$10 NLHE 6-max: 130bb Deep - Top 2 Pair on River Facing Shove - FOLD

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Eisenheim

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 29/20/1.5

888 Poker - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG): 211.5 BB
CO: 107.6 BB (VPIP: 26.32, PFR: 18.42, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, hands: 39)
BTN: 134.3 BB (VPIP: 28.99, PFR: 19.53, 3Bet Preflop: 7.46, Hands: 172)
SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 19.57, PFR: 13.91, 3Bet Preflop: 2.44, Hands: 233)
BB: 114.4 BB (VPIP: 20.69, PFR: 17.24, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 59)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q:diamond: A:spade:

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) A:diamond: J:diamond: Q:heart:
Hero bets 5.6 BB, BTN calls 5.6 BB

Turn: (18.7 BB, 2 players) 8:spade:
Hero bets 15 BB, BTN calls 15 BB

River: (48.7 BB, 2 players) 7:spade:
Hero bets 36.5 BB, BTN raises to 110.7 BB and is all-in, fold,
 
c9h13no3

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I find it hard to believe that a player with solidish preflop stats would slow play a straight on such a wet board, and his flat calling range on the button has a lot of flush draws and other such floaty hands in it. Maybe he can have JJ in his range here, but I'm calling cuz I don't believe him.
 
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joe777

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The possibilities are the villain miss a flush draw and trying to bluff or he could had A J pre.
 
Aces2w1n

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It's hard for him to bluff given the board texture

Could be someone with AK overplaying. Prolly a set or a straight.
 
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braveslice

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So you need to have 27% him having worse, basically a bluff hand. Given scary board, he will not bluff 27% of the time on the river. Given stats, I think this person is good bluffer candidate though, but 27% I don’t think so.

Hmm, I hope I calculated % righ. You need to call 74 to win 268 righ?
 
Figaroo2

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I think its a call

It is going to be very difficult for him to be bluffing here, at these stakes few players are able to 3 barrel and then fold to a raise on the end especially after investing over 50bb.
I'd never consider a bluff if I was the villain here most just can't fold a single good ace let alone top two pair, so I'd strongly consider him to have a value hand here.

My concern is that he could be betting here with a worse 2 pair like AJ or JQ of which there are still 8 combos of each. Also consider the CHOP as well.
Beating us are 3 set combos of JJ and 16 combos of KT, I think QQ+ raises pre and can usually be discounted here especially as it looks like he likes 3betting.
I think 88 also folds on the flop so its the 16 combo's we beat v 19 combos we lose to.
My equity calc says we have 48% equity here and as we are getting the right odds it should be a CALL.
 

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Eisenheim

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My concern is that he could be betting here with a worse 2 pair like AJ or JQ of which there are still 8 combos of each. Also consider the CHOP as well.
Beating us are 3 set combos of JJ and 16 combos of KT, I think QQ+ raises pre and can usually be discounted here especially as it looks like he likes 3betting.
I think 88 also folds on the flop so its the 16 combo's we beat v 19 combos we lose to.
My equity calc says we have 48% equity here and as we are getting the right odds it should be a CALL.[/quote]


Good info thanks.
I also think 910 could be in his range here.
Have noticed a lot of people at these stakes don't like raising the turn as a lot of people fold.
I agree with your comments on QQ but think he can show up with it here ocassionally.

Thoughts?
 
John A

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It's a fold. I'm mostly be putting him on 9T. I think KT will probably raise most turns and some flops. But 9T fits his hand perfectly. Someone with low aggression isn't going to be calling two streets and then jamming with a worse 2 pair nearly often enough for this to be a profitable call. Also someone with low aggression isn't going to jam this deep with a busted draw. It just rarely rarely happens w/ this size pot.

It was a good fold, and NH.
 
Figaroo2

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Yeah I missed 10 9 that's another full 16 combos that beat us.
JQ is also probably just calling on the end rather than shoving.
John is usually right.
 
John A

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Yeah I missed 10 9 that's another full 16 combos that beat us.
JQ is also probably just calling on the end rather than shoving.
John is usually right.

Your hand reading has really improved. You're going to miss some sometimes, everyone does.
 
Figaroo2

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Which is why your implied odds are better with straights than flushes of course, this is another example...
 
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Someone with low aggression isn't going to be calling two streets and then jamming with a worse 2 pair nearly often enough for this to be a profitable call. Also someone with low aggression isn't going to jam this deep with a busted draw.

