$10 NLHE 6-max: 10NL 6max zoom - call turn shove with top two pair?

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roddy1977

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 21/17/2

poker stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 max Zoom

Hero (BTN): $23.40
SB: $20.21
BB: $9.92
UTG: $13.15
MP: $16.54
CO: $23.80

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with Qs Kd
1 fold, MP raises to $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.30, SB raises to $1.30, 2 folds, Hero calls $1

Flop: ($3.00) Qd Jd Ks (2 players)
SB bets $2.86, Hero calls $2.86

Turn: ($8.72) 7d (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5, SB raises to $16.05 all in, Hero ?

River: ($40.82) 7h (2 players - 1 is all in)

Should I call this shove? Against a range of JJ+ and AK Pokerstove reckons I'm a 63% favourite (which surprised me!), though can I narrow his range down further? Would he play AA or AK this way? Maybe he might if he has the Ace of diamonds.
Anyhow, what do people think? :)
(PS I don't have any meaningful stats on the villain)
(PPS I probably should've folded preflop, but had position and decided to call in case he was squeezing light).
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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How many hands is the 21/17/2 over? Do you have a 3-bet percentage?

This is pretty gross, being 200 bb's deep. Your hand is also pretty under-repped, as a hand that call/calls preflop is usually going to be pretty weak. With the flush draw coming in I think I call it off. But it's likely one of those gross situations where it doesn't matter much what you do because it's close (and therefore likely neutral EV).

I also want an to raise the flop, but I'm hungry and haven't had coffee yet, so I'm gonna abstain from arguing that. :p
 
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thatgreekdude

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I think the potential flush induces me into calling this, it's pretty close though.
 
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tomnovember

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You shall fold preflop.

As you have called, I can see barely few flops better than this. Call.
 
H

hffjd2000

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Agree, should have fold preflop.

Postflop, personally its all force moves.
 
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roddy1977

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Thanks for the opinions guys. Yeah, as I said, I probably should've folded preflop. I called his shove and he turned over QQ - I didn't think it about long enough, if I had I might have found a fold. Not sure how many sensible players would have shoved with AA or AK in that spot (though I guess that's the point - it's microstakes and a lot players aren't sensible! - though whether that's enough grounds to justify calling, particularly when I don't have any evidence that villain is particularly fishy, is debatable).
@ c9h13no3 The stats I had were only based on 30 hands and tbh I can't remember his 3bet %, though I don't think it was high.
 
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