$10 NLHE 6-max: 10NL flopping a set vs 16/16 Vil. 4 to straight + flush OTR

poker stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2669344
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BTN: $16.06 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 16, 3B: 7, AF: 3,0, hands: 128
SB: $9.75 - VPIP: 35, PFR: 29, 3B: 24, AF: 10,0, Hands: 82
BB: $31.55 - VPIP: 50, PFR: 50, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 2
UTG: $10.91 - VPIP: 10, PFR: 7, 3B: 7, AF: 4,0, Hands: 30
MP: $7.65 - VPIP: 27, PFR: 27, 3B: 50, AF: 0,0, Hands: 11
Hero (CO): $12.72 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 19, 3B: 7, AF: 2,9, Hands: 60634

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with 3c 3s
UTG raises to $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.30, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.75) 3h 5s 2h (2 players)
UTG bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.55) Jd (2 players)
UTG bets $1.00, Hero raises to $2.50, UTG calls $1.50

River: ($6.55) 6h (2 players)
UTG bets $2.10, Hero ???

What do you guys think?!? Can I really beat anything here? Should I have raised the Flop?

Yeah,you sould raise the flop is very drawing,call the river,can have QQ-AA

Yeah, He could have a flush draw or a straight draw with either an A or an OESD with 44. So I belive I should have raised the flop.

But OTR, Dont you think he would just check with QQ-AA? I mean he doesnt beat anything I would call with obw, And when I raised the turn he should be thinking that my range is pretty strong and would not fold to 1/3 bet right? So weird.

raise flop. as played, i'd raise turn a larger size. as played, river we're getting a good price so call. he could be blocker betting with QQ-AA trying to set the price cheap. but you're right he will have us beat here pretty often.

Two thoughts:

Seems he is inviting us to call river or simply its a scared bet.

Its a hard decision but I would choose calling here because of price.

I would have played the same. It is not necessary to raise on the flop.

Easy call on the river me thinks. We have to pay off villain here if he got us beat. :embarasse

raise the flop and try to get it in on the turn. Your getting paid by a bunch of overpairs and maybe FD's. since he raised from UTG i dont really see too many 4's in his range and the river bet of 30% he places looks pot controlling so your definitely gonna call it. Raising on the river though wuldnt ever be a good idea.

This is a snap call and I would expect to win the hand.
From his stats we can already see he is tight aggressive.
I would give him most likely 66+ preflop, maybe any pair at a push, so its a dream flop for us.
He either has an overpair or two high cards and he is simply barrelling flop and turn. The only hands we need to fear are JJ 44 and high heart combos which are a very small part of his range and which are likely to bet bigger on the river.
The river bet is a blocker/thin value bet from an overpair/top pair hand that doesn't want to miss value from your Jx hands. I would fully expect him to fold to a large river raise but he might call a small raise with kk or aa.
Don't be scared here.

My thoughts when I were reviewing this hand were that I should have raised the flop.

My though when I played the hand were that this flop didnt hit much of hes range. I think he would raise something like (88-TT)+ KQ AJ+ from UTG, so I wanted him to hit a AKQ or J OTT. Because its alot more combos of AJ+ and KQ (64 combos) than there are of 99+ (36 combos). But what I didnt think about were how much more value I could get out of those hands and that sometimes (or maybe most of the time) AK atleast suited will call because they got a wheel draw and equity against any smaller pair. And there are a Flush draw on board so I should have charge the draws aswell, even though thats even less comos.

Anyways, After that I think the turn raise is fine, maybe could have raised $3 but Imo $2.5 is good.

I am not happy OTR, What I have atlest noticed is that often when somewhat good opponets are betting out OTR without having the lead, They are doing it because they dont want to miss value. If he would have checked I would have Bet out small to get some over pairs or J to call. Anyways, Because I got so good odds OTR I could not let this hand go so I called . And he showed up with AhTh.

So I think the only real misstake I did whas OTF, If none is saying that calling 33 there is bad play? My pre-flop game is not optimal

Snap call. UTG raiser 10/7... FD is a very small % of his range AKs & AQs ( 2 combos) and The only pair that beats you JJ.

OK, just saw the result. If he's 10/7 I was assuming he would raise like 5% UTG (99+, AQ). So, seems he isnot positionally aware...he's raising the same range all over.

Call the river... You shall raise the flop.

mr_kommpa said:

My pre-flop game is not optimal

Click to expand...

What would be optimal?

I'm happy with the 33 call.. remember these guys with tight range are easier to play.

We often know where to stand in the hand, though I would've called thinking we are still good, sometimes you can raise the river if you know villain is tight enough because against these odd guys who don't chase and have AA KK it means u lost value and you didn't bet cuz you are scared.

I think overall perhaps lost value by not betting the river.. I know the flush is there but think about how often our villain will chase down with a flush



Also opponents can lead out trying to control the cost of showdown.



*PS his vpip pf don't mean too much with only 30 hands though* so I guess calling is correct, but if our villain had 200+ hands with those stats raising would be right.


Our villain could put us on some kind of jack if he had overpair as well so could get called as well with worse as well than our set.

nah