Can you switftly explain where the range is from "low argression" to "optimal" to "high"?
 
John A

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Can you switftly explain where the range is from "low argression" to "optimal" to "high"?

At 6max, roughly < 2.5 is low, 2.5-3.8 optimal, 3.9+ high.
 
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te7ris

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Thanks! we also have the AF stat.. Didnt see that the first time around. Is that total-AF or postflop?
 
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Eisenheim

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The 1.50 stated above is overall.

If you're interested the rest are;

F: 1.
T: 2.5
R: 1

Small sample of 170 hands though so don't think the street by street stats give too much info.
 
IPlay

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Yeah I missed 10 9 that's another full 16 combos that beat us.
JQ is also probably just calling on the end rather than shoving.
John is usually right.

You and John already covered this pretty well but I do want to add that when we are counting combos on the river we need to think about the entire hand and not just that street.

For him to have all 16 combos of K10 on this river it means villain is calling all those combos pre vs an UTG 3x raise. Since he is on the button and a little bit loose, I'd say we can give him all suited combos of K10 and maybe half the combos of K10o. So 4 suited combos and half of the 12 unsuited combos put us at 10 combos of K10 in villains preflop range.

Now lets go to the flop, the way it plays out I think we can keep all combos of K10 in his range that he had preflop.

Now the turn, I don't think is the case. This board is pretty wet and scary and the UTG raiser is firing a nice sized turn bet showing a ton of strength. I think K10 should be raising this turn almost always. So lets say he raises the turn with the K10 combo 75% of the time and the other 25% he flats. So since he flatted the turn I would take the combos of K10 in villains range to be ~3 instead of 16 when we break it down street by street. If I was villain on the BTN I'd have 0 combos of K10 on this river with the way this hand played out. UTG is showing too much strength and too many bad river cards can come to slow play K10 past the turn.(Though at high stakes I'm sure you want to have K10 on the river for balance but I'm just a low level grinder.)

Rather you agree with the exact math I did here or not my post is more about the concept of narrowing the amount of combos of a specific hand street by street instead of just saying "He can have XxXx on this river so that is 16 combos" we can say "He can have XxXx on this river but he only calls with those combos pre sometimes, only calls flop with that combo sometimes so while he has this combo in his range, it is only a fraction of that combo."
 
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To be honest, I'm taking a different approach here. Instead of the math or equity which sometimes we get obsessed with, I just want to look at the streets and hands he can have.

Pre flop hes calling a 3x from the BTN against you UTG. Yes hes looser here, but not crazy loose. I do not believe all of the offsuit K10 combos are here but all of suited ones are. QQ and AA aren't here, both of those hands are 3-betting almost always since the image of the BTN is to raising a little lighter. Does your opponent really have 109 off here (later streets will explain why)? Thats way too loose in my opinion to be calling and the only combos are 109 suited if that. AJ for sure and AK is also viable, but I think AK raises from the BTN (but some will flat, so lets leave it). QJ for sure, and I think 22-JJ is all possible here as well, along with some combos of KX suited,AX suited, JX, diamonds and a few others of course.

On the flop, two diamonds, very connected clearly. UTG bets 2/3 and the BTN flats. This discounts all the pairs he could have except JJ and MAYBE TT, except given his stats I doubt TT with the T of diamonds is calling here. K10 is still here, as well as 109 combos and all the diamond combos and hands like Q10 and MAYBE J10 runs one off but given stats im not sure.

Now the turn is an 8 of clubs which rarely improves the villian. We again bet almost 2/3 pot. Does K10 flat again? Or 109 flat when it hits? Why would you want to let two pair run another card for free or AK (if you have 109) to get a chance to counterfeit you for cheap?I do think K10 sometimes flats for value and you have blockers to block a split, but why do it for a cheaper price? That story doesnt make much sense as if we did have a massive hand like KQ of diamonds, we cant draw for cheap ever and the BTN has to know that. You are showing WAY too much strength to let your hands potentially catch up. Even if he had JJ, it makes even less sense for a set to not raise here as JJ is so vulnerable to hands that even you can have like K10 suited or two pairs that look to improve him on the river (like if another Q or A ran off on the river) but it actually kills him. I just don't see the view in flatting a ton of his range here, and he cant have KQ of diamonds (you block that) and he cant have anything that really is a monstrous draw since those hands are all basically blocked EXCEPT K10 of diamonds, thats it.

