Converted by Ace Poker Drills Poker Training Software

NL Holdem $0.1(BB)
SB ($14.76)
BB ($17.34)
HJ ($10.18)
HERO ($23.57)
BTN ($11.2)

Dealt to Hero A J

HJ Folds , HERO Raises To $0.3 , BTN Raises To $1.05 , SB Folds , BB Folds , HERO Calls $0.75

Flop ($2.1) 6 K A
HERO Checks , BTN Bets $1.5 , HERO Calls $1.5

Turn ($5.1) 6 K A 2
HERO Checks , BTN Checks

River ($5.1) 6 K A 2 J
HERO Bets $3.5 , BTN Raises To $8.65 (all-in), Hero????
 
AlfieAA

AlfieAA

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4Bet would be good here since you are oop and you dominate his range...then you can lead out otf and build a nice pot.....think all he can have here is QT, dont think he has enough fold equity to bluff shove....tough one, could prob find a fold here, but he could have anything.
 
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rumsey182

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what is your sample over?

You could 4 bet, you could play it up to the river the same if you want as well but i would actually try to check call the river unless your confident he can call river with A10 type hands but more so if he will call with Kx which i doubt , you can likely get him to stabs from busted FD's and other hands that have no way to win unless they bet, but this is dependent on the villain and a little on timing.

He seems to have aggro stats but without context oh how many hands anything i say on that is useless
 
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Goathair

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The numbers i have on him were over 110 hands.
 
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Salmon5

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$5.15 to win $22.40 is an auto call???

to me jacks make the most sense, i doubt he's 3betting q10, maybe if its suited...

maybe hes having another stab at it, bluff shove???

i think i would have called, whether that's right or not...
 
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joebobfred

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I pin him for jacks personally.
 
Mr Sandbag

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Well it seems that the river made his hand. So his range could look like: 9 combos of KJ, 6 combos of JJ, and 16 combos of Q10. I exclude AA, KK, 66, 22, K6, A6, and AJ here because he is likely to continue betting the turn with any of these hands.

You lose to approximately 71% of his range, so you need about 3.5:1 on your money to call. You're getting slightly worse.

Folding isn't bad. Call if he's known to bluff rivers like that with air or if he's aggro enough to 3bet J6 preflop.

EDIT: Sorry, it's actually 6 combos of KJ. So you only beat about 21% of his range, which is about 4:1. You're not getting 4:1, so folding is even better now that I've corrected the mistake. Still call if you can realistically put any worse hand or air in his range.
 
Last edited:
hackmeplz

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1. 4b pre and it's not close
2. snapcall river, he's a 50vpip you can't fold 2pair when there's no straight or flush possibilities. He's got a ton of worse 2 pairs, probably some Ax even, and then a ton of bluffs as well. Also this is the easiest value bet in the world on the river ch/calling would be awful would ch/shove before ch/c.

Although I'm sure you wouldn't have posted the hand if you didn't lose it, so I'm sure he had it this time, but don't be results oriented. He's a maniac and you lose to very few combos of hands.
 
Mr Sandbag

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1. 4b pre and it's not close
2. snapcall river, he's a 50vpip you can't fold 2pair when there's no straight or flush possibilities. He's got a ton of worse 2 pairs, probably some Ax even, and then a ton of bluffs as well. Also this is the easiest value bet in the world on the river ch/calling would be awful would ch/shove before ch/c.

Although I'm sure you wouldn't have posted the hand if you didn't lose it, so I'm sure he had it this time, but don't be results oriented. He's a maniac and you lose to very few combos of hands.

I doubt a player as aggressive as this would check the turn with any Ax hand. His turn check narrows his range quite a bit. Highly doubtful he had top pair on the flop or better than that on the turn. River hit his hand unless he's been known to bluff like this with air.
 
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DunningKruger

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In regard to the OP's questions:

1. No. Checking would be with the intention to jam over.
2. Certainly not.
3. I'm diggin' it.

Sandman, you need to be good less than 23%. And there's only one combo of JJ there btw.
 
Mr Sandbag

Mr Sandbag

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In regard to the OP's questions:

1. No. Checking would be with the intention to jam over.
2. Certainly not.
3. I'm diggin' it.

Sandman, you need to be good less than 23%. And there's only one combo of JJ there btw.

Yeah just caught that. Based on that range then, he'd need 3:1 to call. So calling is good. Thanks for pointing that out. DK.
 
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DenverDave

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I have learned that many players can't bluff shove the river. Most of the time they are strong here. I said Most. I have had a few players shove the river with air. But not often enough :)

How many hands do you have him going to showdown? Has he W$SD? Watching players when not in the hand is great info later. I am learning to do this better, so I only mt 4 tables now. But that is just me.

I also agree that a 4bet here is called for. He is opening so wide as your AJo that you are ahead of his range even if you use 66% vs AJo in PS or Flopzilla. I might have c/r him on that flop and look to get it all in.

But hey I'm a gambler, Mr. Vegas.... points for knowing the movie reference :)
 
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HoldOnTheRail

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Im I the one that likes just to fold preflop? I dont care about his big 3bet. Hes dumb right? Was he calling your 4bet before. OOh 100 hands. But I think he would call 4bet with shitty hands. And you are going to miss flop(usually)! What you are going to do? Put your money in on flop? I 4bet him here if Im sure he isnt going to call me with all the tilty shit. But thats just my thoughts:) But damn calling is better than 4betting against these type of players that I think they are. Fold/Call. I can tell you I sometimes have 25% 3bet over 100 hands. That just happens, but his 50/48 makes it clear.
 
John A

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I like the pre-flop call. The guy looks relatively passive post flop, so I'd prefer to keep his weak range in the pot instead of turning your hand into a bluff or get him to fold worse pre.

As played I'd lead river weaker once he checks that turn. He probably has total air or second pair hands at that point, and you want to give yourself every chance to induce him with worse or get him to call w/ second and 3rd pair hands.

Sucks he guttered balled the QT, but you can't fold the river.
 
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DunningKruger

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^^ The bet on the river should definitely be smaller. Excellent point. Regarding pre I'd like flatting the 3bet more if we had position. Not that I mind it here but I'm not convinced OP is increasing his expected value by doing so.
 
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micromoi

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i hate the call preflop with AJ its such a weak hand against any 3beting hand. u did call preflop, flop and turn so i dont see what is the question there going there u have to call the river. the question have to be asked on the flop is an ace enough? what range u put on your opponent? for me the answer is fold preflop, fold on the flop fold on the turn.
 
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