$10 NLHE 6-max: 17/13 Vil Calls PRE, OTF, OTT on dry board.

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mr_kommpa

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poker stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 2700622
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $10.87 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 18, 3B: 6, AF: 3,0, hands: 9723
SB: $10.20 - VPIP: 67, PFR: 33, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 3
BB: $10.00 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 14, 3B: 3, AF: 2,0, Hands: 3491
Hero (UTG): $13.75 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 19, 3B: 7, AF: 3,0, Hands: 79728
CO: $10.13 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 13, 3B: 11, AF: 1,7, Hands: 62

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG AsAc
Hero raises to $0.40, CO calls $0.40, 1 fold, SB calls $0.35, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.30)4c5hQd
SB checks, Hero bets $0.80, CO calls $0.80, SB folds

Turn: ($2.90) Tc
Hero bets $1.80, CO calls $1.80

River: ($6.50) 5d

Hero?!?!?

Let me explain my thoughprosses.

When he called me PRE I put him on something like

(77-99)-(JJ-QQ) KQo+ AJo+ AJs-AQs (KJs-KQs)+

So, Now OTF, I think he would call with something like

KQ, TT-QQ, AQ, and maybe AK

Now there is one guy behind him so I think i can take Ak out of hes range and maybe even TT. I dont really have a read on this guy but with QQ or AQ I think just calling is fine.

OTT:

When he calls I only put him on these hands

KQ-AQ QQ or TT (suite does not matter)


OTR

I get confused. I think I should bet something like 1/2 pot because he has alot in hes range that would call one bet but check behind and I dont really want to X/F so I rather B/F because than I am sure I am beat.

Thank you for any feedback on my though or just on the hand! :)
 
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Patrikas

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Betting is probbably most valuable, because there are many hands that will probabbly check behind, and he might bet AQ for value. which would put you in really uncomfortable position, so B/F seems ok
 
Figaroo2

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Any particular reason why he can't have 44 or 55 in the hole? Normally QQ AQ 3bets for value. Id put him on QK or JQ as played.
there are a whole bunch of Qx that can call here so bet something he can call which isn't pot committing if you get raised id bet between 25-40% pot and fold to a shove.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Easy shove? Villain almost always has Qx here.

Size your bets better so you can pot/pot/shove.
 
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mr_kommpa

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I dont think he has that much Qx in hes range. I only think he has KQ or AQ, Now if you look at hes stats (even though its just 60 hands) they look kind of like reg stats. Thats why I dont think he has alot of Qx hands. And Im not even surr if he would call a 1/2 pot or shove here with KQ or
AQ? The problem with checking though ia that he would value bet it, like patrikas said. And figaroo, would everyone really 3Bet for value here with AQ? I think AQ is doing pretty bad against alot of UTG opening and its sort of a drawing hand. But I think many would, yeah.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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I dont think he has that much Qx in hes range. I only think he has KQ or AQ

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
25 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 45QT5
AsAc 72.00% (18 wins, 0 ties)
AQ, KQ, 44, 55, TT 28.00% (7 wins, 0 ties)

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
13 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 45QT5
AsAc 46.15% (6 wins, 0 ties)
AQ, 44, 55, TT 53.85% (7 wins, 0 ties)

It doesn't matter that villain has very very few combos of Qx in his range. If he only has AQ, we're still better off shoving than check/calling (since vill will prolly check behind with weaker Qx hands).

The only way this is a check/call is if we think villain is capable of double floating with AJ/AK/KJ and then turn them into a bluff on the river.
 
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mr_kommpa

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huh, Didnt think it would be that close :p.

But do you think he would call a shove here with AQ? Im not sure.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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huh, Didnt think it would be that close :p.

But do you think he would call a shove here with AQ? Im not sure.
I think he's more likely to call a shove with AQ than to shove himself. And we're not check/folding. So rather than check, get value-towned by his monsters, and have him check behind with most of his Qx/JJ type range, I'd just bet ourselves and give him the opportunity to make a mistake. We lose the same amount to his monsters, but we give ourselves a chance to make more money from his Qx/JJ range.
 
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