River is a 7, which is a blank to you. You again bet big, and he jams the river. What about this story makes sense? How does he jam JJ if he did have it when he can be dead? AJ, QJ, AK most likely just call, and so many missed hands fold. But his bluffs (diamonds) may feel the only way he wins the pot is if he jams it in, but so much of this range is gone on other streets. He doesnt have A hand like A10 of diamonds since its blocked, QX diamonds into a bluff is blocked, same as JX. So this limits his range to what? K10 combo or more specifically of diamonds, or an overplay which is actually a bluff of AJ or AK maybe even A8 of clubs or something like that. You just show so much strength that the range on the river is so thin that, in my opinion, he had you dead from jump street or you have him beat and he feels there is too much money to give up in the middle. I would have called I think for sure, just because I do not believe this story at all given the texture of the board and given how many hands he cant have going into the river. You also have particularly good pot odds to call, which may be more enticing to run it off as well.

Just my take on the hand, good luck!
 
IPlay

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To be honest, I'm taking a different approach here. Instead of the math or equity which sometimes we get obsessed with, I just want to look at the streets and hands he can have.

This is what really matters though. Even your post can be broken down mathematically to be shown the correct answer from your perception of villain ranges in the hand. You basically did what I did but you didn't use actual math but guesstimates.

I'd also argue that villain is flatting atleast equal to if not more combos of 109 pre then he is K10.
 
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arod6893

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This is what really matters though. Even your post can be broken down mathematically to be shown the correct answer from your perception of villain ranges in the hand. You basically did what I did but you didn't use actual math but guesstimates.



I'd also argue that villain is flatting atleast equal to if not more combos of 109 pre then he is K10.


I just don't like math to be the be all end all. Because in the long run I don't think its always the right answer. And I would its actually agree it could be more after re reading my post, but still doesnt change too much into the turn here.
 
c9h13no3

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I just don't like math to be the be all end all.
My math is done in units of $, so I don't mind it being the "end all."

In all seriousness, "logic" like the quote above is terrible. You gain intuition for spots like this by plugging it through the math enough times that you get a "feel" for profitable spots.
 
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Good teachers never say: now we do math
For the simple reason that many people don’t like math. Problem solving or something along those lines is better word to use. Names argue; not the substance
 
Andrey Smirnov

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For me its fold. By the way, your sizings are way too big. Betting river isnt necessary. We only beat aces weaker than our.
 
Figaroo2

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For me its fold. By the way, your sizings are way too big. Betting river isnt necessary. We only beat aces weaker than our.

His sizings are fine to charge the multiple draws on this wet board and I would be betting here for value on the river all day, its very neccessary to get max value out of your upper medium strength hands...
You think AJ QJ maybe even AK isn't going to call the river here?
 
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For me its fold. By the way, your sizings are way too big. Betting river isnt necessary. We only beat aces weaker than our.


If he checks and the opponent shoves, what do you do?

You have to bet the river here only because if you completely "give up" with showdown value as strong as his given how the hand went, I would jam it in with K10 or 109 if I was the villain, which then gives you a tougher spot then the one hes in now which I do think is still a fold either way.

Also, after reading over this hand, there is a bunch of merit of check/raising the flop. When you lead out you're very rarely bluffing completely on this board here, and your range is supposed to be stronger then his on the BTN. If you bet here all the time in spots like this, given you have 150+ hands together, that means you're never bluffing here. You have to do more balancing of your range by checking sometimes and betting sometimes. I think by check raising and getting called or re raised, you can know exactly where you're at instead of getting semi trapped as well.
 
IPlay

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If I am villain and I get check raised on this flop I am folding bottom two and top and bottom 2 pair all day and only continuing with AQ/JJ/K10 and monster draws.

When UTG check raises this flop his range is sooo stupid strong on that we have to fold most of our 2 pair combos. I also think if we check river and he shoves we have an easy fold considering it would be a 2x shove. I do think I am never checking this river though because AJ/QJ may check back and I don't think many villains are going to bluff this river vs UTG when we have shown this much strength and all the draws missed. So while there is EV in checking I think betting is much more EV. River is tricky but I like how Hero played it.

For me its fold. By the way, your sizings are way too big. Betting river isnt necessary. We only beat aces weaker than our.

Don't bet that set on the river. We only beat hands weaker than ours. I don't understand your logic here? FWIW I would bet slightly smaller on turn and river but I don't think hero's sizing is a mistake.
 
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