Originally Posted by lukyl
Fold, as said before, only beating a bluff.
The massive overbet is frustrating because only two hands do this and thats the nuts or complete air, which i assume is really the only reason you feel so compelled with this hand.
all i can say is that 5 years ago, you snap since it was an inexperienced players version of a river bluff, but today... not so much, i'd personally say it's more weighted to thinking players now who only do this with the nuts.
See this was my dilema... I actually don't see him doing this with his nutted/monster hands that often.
My thinking in the end was as follows:
Villain just completes from the big blind.. given the squeeze spot I can remove AA, KK and probably QQ from his range.
I block JJ and TT.
He has some 4 x hands in his range however BUT as I donked the flop multiway, does he really call with a 4 that often here with 2 players left to act behind him inc. the pre flop raiser?
Once I went through this his boats, trips and better two pairs are all pretty much removed from his range.
This leaves the flush being the only value hand left in his range for shoving like this, but does villain shove a flush here given the paired board and the fact it is a pretty scary river card for my range he beats here, this seems more like a standard value bet spot for a thinking player.
This left inexperienced or poor recreational players, who could pull the trigger here as a river bluff to represent spades or to take advantage of the weakness shown by my check on the river often enough.
After some consideration and most of my time bank I made the call for villain to show QJo taking down a nice sized pot.
Even winning the hand however I try not to be results orientated, hence the review. I agree with what you guys are saying above in hindsight but in the moment my thinking was as above. If possible can you point out any major flaws in my thinking here?