$10 NLHE 6-max: 2 Pair facing shove on the river from TAG

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orangepeeleo

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$10 NL HE 6-max: 2 Pair facing shove on the river from TAG

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 18/15/10

Villains stats are over 97 hands

poker stars, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

Hero (BTN): $12.60 (126 bb)
SB: $12.90 (129 bb)
BB: $10.35 (103.5 bb)
CO: $13.25 (132.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with A
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3
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CO folds, Hero raises to $0.40, SB calls $0.35, BB folds

Flop: ($0.90) 4
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A
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9
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(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.65, SB calls $0.65

Turn: ($2.20) 3
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(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.80, SB raises to $3.60, Hero calls $1.80

River: ($9.40) 5
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(2 players)
SB bets $8.25 and is all-in, Hero....

Is this an uber easy fold or could this be AT+?? Should i have folded the turn and gave him credit for a good hand?? I can't see him drawing to a straight so the 5 probably didnt help him on the river.

His aggressions quite high but for an 18/15 having an aggression of 10 is a lot different to a 70/30 having an af of 10 isn't it?? His 3bets 3% which is 1/37 chances so surely he 3bets AK/AQ in the sb? I don't like 3betting those hands oop so its conceivable that he might not either and would just cold-call to see the flop.
 
Makwa

Makwa

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I'm thinking he has A10+, maybe A9 (ouch). His AG factor suggests he doesnt like to let hands go -- he may be trying to get you out w an AJ or something...
A set is possible too... still I would call him down here.
Cant fold the turn it gave u As up and him likely nothing, he did not raise on flop.
 
Stu_Ungar

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I'm thinking he has A10+, maybe A9 (ouch). His AG factor suggests he doesnt like to let hands go -- he may be trying to get you out w an AJ or something...
A set is possible too... still I would call him down here.
Cant fold the turn it gave u As up and him likely nothing, he did not raise on flop.

Would a set not check the flop hoping to induce action on the next street?
 
Makwa

Makwa

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Would a set not check the flop hoping to induce action on the next street?

Often yes. With a scary board should push a set, but not the case here, soo..
I get yr point.
 
Blazing_Saddler

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This is exactly why I don't play unsuited rag aces even from the button. It is marginally + EV at best.

I think you have to call as played. You beat more Aces than you lose to. I don't see a player with stats like that calling raises out of position with rag aces. Not even A9. I know it is a small sample, so suited small aces are possibly in his range. I would say more likely AJ, AQ, or small pocket pair.

Having said that, I Read an article somewhere about the dreaded turn min raise. I can't for the life of me remember where it was now, but it went in to depth with stats from micro stakes games, and it was almost always either a draw, or real strength.

Tough one.
 
cjay142

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This is exactly why I don't play unsuited rag aces even from the button. It is marginally + EV at best.
4 handed I think you are raising any A on the button

I think you have to call as played. You beat more Aces than you lose to. I don't see a player with stats like that calling raises out of position with rag aces. Not even A9. I know it is a small sample, so suited small aces are possibly in his range. I would say more likely AJ, AQ, or small pocket pair.
I think a TAG is going to be 3betting A10+ preflop especially 4 handed because he doesnt want to be playing it out of position. Those hands play much better pre flop than post flop.

Having said that, I Read an article somewhere about the dreaded turn min raise. I can't for the life of me remember where it was now, but it went in to depth with stats from micro stakes games, and it was almost always either a draw, or real strength.
Yea the turn raise definitely is not a good sign. Because of his high AF Id probably make the call. Id say youre either way behind a set or beating Ax.
 
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orangepeeleo

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Thanks for the replys guys, this was mainly for me to figure out if i was spewing with 2 pair hands really, the middle of this week was a bit shitty for me and i was doubting whether i was making the right calls with hands like this.

He ended up having a set of 9's so stu you were right about the check on the flop, its a totally dry board so you've got to factor in that a set might check to let you catch up... which i did lol but the general feeling i think is that against a TAG range i was right to call on the river, i think we see AJ+ a lot more often than sets or A9 here.

Might have to have a look for the dreaded turn min-raise, i think it's a beluga theorem or something lol
 
Deltafrost

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Might have to have a look for the dreaded turn min-raise, i think it's a beluga theorem or something lol

^ this

shouldnt have read results but i didnt know you had posted them already. I still think I'm calling this from a 10 AF but I'm not too happy about it.
 
Blazing_Saddler

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^ this

shouldnt have read results but i didnt know you had posted them already. I still think I'm calling this from a 10 AF but I'm not too happy about it.

AF can be a misleading stat, 97 hands isn't a great sample size to go off either. Plus he is a tag, so when he enters a hand, he is going to have good cards mostly. So by default he will be more aggressive.

I'm not saying Ignore the information, but don't use it to base a decision on. AF on the river would be a better stat, and Aggression frequency on the river.
 
Deltafrost

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I would prefer Afreq but we dont have it. I didnt mean that simply because he has a 10AF that we were calling, i meant that with what we have, 2 pair vs a very agressive opponent in a dry board like this I am not afraid to call him (if he hadn't c/r'ed turn)

However, I probably fold to the turn raise because my experience has shown me that ch/call, ch/minraise = monster usually.
 
Stu_Ungar

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What about checking the flop instead of c-betting it?

The SB is tightish for 10NL so he has some kind of hand especially as he is OOP next round.

The c-bet looks exactly like a c-bet. You have very little aganst his range so the checking the flop might have more use.

Then reraise the turn if he bets.

Sets, AK, AQ etc wont fold here, so a call or reraise really tells you that you are beat.

To continue beond that point you really have to ask.. would he continue with AK? if the answer is definately yes.. then you can fire a second bullet. If the answer is mainly no he would put me on a set and fold, then you simply want to check it down.

But the reraise, if he has AK and calls would mostlikely cause him to check the river allowing you to check behind.

As long as you keep the pot under $4 then he has never had correct setmining odds.
 
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bfw0082

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the buy in is so low, this player could have anything, I say you make the call and if you lose, reload and play some more, next time you will more than likely win with two pair, it is a monster unless your opponent nails a set, the betting at those stakes is unpredictable so GL tryin to label people,

limp AA, but raise 10J suited, who knew... :p
 
Deltafrost

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What about checking the flop instead of c-betting it?

The SB is tightish for 10NL so he has some kind of hand especially as he is OOP next round.

The c-bet looks exactly like a c-bet. You have very little aganst his range so the checking the flop might have more use.

Then reraise the turn if he bets.

Sets, AK, AQ etc wont fold here, so a call or reraise really tells you that you are beat.

To continue beond that point you really have to ask.. would he continue with AK? if the answer is definately yes.. then you can fire a second bullet. If the answer is mainly no he would put me on a set and fold, then you simply want to check it down.

But the reraise, if he has AK and calls would mostlikely cause him to check the river allowing you to check behind.

As long as you keep the pot under $4 then he has never had correct setmining odds.

And this is exactly why I know i'm still on the first level of thinking in poker.

Everything you said makes perfect sense when i read it, i just wouldnt have thought of it like that while i was playing.

Thanks Stu
 
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